the advantage of pmetal is of its low cost. at current almn price level, a lot of smelters in China will be burning cash daily if they operate. breakeven point for pmetal is 1800USD. even if the almn price drop to 1800USD, a lot of smelters around the world would burn before pmetal burns.
so, as long as pmetal continues to make profit, there shouldn't be much of a worry. averaging down and holding it should not be an issue.
but the problem , will demand of aluminium goes lower and lower ?
usage of aluminium in car industry due to it is light compare to steel and give a great field consumption . this is the selling point of Ford F150 .
but now the price of petroleum this low , automotive might halt their plan of shifting from steel to aluminium . further more , housing development also slow down and further pressure aluminium price .
maybe we should consider Alu vs iron as well instead of Malaysia smelter vs china smelter only .
The only certainty is...nothing is certain...alu price is weakening and may weaken some more...PMetal had already broken down from its medium to long term support at 2.98 to 2.80...This will be its resistance in any rebound...it is now on short to medium term downtrend...If current support at 2.57 breaks, it may find strong support at its long term support at 2.42 to 2.20...
Many investors sold their shares to stay away from klse market as the going does not look good.Only local funds dump in money to bluechips ounters such as BAT Petdag , ,Tenaga ,TM ,KLK ,...just to stop klse index down further.
KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed US$30 higher at US$20,330 a tonne yesterday propped up by gains on the London Metal Exchange (LME), a dealer said.
The metal price on LME increased US$90 to US$20,550 a tonne
The dealer said the local tin market's trading was mainly supported by scattered buying by the Japanese.
At the opening, sellers offered 62 tonnes while buyers bid for 56 tonnes.
The final turnover was slightly higher at 75 tonnes from the 74 tonnes recorded on Tuesday, with demand coming from Japanese, European and local traders.
The price differential between the KLTM and LME fell to a premium of US$130 a tonne from US$190 a tonne previously
Why? The reason is very simple, the stock level of aluminium is very low (low free float) and majority of aluminium supply is stored by Detroit (about 50-79%). Price is affected by demand and supply.
With oil price getting lower, can you guess which industry will benefit? The car !! 4x4 huge cars , Americans like it. When car industry start picking up, it will generate huge aluminium demand and don't forget the phones , tablets and computers
Currently market is very volatile but also create opportunity to buy some stock at bargain price. Chart wise, it may support around 2.4. Very attractive price indeed.
PMetal is now on short to medium term downtrend...It had already broke down on its support at 2.57 and its next strong support will be at its long term support at 2.42 to 2.20.
AL price look it can hold well but...housing office buildup in china is staggering, at least 10 times Malaysia supply normalized to per million population for the next 3 years. You guess what will happen when all this completes and nobody can rent them out all. Properties and construction is a major economic generator with strong multiplier effect and huge consumer of raw material from oil to alum. There will lightly be a slowdown across the board for commodity. This is also the reason we see a heavy sell down in bursa stocks and RM/USD as our economy is very dependent on commodity eg palm oil and crude oil.Pmetal is one of the lowest cost producer in the world but other player is also experiencing lower energy cost now. To me Pmetal is still a trading play very high beta stock so be informed understand the risk go out there and kill or be killed!! Good luck
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
desire
767 posts
Posted by desire > 2014-12-11 12:00 | Report Abuse
unless u hold 20 years ago at rm2