In 2021 Public Bank wrote that management targeted Mexico to breakeven by year end. Breakeven utilization set at 30%. Latest report shows utilization is 35%-40%. However, there have been 2 continuous quarters of share of loss for JV as shown in the P&L. The results over the past 15 quarters have been inconsistent. Given the company's fortune depends on commodity prices, and with the run up in share price since the last few months, IMO the risk reward is no longer appealing.
Good point. Can you share how you deduce that JV was making profit but peso depreciation turned it into a loss? I couldn't find those info. When I checked the Mexican Peso to Ringgit chart, it shows Mexican Peso has been strengthening against Ringgit from 2019 to mid 2024. The recent peso depreciation happened after mid 2024. But the quarter report is up to Jun 2024 only. In other words, the recent peso depreciation hasn't started during the reported quarter (worse to come in next quarter?) Rightfully during the period when Peso was strengthening, it took fewer Peso profit to translate into each Ringgit profit. I wonder how the company turned a favourable forex condition (until mid 2024) into an unfavourable result.
You may refer to Public Bank analyst report issued on 29th Aug.
Mexico operations. On the other hand, AGB’s Mexico operations slipped into a loss of RM0.4m, mainly due to unfavourable currency fluctuations. We gather that exports from its Mexico operations have been increasing steadily and is currently running at a higher utilization rate of 35-40% (previously 25-30%) as the group has started to export full range of products (full cream and filled milk) to US.
Those who claimed to have read the results and said no issue or no mention of loss and accused me of badmouthing were trying to fool people into buying or holding this useless company stock while themselves quietly offloading their shares... Thankfully there are still some honest people around who admitted it's still a loss after so many years. By the way, do you guys notice the same song the management is playing regarding the land conversion, each quarter still the same old song, "still in process of conversion"...oh yea...the debt clock is ticking yo, and the bank interest is also ticking yo!!! Wake-up from the abracadabra hypnosis before it's too late to.... otherwise when one day you suddenly wake up, it will be tripple limit down, then you'll be a true long term investor until it goes to zero...just like the sad story of serbak. By the way I didn't have a single share nor loss a single cent in serbak coz I could sniff the hanky panky from a hundred miles away before the first bad news broke out!!
Thanks for sharing the source. I missed the Public Bank report that “Mexico operations slipped into a loss of RM0.4m, mainly due to unfavourable currency fluctuations” So it means the operation was close to breakeven during Q2.
If I look back past 15 quarters since they started reporting the JV results, not only the Mexican progress was behind time, but the performance was also erratic. For example, loss in 3Q23, profitable in 4Q23, then loss again in 1Q24.
about 65% export market, import raw mat in USD, impact due to weakening USD should be minimum, anyone can shed some lights? Expect better performance by JV as Mexico Peso against USD rebounds.
The boiling water consists of solid earning each year and good prospects of growth. It is about the investor’s financial capability to stay long enough for the final win with consistent Div yield higher than FD.
Exporters esp tech jump due to USD strengthening, about 65% revenue of Ableglob is export, no benefit? Current share price weakness due to DT will hike 25% of Mexico goods? Mex JV reported 1.8mil in Q4 2023, only quarter reported profit in past 1 year.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Cockcroach
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Posted by Cockcroach > 2 months ago | Report Abuse
Howardmark. Stop bad-mouthing a good stock. Please move on.