everyday drop, klci drop 100 pts it drop, klci rise 100 pts it still drop, it's in downtrend for the pass 1 year after bonus issue, new factory production also not much improve now, capex expenditure will still be high, foreign business below 50% now, crude oil is very high n gonna higher, margin won't be good, don't think this qr get improve, don't surprise for another loss qr. up there many good counter still, look at rubber, construction now, how % already while this whole year plus tomypak keep dropping....
Daibochi is not bad, based on 2nd quarter result. Instead, the 6 months revenue already more than Tomypak's whole year revenue...… Previously since 2006, D is 20% to 30% bigger than T. Now, D is 100% bigger than T.
Long time never see any response from W16Y who always give good comment on T...… Whether you have any good idea to recommend to us ?
It seems like the management is more interested in manipulating the stock price than concentrating on managing the company and expanding the business with the available fund. The current price is too expensive to have a buyback, should have use the fund to improve the business; not keep reporting losses.
Daibochi is also another plastic company is overpriced. P/B > 3.0x compare to other peers trading at 1.X but mediocre result. Fair price around 0.85 only, but traded at above 2.00.
FY18 Net profit & revenue has dropped back to the level last seen in 2007. In other word this company does not even grow after 10 years. In 2007 its adjusted average price is only 0.180. Current price of 0.685 is excessive.
This company is going down the drain due to bad management. Inexperienced leader in this field plus underhanded practices will bring this coming down further
Posted by Jc12345 > Dec 11, 2018 10:41 PM | Report Abuse
This company is going down the drain due to bad management. Inexperienced leader in this field plus underhanded practices will bring this coming down further
The group said in its filing the new Senai plant commissioned in the second quarter of 2017, is having two new major production lines installed, which is expected to start commercial production towards the third quarter of financial year 2018.
Two additional new major equipment are scheduled for delivery towards the end of third quarter of financial year 2018 and these should be ready for commercial production by the first quarter of financial year 2019.
If only investor read and understand “commercial production” .... installation & test run will cost & take up a lot time . Moreover , Depreciation on entire new factory during installation period and only having 2 line running instead of Running full line, it will eventually take a beating on the net profit . However I believe the EBITDA should still be positive.
The company’s financial outlook does not look great at the moment. Profit has substantially gone down after the peak profit reached in FY15 where the company managed to deliver a profit of RM23.1mil. In FY16 profit fell to RM18.4 mil then to only RM9.6mil in FY17. 9m18 profit is only at RM2.3mil with full year profit target at a low of RM5mil only. The under performance in FY18 is attributed to subdued sales (due to lower orders from international clients), increase in operational cost (in particular ink and solvent), higher finance and depreciation cost (which relates to the new equipment recently installed). The reduction of order from clients is a big worry given that the company now has a production capacity of 40,000mt per year vs in FY16 of only 19,000mt. The company would potentially face even lower profit or a loss if it fails to run the production plant at a certain production rate given that the fixed cost now should potentially double vs FY16 (finance, depreciation, overhead, electric costs etc).
At the current share price, the company is valued at a high of 55x PE. At this valuation, all the positive catalysts (or any jump in profit) would have already been priced in.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Tomypak (due to its earnings uncertainties and the lofty valuation) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM10mil to RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
Having updated with management recently, we are pleased with the progress development of its capacity expansion (Fig. 1) and phase 1 of its rationalisation plan i.e. on-going realignment of production process at both its Senai and Tampoi plants. Over the last two years, TOMY has spent approximately MYR111.0m on new printing lines and equipment, which has expanded its production capacity (by 21,000 mtpa; +105%) and allowed operations to operate efficiently in the long term. TOMY has installed a flexographic printing line in 4Q18 to broaden its customer base, as it will cater to plastic packaging customers whose products have short life cycles (for example Gardenia bread). This will add a new revenue stream to the Company per se. Fig 1: Snapshot of TOMY’s plants capacity Source: Company data We understand the significance of transferring some old machines to the Senai plant is to combine them with the new advanced machines at the Senai plant to ensure ample capacity for MNC customers that need a guarantee of sufficient capacity. We believe this will also maximise its production efficiency to produce the orders at one plant and cost savings, in terms of logistic. Management expects to move and reinstall two more rotogravure printing and extrusion lamination machines from its Tampoi plant to its Senai plant in 1H19 (Fig. 2). We estimate the cost for moving those machines (transportation mainly) to be insignificant - less than MYR2.0m. Management also clarified that the second phase of its rationalization plan, which recently commenced in 1Q19, is focused on upgrading and transforming system production processes.
Posted by DickyMe > Sep 27, 2017 09:23 PM | Report Abuse Sorry to disappoint you ozzie75. The chart does not display a positive outlook. I think it may reach my expected price of 60 sen. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Seems long term borrowings increased three fold. One more long hard dip awaiting. Price may dip lower than 60 sen. Posted > 28/03/2018 22:19 ---------------------------------------------------------- DickyMe No offer. See you below 60 sen. Posted > 05/04/2018 21:20 ================================== DickyMe "the bulls are quietly and slowly collecting... " means they are lining up to be slaughtered for Hari Raya Haji. Posted >28/06/2018 10:50 =================================
Aiyoyo, below 60 sen now!!! Already warned couple of years ago..Aiyoyoyoyo....
This company losing money still traded at 1.3x P/B. Ulicorp only traded at 0.3x P/B. Current price of 0.565 is exorbitant. Fair price 0.23 at 0.5x P/B.
shpg22 This company losing money still traded at 1.3x P/B. Ulicorp only traded at 0.3x P/B. Current price of 0.565 is exorbitant. Fair price 0.23 at 0.5x P/B. 01/03/2019 9:26 PM
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
R40s
348 posts
Posted by R40s > 2018-07-19 22:02 | Report Abuse
tales029,
What's your target timeline? And any target price for the next move...?