Please look at LME al price from 30/6/17 - 30/9/17. 30/6/17 - 1,930.25 31/7/17 - 1,916.50 30/8/17 - 2,123.50 30/9/17 - 2,109.50 For abt half the qtr, the LME wasn't even at its peak. Not to mention, commodity companies trade in futures, which mean the rev earned for this qtr was based on previous futures contract.
From 1/10/17 - now, LME hovering around 2,100 avg CONSTANT. final year result, expect to see q-o-q (15% based off avg LME price, y-o-y 22%). RM4.80 with 15% upside, TP = RM5.50
Longterminvestors Hello, what to panic,as investment bank already told you, the main profit will come Q1 2018, pmetal is doing hedging, mean they sell aluminium into the future, so current aluminium price still not yet project into the profit, and two very important cost factor had raised recently, 1)alumina-alumina price is following current aluminium price, in fact it had raised quite a lot recently,2) forex-pmetal sell aluminium in USD so weak ringgit is beneficial to pmetal 21/11/2017 18:58
Hi Wikioon, will the 15% Al price premium directly equates to the same level of profit & share price gain? I hope your assumption is correct too since i am still holding a big chunk
@happy123, profitability will depend on cost saving measures - transportation cost/pre-baked carbon anodes cost. will it translate 15% directly? prob not, im just assuming stuff. but what happens there are further news coming abt? -china further cuts down al production -announcement of special div -pmetal included in klci
I been holding pmetal for long long time, a lot of haters will ask you to sell, forex 4.138 is good but not yet full power boost for pmetal, if you buy pmetal you always have to understand the hedging process,aka forward selling, they will sell most of their metals into the future, they just fulfilling the orders, this helps pmetal to survive deepest aluminium price recession but it affect pmetal respond to increase aluminium price, so it is always responded more slowly to aluminium increase as the orders was sign way back.
It always responded more slowly like 6months behind the real like price, correct me if I am wrong, because the hedge process is complex, sell 80percent in 6 months and 10 percent in 1 year, kind of things.. If you really think pmetal not worth the price then why pmetal not dropping?? Because it is mostly hold by koon family and part of it with banker, moon family is converting their Wa into mother share, similar pattern appear just before the price hovers to today's price around 2.60...no one believe at that time too..But see how all our fellow loyal investors earn with multiple fold price increases
@Longterminvestors , I concurred with your view rgd the hedging policy taken by Pmetal management which strongly help to reduce the volatility of the group's profit n cash flow , this is why Q3 result only increase a little from Q2 which most of us ( me included ) was a bit disappointed or hampa ( in bahasa ) . I consult some professional friends who are with international brand audit house ( they indirectly involved with Pmetal's USD 400mil senior notes ) to clarify the little change of Pmetal's Q3 margin and their explanation confirmed Pmetal's hedging policy and forward selling to ensure stable profit estimation which was presented to the underwriting agency for their USD 400 mil bond sales which was snapped up in the bond market . Plz refer to theedgemarket.com dated 25/10/17 rgd statement released by S&P Global Ratings pertaining "BB" long-term corporate credit rating to Pmetal , in that press re statement , S&P did confirmed the hedging policy taken by Pmetal to avoid volatility and to ensure stable profit n cash flow. I personally will keep my Pmetal holding into full term FY18 and likely continue into FY19 . Cheers to Pmetal . It's yours money and it's your investment decision .
Press Metal - On Track For Another Record Year RECOMMENDED: BUY TARGET PRICE: MYR 5.30 PRICE: MYR 4.75 Press Metal’s 9M17 net profit was within our and market’s expectations. Core net profit grew 52.8% YoY, underpinned by higher aluminium prices and additional production output. We continue to like the company and maintain our BUY recommendation. We also make no changes to our earnings estimates and maintain our DCF-derived TP of MYR5.30 (12% upside).
9M17 earnings – within expectations. Press Metal’s 9M17 core net profit of MYR452.6m was within our and market’s expectations, making up 72% and 70% of our and consensus’ estimates respectively. Revenue was up 30.5% YoY mainly attributable to the additional production output generated from its Samalaju Phase 2 smelting plant (additional 320,000 tonnes of ingots) and higher aluminium price of USD1,922/tonne (vs USD1,570/tonne in 9M16). PBT growth of 26.6% YoY was lower than revenue growth, mainly due to the additional insurance claim in 1H16 of MYR76m. Excluding the insurance claim, core net profit grew 50% YoY on the back of higher revenue.
Maintain BUY. We continue to like the company and maintain our BUY recommendation. We make no changes to our earnings estimates and DCF-derived TP of MYR5.30. Our new TP implies 23x 2018F P/E, which is close to +2SD of its historical P/E – we believe this is justified given Press Metal’s projected 3-year earnings CAGR of 36%. Key risks include lower aluminium prices and a sharp weakening of USD that may hurt its profitability.
@tianjin-may I ask why the price still moving around 4.75 In between , after the Q3 report out yesterday when everyone saying will fly to 5?just wanna hear your opinion
@vimediac your comment really *shake head. correction mode alrdy past, selling pressure was last two weeks. now is consolidation phase. pls look at volume last two days, 14m n 16m range bound 4.65 - 4.85 (avg). some ppl see alot of selling (just bcuz price doesnt go up), i see someone stocking up alot at this range. reason being : 1) for dividend 2) for another round of uptrend in dec
there's still three more weeks till ex-date, why wanna rush to go above 5. investing in stockmarket is not gambling. dont expect you buy stock ytd, tmrw it will go up by 20c/30c.
Very nice sharing from @wikioon and @tianjin , newbies must learn how to be patience for stock investing . Shares price won't keep on going up all the times . Its must consolidate for a while or rest for a while . After that , maybe the company going to announce some good news again to stimulate the shares price . Why have to give up so fast after having bought this counter ? Anyways my target price still unchanged and tetap Rm5.50 - 6.00 before next year Chinese New Year 2018 . Everything need times and patience . Remember, Press Metal always BOLEH dan TETAP BOLEH .Terima kasih banyak-banyak only to Press Metal .
Sell on strength and buy on weakness sometimes are correct or sometimes are wrong but if for Press Metal counter , it's absolutely wrong . Keep on holding its and don't simply give up so fast . Press Metal always BOLEH dan TETAP BOLEH .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tronx
1,172 posts
Posted by tronx > 2017-11-21 19:39 | Report Abuse
I all in PMETAL already, tomorrow let's go RM5.5!