Go www.quotenet.com , lock in commodities , look at Industrial Metal and you will have alluminium pricing , click on Allu and you will have actual Realtime quote .
like it or not Pmetal is one of the big player for aluminum manufacturing in the world.. they are producing good quality of aluminum not like some country and the price are much more cheaper with good quality..
have a check why someone want to slash the export tax??? they cant compete with higher price and export tax.
i bought 2.65 about 2 months back and sold it at 3.45 few weeks ago, so no surprise to see its price is 2.86 now, and nothing to be shock if it goes back to 3.4...
The Chinese Government’s surprise move to scrap the export tax on aluminium rods and strips may not add pressure on already-depressed aluminium prices. However, we cut our numbers for Press Metal. Our TP falls to MYR4.37 (51% upside) as the new policy may temporarily undermine the potential aluminium price rebound. The stock is our long-term BUY due to its low-cost smelters and Phase III expansion. Surprise change in policy. Last week, the Chinese Government announced its plan to scrap a 15% export tax on rods and strips made from primary aluminum with effect from 1 May. We also hosted a conference call with Press Metal’s management as the company’s share price fell following the news. Limited downside but temporary keep the upside. Indeed, the move was an unpleasant surprise for the market, as it was the opposite of what most investors expected – that the Chinese Government may close the outdated capacity or remove the value-added tax (VAT) rebate ranging from 13% to 17% for certain value-added aluminium products, in order to discourage exports. We concur with Press Metal’s management that the latest policy change will have little impact on the aluminium market outside of China, mainly because the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price and physical premium paid on top of the LME rate by the rest of the world has continued to slide to very distressed levels, while the China’s domestic aluminium price (which refers to the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)) found its support at the CNY13,000/tonne level. Although, the economics of exporting aluminium products from China are not at work at the moment, we think this may have kept the potential rebound on aluminium price outside China going – as any increase would open room for China to export more aluminium. Reiterate BUY with a lower MYR4.37 TP. We cut our earnings estimates for Press Metal by 20.7-23.1% for the next three financial years after imputing the lower aluminium price assumption. That said, our new TP – derived from a 20% discount to its DCF value – of MYR4.37 still offers a decent 51% upside, thanks to the company’s proven low-cost smelter which is in the first quartile of the global cost curve, and its on-going Phase III expansion that offers decent growth potential. Thus, we maintain BUY, but we do expect some headwinds for its share price over the short term after this latest development
China moves to cut the export tax on aluminium products. Bloomberg reported last week that the Chinese Government announced its plan to scrap a 15% export tax on rods and strips made from primary aluminum effective 1 May. Meanwhile, most of the industry experts quoted by the mainstream press last Friday morning think the move may send aluminium prices lower amid ample supply. Another popular reason cited was that China continues to add aluminum capacity as smelters elsewhere struggle to cut enough supply. The news sent Press Metal’s share price downwards by as much as MYR0.42 last Friday. While the stock managed to regain some earlier losses by the end the day – it closed last week at MYR2.90 – its share price was still down by 10.5%. 22.8m Press Metal shares changed hands on Friday – the single largest volume traded in a day since its listing. We promptly organised a conference call on the same day to give institutional investors an opportunity to hear the news directly from management and its take on the latest development. Negative surprise. Indeed the move came in as a major surprise to us and the market in general, where hopes have been high that the Chinese Government would shut down the outdated capacity and eliminate the VAT ranging from 13% to 17%, which has been used as a loophole by some exporters to earn a handsome arbitrage profit from exporting “fake” aluminium coils or other value-added aluminium products. We believe the drop in Press Metal’s share price can be attributed to China’s move, which is totally opposite of what the market was originally expecting. This may also leave investors wondering if there are more changes in the future by the Chinese Government encouraging the export of aluminium. Management sees little impact from latest policy. During our 45-minute conference call with Dato’ Paul Koon, CEO/founder and Mr David Tan, head of Press Metal’s corporate affairs, both believed that the latest tax cut would have a minimal impact on the aluminium market for the rest of the world outside China. They pointed out that the export tax is only removed for a specific category of aluminium strips, bars and rods that are produced in smaller quantities. Dato’ Paul also said the economics of exporting those aluminium products do not work at the present price level – as the all-in aluminium prices outside China have declined while China’s domestic price of the commodity has found strong support above the CNY13,000/tonne level. Furthermore, those products are still subject to the 13-17% VAT that reduces China’s competitiveness to export.
Reiterate BUY, but a lower TP of MYR4.37. After accounting for all the adjustments mentioned above, our DCF value rises to MYR7.9bn. Considering that the realisation of earnings from Phase III is expected in FY16, we continue to apply a 20% discount to the stock’s DCF valuation to derive a new TP of MYR4.37 (from MYR5.53). Therefore, we reiterate BUY on Press Metal, which remains our Top Pick for the basic materials sector.
the report is more than 10 pages. i cant post everything here. for those who are interested can check RHB website. Busy Weekly Issue 316 has full coverage on PMetal, it also mentioned why this company has strong competitive advantage against its competitors.
Momentum Idea - PMETAL PMETAL: ripe for a technical bounce
§ The recent 15.6% slump in four days to end at RM2.86 yesterday as investors fear the surprised China’s government decision to remove export taxes on bars and rods of primary aluminium and aluminium-alloy effective 1 May.
§ At RM2.86, PMETAL is trading at undemanding 7.2x Bloomberg FY16 P/E, 44% below its 10-year historical average P/E of 13x, supported by an EPS CAGR of 17.8% for FY15-17 and decent dividend yield of 4.5%-5.2%. Hence, we advocate investors to take this opportunity to buy on weakness given that PMETAL’s fundamental and prospects remain intact
§ Technicals are grossly oversold. Risk taker can accumulate for technical rebound. A decisive breakout above immediate resistance of RM3.00 will lift prices higher towards RM3.20-3.30 zones. Cut loss below RM2.70 Hong Leong investment bank
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
kenneth89
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Posted by kenneth89 > 2015-04-27 09:23 | Report Abuse
DOWN NOW