Posted by Ny036 > 2021-10-14 17:12 | Report Abuse

anyone hv today silicon metal price fr china? drop or up?

Posted by gemfinder > 2021-10-14 17:12 | Report Abuse

luckily closed above rm14

Posted by AJtheGreat > 2021-10-14 17:12 | Report Abuse

I can smell strong rebound tomorrow...

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-14 18:03 | Report Abuse

Ny036, continue sink

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-238.html

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-10-14 18:10 | Report Abuse

Silicon price is at 55000 yuan per tonne now and will likely stay over the 50000 mark until next year. The huge spike to 60000 yuan earlier was not sustainable as the July prices were only 14000 yuan. Pmbtech is still set for huge profits in the coming year.

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-14 18:12 | Report Abuse

Ya, like gloves company, boss continue earn, share price down as this is one off event. Once china operation resume as normal, silicon price will fall

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-14 18:13 | Report Abuse

Genetec ev battery is a long term business

Posted by Great80 > 2021-10-14 18:16 | Report Abuse

Still expensive compare to few months ago Aaron Tan......Still tis company will make huge profit by increasing their production lo....huge demand for silicon is alws there.....aiyooo....u know about business or not?????simply rely on daily silicon prices n try to be smart Prof.Aaron Tan.....no demand no profit lo......got demand make profit lah...

Posted by Mr.Sm Invest123 > 2021-10-14 18:19 | Report Abuse

Silicon shortage: Why semiconductor chips are so hard to find with everything from cars to consoles delayed

https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/silicon-shortage-semiconductor-chips-why-cars-consoles-delayed-explained-1229981

Posted by Great80 > 2021-10-14 18:37 | Report Abuse

Aaron tan....don't try to fool others.....most of them can access any news from anywhere...now demand is greater than supply.....demand alws be there......glove..hahaha....Western countries demand oredi dropped compare to last year.....no demand less profit lo...

Posted by Ny036 > 2021-10-14 18:44 | Report Abuse

can anyone know the reason silicon price drop. since demand is good at least must stay unchange or slightly lower.
i see steel price go up as china goverment ask to reduce production.

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-14 19:34 | Report Abuse

This week already 4 days red. U can see from 15.24 drop till 14.06 .. only RM1 difference . It drops not much compared to last time .. 4days drop RM1 is acceptable for small retracement. The next movement will be big surge up . Tmr is going to happen ?

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-14 19:53 | Report Abuse

Yes sifu lrwoo99

Posted by DJThong > 2021-10-14 20:10 | Report Abuse

Aaron don’t blur blur blur lor

Posted by AJtheGreat > 2021-10-14 20:10 | Report Abuse

Last time its keep dropping for 6 days and climb again to ATH....

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-10-14 20:25 | Report Abuse

Ny036.. Steel prices might be rising but not to the huge percentage as silicon. Steel is only up by 70 to 80% in the last several months. Silicon has surged 400% since July. Its normal for the price to stabilise after the big sharp spike and find its level. I expect the price to remain elevated above 50000 yuan for the next 12 months as forecasted by analysts.

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-10-14 20:31 | Report Abuse

Besides the quantums between steel and silicon is in different ballpark. Steel is only 5000 plus yuan per tonne while silicon is 55000 yuan per tonne. We are talking huge incremental earnings here.

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-14 20:38 | Report Abuse

Many silicon professors come out already.

Posted by a11282879 > 2021-10-14 22:08 | Report Abuse

我的最愛Pmbtech 明天開始要飛了！

Posted by a11282879 > 2021-10-14 22:13 | Report Abuse

喜愛Pmbtech的投資者千萬別被那些負面消息影響，來臨的qr肯定非常漂亮哦！發大財過新年

Posted by Great80 > 2021-10-14 22:59 | Report Abuse

Aaron tan....we all talk with fact....not like u main hentam aje......

Posted by DJThong > 2021-10-14 23:03 | Report Abuse

Aaron blur blur blur

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-14 23:13 | Report Abuse

Tmr PMBTech green green yah

Posted by skyhin > 2021-10-14 23:59 | Report Abuse

USA green.... I think only stable above 14.... I still okie since collect at 11.1x n 11.3x n 11.7x......14.3xx

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 07:08 | Report Abuse

Usa green always bad for klse. Mark my words
And today is friday

Posted by Yogi74 > 2021-10-15 07:26 | Report Abuse

Aaron u dont need to be so worry , let people handle their
Own money

Posted by imvu > 2021-10-15 07:43 | Report Abuse

open gap up limit up ?

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-15 08:35 | Report Abuse

Today may be surge up due to the US market did well

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-15 08:59 | Report Abuse

TO 14.1 .

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 09:11 | Report Abuse

Selling fast haha

Posted by planta > 2021-10-15 09:13 | Report Abuse

Limit up today!

Posted by AJtheGreat > 2021-10-15 09:31 | Report Abuse

Good sign today... Top Gainer all the way.. Yahooo

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 09:38 | Report Abuse

Haha

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 09:41 | Report Abuse

Will be gg if below opening price

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 09:58 | Report Abuse

10am will red. Let u all shiok 30 minutes only

Posted by Hoho22 > 2021-10-15 10:00 | Report Abuse

Sick mentality!

Posted by Highbiscus > 2021-10-15 10:14 | Report Abuse

Will close 15.0 today. Mark my words.

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-15 10:22 | Report Abuse

Noon session will have show

Posted by tapdance > 2021-10-15 11:00 | Report Abuse

Login to i3 once in a while and amused by many interesting comments.

Posted by tapdance > 2021-10-15 11:02 | Report Abuse

My prudent investor friends generally ask about the sustainability of the silicon price and its accompanying impact on $PMBTECH / 7172 (PMB TECHNOLOGY BERHAD), and that has the recent run-up fully reflected the company's prospect.

My BIASED response on -

#SILICON PRICE'S SUSTAINABILITY

1. We saw China's ESG policies disrupting Silicon metal's supply coming. But to say we see China's power woe causing an eruption in Silicon price is an exaggeration .

2. China's ESG policies will not stop. Period. The >70% coal fired energy plant contribution into its power network is an eye-sore to a government that promises to lead the world in carbon emission cut. The ratio has to be brought down.

3. To bring down coal fired power contribution, either Beijing has to shut coal fired plants OR/AND increase renewable energy contribution.

4. Inefficient plants operating in the high energy consuming industries (e.g. steel, aluminium, silicon etc.) will have a hard time surviving thereby reducing/consolidating capacities under a few bigger corporations. Thereby our original thesis.

5. Amongst the renewables, Solar is relatively easier to setup in scale. Solar needs silicon.

6. China commands >70% of global silicon capacity. Repeat, China commands >70% of global silicon capacity.

7. US is pushing hard for Solar AT THE SAME TIME. https://reut.rs/3AbJIJF

It may be true that current Silicon price momentum will slow down upon China rectifying its power disruption. But to say that Silicon price will crash like Gloves' ASP (and therefore suggesting PMBT's prospect to share the same) is not a fair comparison as the underlying demand's sustainability is wildly different.

Based on above facts, one should be able to form his/her own opinion on the metal's prospect.

#HAS PMBTECH'S PROSPECT FULLY PRICED IN

1. I have calculated PMBT's prospective earnings under an optimum situation previously. Namely: 72,000 tons capacity x RMB 60,000 silicon price x 0.65 RMBMYR = RM2.81bn revenue.

2. Considering the operating leverage, at conservatively estimated 8 - 10% NPM, PMBT should earn ~RM225 - 280m pa. i.e. trading at ~11x PE. PMETAL has never touch below 20x after its run-up in 2017.

3. What I did not mention is the possibility of margin expanding further than the norm. Silicon is made of sand. Widely available hence no pricing power/premium.

Other metals such as Aluminium requires Alumina or Steel for iron ore, their raw material price usually correlates positively. Hence after awhile their producers' margins falls back to norm. For silicon, the dynamic suggests it may not. Can management lock-in the ultra high margin? Yes.

4. Coal - which is one of the cost component - price has risen sharply recently hence offseting some of the benefit mentioned above.

5. PMBTECH has 2 more phases to expand. I have no idea if those 2 mentioned phases will be of the same size/volume. Still, it is fair to expect at least the same. Namely, whatever I have accounted above, multiply by 2. Yes, if one desires apply your own discount factor.

6. At mere ~1% global market share based on production capacity, PMBT's cost efficiency is already on-par with those largest China / Europe silicon producers.

7. Management strength. IMO, this is the most critical factor of all. PMETAL has demonstrated its track record through both peak and trough periods. The learning curve was steep. Remember the failed China venture, the less efficient Mukah plant, and fire incidents... all happened when Koon family were less known with less resources.

Today, investors are blessed to have a replica of the 2016/2017-PMETAL in 2020/2021-PMBTECH which is way smaller, less tuition fees to be paid, faster ramp-up and all when the Koon family possesses a lot more resources (i.e. lower risk, faster/higher high-returns).

(ashamed to admit that) I missed PMETAL, and I won't miss PMBTECH.

Lastly, to rewards those who has read this far - there might (or might not) be some minor disappointment from the 3Q FY21 result given the MCO disruption; depending on how huge the offsetting impact of both disruption vs. silicon price movement.

That could be the (last) chance to pound for those who likes to buy the dip.

Posted by tapdance > 2021-10-15 11:03 | Report Abuse

fo ll ow me at te le g ram: tapdance (obscure investment ideas)

Posted by imvu > 2021-10-15 11:16 | Report Abuse

limitup kamon .

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-15 11:17 | Report Abuse

PMBTEch limit up soon

Posted by tapdance > 2021-10-15 11:17 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tapdance/2021-10-15-story-h1592709277-Has_PMBTECH_ran_ahead_of_its_prospect_and_the_sustainability_of_the_Sil.jsp

Posted by Powerplay666 > 2021-10-15 11:21 | Report Abuse

Tapdance.. Finally some reasoned proper analysis rather than the usual nonsense from the naysayers here.

Posted by Highbiscus > 2021-10-15 11:22 | Report Abuse

See !!! 15 go go go

Posted by AJtheGreat > 2021-10-15 11:24 | Report Abuse

Yahooo

Posted by Aaron_tan > 2021-10-15 11:31 | Report Abuse

Same like hengyuan last time many refinery expert come out multiple analysis end up all holland

Now silicone analyst should be the same …

Please lar you not in this line you won’t know much insider details

Posted by Yogi74 > 2021-10-15 11:32 | Report Abuse

Aaron 14..80 thought rm11

Posted by LRWoo99 > 2021-10-15 11:38 | Report Abuse

Pmbtech definitely will hit RM15