Posted by tianjin > 2015-05-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

Points to ponder :
1. EPS 3.58 cents vs Dividend declared 3 cents per share which is equivalent to 83.79% of EPS
2. Provision for Unrealized forex losses on USD denomination long term loan is over RM 100 mil .

The above 2 simple reasons demonstrate that Pmetal have a very strong balance sheet and cash position .

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-07 09:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks all for the comments. Generally,

1) Net profit almost increase 100% despite sales increased 17%
2) EPS and DPS dropped due to (i) bonus issue , (ii) conversion of company warrant .

Share price currently seem to support at 200MA, RM2.80-2.85. Waiting for big guys come and push up.
Any taught?

Posted by tianjin > 2015-05-07 09:59 | Report Abuse

The Core Profit for Q1 2015 was RM 120.8mil less provision for Unrealized forex losses on USD denominated loan for this Q is RM 77.6mil , that's how the NP of RM 43.1 mil derived . In fact Pmetal's Q1 2015 result beats estimates of many IB's prediction . ( Plz refer to RHB Invest for details of Q1 2015 analysis. )

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-05-07 10:02 | Report Abuse

Hehe... I quite confident next Q profit will be above 150 mil :)
the TP set by investment bank is justified :)

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-05-07 10:05 | Report Abuse

Check on their forex loss and do some calculating then u will find out

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-07 10:43 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Investing/2015/05/07/Kenanga-maintains-Outperform-on-Press-Metal/?style=biz

Posted by BURSAMASTER > 2015-05-07 21:39 | Report Abuse

Press Metal - Strong 1Q on higher output and better prices HOLD
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 7 May 2015, 02:19 PM

- We maintain HOLD on Press Metal Bhd with an unchanged fair value of RM3.20/share – pegged to 14x PE over FY15F core FD EPS.

- Press Metal reported a net profit of RM43.1mil for 1QFY15 (+54% YoY, +3% QoQ). This is on the back of an 18% YoY revenue growth to RM1.1bil (from RM897mil). On a sequential basis, sales has fallen by 7%.

- Stripping off extraordinary items – i.e. marked-to-market forex loss provisions primarily on USD-denominated borrowings – Press Metal would have reported a core net profit of RM139mil (vs. 4Q14’s RM123mil).

- While Press Metal’s 1Q core earnings exceeded our expectations, we maintain our numbers for now (it made up 47% and 43% of our and consensus estimates).

- Press Metal declared a first tax-exempt interim dividend of 3 sen/share (vs. 5 sen/share for 1QFY14). We are expecting total DPS of 16 sen for this year (FY14: 16 sen).

- The topline growth can be attributed to higher production output from both its Mukah and Bintulu plants during the quarter. Recall that the Mukah plant was shut down in June 2013, and only resumed full production in April 2014.

- With production at full capacity, Press Metal saw its earnings improve on better aluminium spot prices and premiums during the quarter. Spot price was trading at an average of USD1,801/MT during 1Q (vs. USD1,710/MT a year earlier).

- While 1Q numbers are encouraging, outlook on the global aluminium market remains muted. Recall that Alcoa, US’ largest producer, is now forecasting a global deficit of 326,000 metric tonnes (vs. expectations of a surplus earlier) for this year due to anticipated oversupply. Also, China had recently removed a 15% export tax on aluminium products while LME implemented rules to move metal out of its warehouses faster.

- As a result, global premiums have fallen by as much as 40% YTD while spot prices are trading at an average of USD1,810/MT during the same period.

- We maintain our numbers and HOLD call as we expect global prices to remain muted on the back of a mixed global economic recovery. We have forecasted an average selling price of USD2,150/MT for this year.

Source: AmeSecurities Research - 7 May 2015

Posted by Jingweihan > 2015-05-07 21:44 | Report Abuse

AMMB always ask u to hold.

Posted by robert168 > 2015-05-08 07:38 | Report Abuse

You can choose to sell now then.. sell to me !! Hahaha

Posted by spy008 > 2015-05-08 08:17 | Report Abuse

Alumium Price on 7/5/15:


1,883.00 USD -43.50 USD -2.26 %

Posted by inikalilah888 > 2015-05-08 11:03 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy buy buy

Posted by Yilyn Khoo > 2015-05-08 11:05 | Report Abuse

Market was highly optimistic

Posted by BURSAMASTER > 2015-05-08 11:17 | Report Abuse

up 12 ct to 3.07

Posted by BURSAMASTER > 2015-05-08 11:18 | Report Abuse

Press Metal - Core Numbers Intact
Author: kiasutrader | Publish date: Thu, 7 May 2015, 10:49 AM

Press Metal’s core profit of MYR120.8m for 1Q15 exceeded our and street estimates. Nevertheless we keep our projections as we expect slightly weaker quarters ahead. That said, we reiterate BUY with a TP of MYR4.37 (51.6% upside) as we continue to like the company, a worldclass low cost aluminium smelter. Also, its Phase III smelter expansion is set to drive earnings, moving into 2016.

Better-than-expected 1Q15 core profit. Further weakness in the MYR compelled Press Metal to book another marked-to-market unrealised net forex loss of MYR97m on its USD-denominated loans in 1Q15. Excluding this non-operational and non-cash provision (after stripping off minority interests), it posted a core net profit of MYR120.8m at the start of FY15, above our and street estimates. While all-in aluminium prices dropped 5.8% QoQ to USD2,272/tonne on average, the positive flipside to the weaker MYR is the extended benefit of lower smelting costs, which are partly in MYR, while its sales are quoted in USD. We alsosuspect the company may have benefitted from its hedging position, as itlocked it in at higher London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices.
Look beyond temporary volatility. Meanwhile, the physical premium paid on top of the LME rate by the rest of the world (ex-China) has continued to slide to very distressed levels. However, it was partly compensated by the recent recovery of the LME price of aluminium. We also believe our recently-revised all-in aluminium price assumption ofUSD2,100/tonne for FY15/FY16 already has taken into consideration the present weakness in aluminium prices. Together with 1Q15 core profit already making up 35% of our full-year estimates, we make no changes to our estimates despite projecting a slightly lower core profit for the rest of the quarters in FY15 vis-à-vis 1Q15.
Reiterate BUY, with a MYR4.37 TP. We continue to like Press Metal as it is a world-class low-cost smelter in the first quartile of the global cost curve. Together with its ongoing Phase III expansion, which will lift smelting capacity to 760,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), it looks all set to generate decent earnings growth for the company moving into 2016. In order to be prudent, we continue to apply a 20% discount to our latest DCF valuation, and derive a TP of MYR4.37. Maintain BUY.

Posted by VIWizard > 2015-05-08 12:16 | Report Abuse

world-class low-cost smelter! wait what? buy!

Posted by simonc > 2015-05-08 12:48 | Report Abuse

has the news about lower power tariffs for all from April15 in Sarawak been priced in ? PMetal smelter is in Sarawak.

http://www.theborneopost.com/2015/03/03/lower-power-tariffs-for-all-from-april/

Posted by simonc > 2015-05-08 12:58 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/05/05/Sarawak-business-community-welcomes-lower-power-tariffs/?style=biz

For industrial consumers, he said about 980 of them would enjoy a 4% to 40% reduction

Posted by fortunebullz > 2015-05-08 13:02 | Report Abuse

Hehehehe! Not bad! Bought 2.90, ouch! Then sold 2.95 then bought back 2.86! Phew!

Posted by Lollipot Anison > 2015-05-08 13:13 | Report Abuse

hopefully most of us will huat, especially those buy below rm3

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-05-08 14:24 | Report Abuse

The bullish is jz started.

It's very cheap now, even above 3.50, considering the TP. Jz a matter of big huat or small huat.

The target prices are achievable within 3-6 months. It's more visible to most ppl when next Q results out. Then the funds would have already pushed it to high price.

Funds are absorbing it. For retailers, if scared, try to examine these 2 solid factors:

1) exercising of warrants, which has collected about 250 millions of cash which is believed to repay the debt for the portion that is dominated in USD, which will subsequently lower the forex risk, financing fee and gearing ratio too
2) high possibility that there will be no/lesser forex loss as:
-USD stop appreciating for now, due to recovery in oil price and the USD appreciation factors have already been taken in
-possibly lesser debt dominated in USD in coming Q after repayment with retained earnings and proceeds from exercising of warrants.

The forex loss was 97 mil in Q1.

Without it , next Q results should be easily above 100mil.

TP by the investment banks are justified.

Posted by spy008 > 2015-05-08 16:08 | Report Abuse

@simonc, dun think Pmetal will have tarrif reduction on the power since their prices is cheapest in Sarawak/Malaysia and they have signed 21/25 yrs contract. 0.105 sen/kWh.

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-08 18:07 | Report Abuse

Finally , shares buy back came into picture ?

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4730865

Posted by Hsien Hui Yeoh > 2015-05-08 18:25 | Report Abuse

Proposed share buy back for 10 % of issue capital.

Posted by Hsien Hui Yeoh > 2015-05-08 18:32 | Report Abuse

Since a share repurchase reduces a company’s outstanding shares, its biggest impact is evident in per-share measures of profitability and cash flow such as earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CFPS). Assuming that the price/earnings (P/E) multiple at which the stock trades is unchanged, this should eventually result in a higher share price.

Posted by 8u29song > 2015-05-08 18:43 | Report Abuse

why yesterday no up, but today when alum price drop big ?

this morning scared Q to sell !

Posted by angku > 2015-05-08 20:34 | Report Abuse

There is hand behind trying to grab your money.

Posted by tsyjj > 2015-05-08 22:55 | Report Abuse

Hold........don't sell....

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-05-08 23:22 | Report Abuse

ppl around the Al market has the consensus aluminium is going to be 1900-2000 la..

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-05-08 23:26 | Report Abuse

premium dropping, but the drop has slowed down ald and is offset with higher Al price. the dynamic is healthy. the thing is pmetal cost is really cheap, its still profitable to them anyway. and they had locked in the 2015 contract. after they increase their capacity some more in mid 2015, there will be more revenue and more profit.

Posted by martinbartesque > 2015-05-08 23:50 | Report Abuse

Commodity price is calculated in USD, including aluminium price. When USD is strengthening, commodity price will drop further. USD will be strengthened when near & after US increases interest rate.

Posted by martinbartesque > 2015-05-08 23:53 | Report Abuse

Supporting is at 3.03. If it is still above 3.03, still safe to hold.

Posted by stallionrichmont > 2015-05-09 09:29 | Report Abuse

TP GIVEN BY RHB-OSK was 4.37 and KENANGA was 5.41. However, AMBANK only rate it at 3.20 which mean till the price stand above 3.20 then we only look into the TP given by RHB-OSK. However, based on chart wise it will face a strong resistance at 3.45 level. So, just to be cautious, we should consider 3.45 for profit taking level if it fail to penetrate this resistance..

Posted by robert168 > 2015-05-09 19:41 | Report Abuse

do not worry !!! it will all the way up to previous high (RM7).. is depends on your stroong heart !!! super bullish potential counter

cheers..

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-10 01:01 | Report Abuse

big guys is coming back into the share. . hence, the share break up RM 3 on Friday . Next move, RM 3.20

Posted by Jingweihan > 2015-05-10 10:59 | Report Abuse

I all in below 2.90. Bot some 3.03.
I think still can buy.

Posted by Jingweihan > 2015-05-10 11:09 | Report Abuse

When pm is moving up we hv to follow and act quickly.
Buy b4 it really move up!!

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-10 22:10 | Report Abuse

let us see PMETAL move toward RM 3.20 tomorrow. Can break up this level?

Posted by Hsien Hui Yeoh > 2015-05-11 09:49 | Report Abuse

highest 3.11 ! Lets see the breakthrough! Cheer PMETAL shareholder ! Believe in it and we reap

Posted by 8u29song > 2015-05-11 11:02 | Report Abuse

yum seng !

Posted by darkmagician > 2015-05-11 12:55 | Report Abuse

see u all after ex date... sure discounted price...

Posted by Jingweihan > 2015-05-11 13:31 | Report Abuse

Go up then discount

Posted by ivankvs > 2015-05-11 14:47 | Report Abuse

remember to take profit once hit ur target price ..

Posted by 洁杰绝 > 2015-05-11 16:25 | Report Abuse

what happen to sudden fall?

Posted by Joeylee > 2015-05-11 16:26 | Report Abuse

Small volume drop only... small retailer close it.

Posted by Joeylee > 2015-05-11 16:32 | Report Abuse

Buy it while small retailer creates a chance

Posted by 洁杰绝 > 2015-05-11 16:39 | Report Abuse

btw... i hav 100lots @ 2.88 :P

Posted by Joeylee > 2015-05-11 16:41 | Report Abuse

I have 60k lots at 2.50

Posted by superman11 > 2015-05-11 16:42 | Report Abuse

now can enter bo? Will it too late?

Posted by Joeylee > 2015-05-11 16:49 | Report Abuse

Nobody want to sell it. Volume offer on what u can see is less. When it moves up of course very fast la.. drop also fast..

Posted by superman11 > 2015-05-11 16:51 | Report Abuse

sob sob....