I just found out about this stock... damn ... i couldnt believe it...bought it at 17.40 but now already 17.86. Cant wait for it to go up to 20.00 as per the price target of cimb, kenanga, and affin.
I supposed some of you guys bought it at very much lesser price.
Of course I bought much earlier before KWAP came into the scene, so being a "novice" temptation was to "lock" in profits only to find subsequently that KWAP has been targeting this stock to collect more and more. The only direction for KESM now is up and up to test again the 20/-level. Why sell?...Ride with it.
I think the "free" float of KESM shares in the open market now, is about 8 million, and if Institutions keep accumulating with KWAP aggressively buying, there will be less and less sellers, so the price will only appreciate as the Company's profits improve, Subject to unforeseen developments, hopefully none or minimal, then up and up and away you go KESM ***
The study shows that Malaysian stock market has significantly overreact to SARS outbreak, while significantly underreact to September 11th terrorist attacks. Although Gulf Crisis and Invasion of Iraq involve oil producing country, surprisingly, Malaysian stock market does not show any evidence of stock overreaction behaviour towards those events.
“While the human toll is immeasurable, 25 years of history shows us that the market impacts of US missile strikes have generally been small and brief,” wrote Jeffrey Kleintop, the chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., in a LinkedIn post. He offered the following chart, which showed that in the first day after such a strike, global stocks typically decline—falling in 58% of such sessions—although the average move is just a drop of 0.2%, the kind of shift that happens almost daily. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-investors-shouldnt-fret-a-us-missile-strike-on-syria-in-one-chart-2018-04-12
"Syrian attack on markets would be minimal. The stock markets are valued with its future cash flows discounted to present value and unless the cash flows are dependent on such geographies, the impact on the stock market will not be significant," Shubham Agarwal, CEO & Head of Research at Quantsapp Private Limited told Moneycontrol.
"Syria is a crude oil exporter but its 34th on the rank for crude export and is not material enough to alter the crude oil price for any inter-correlation impact of the stock market with commodities," he said.
The growth story has changed. What the cimb report essentially told us was revenue is going to be flat at least for the next one or two quarter due to wafer bottlenecks. I have took some profit and expect near term selling pressure.
Silicon wafer production capacity last year wasn’t enough to meet supply and demand across several IC segments, particularly memory components and discrete semiconductors, which resulted in component shortages and extended lead times. Wafer capacity is now forecast to increase over the next two years, which will lessen supply constraints and stabilize pricing as more capacity is brought online. https://epsnews.com/2018/02/22/component-shortages-will-ease-wafer-capacity-grows/
Sunright was down 1,23% today. Today investors overreacted.
It said the prolonged wafer supply shortage was a downside risk, while potential accelerating recovery in wafers supply was an upside risk to its call.
wafer supply shortage was recognized last year. But Kesm's net profit increased 12% YoY. the analyst does not know if wafer supply shortage will improve or not. But he forecasts it will not improve by the end of Q3 and that it will improve after that. That kind of forecast is without any reasonable bases.
When KESM's Executive Director + 9 (NINE) fund managers had a conference call TOGETHER and AGREED there is wafer supply constraints and lower revenue & profit for the next 2 quarters, their views bears very heavy weight.
We recently hosted a conference call with KESM’s Executive Director, Kenneth Tan, together with nine domestic fund managers. During the call, the group shared its view on the likely minimal impact from the escalation in protectionist tariffs between China and the US. In addition, KESM is still facing wafer supply constraints as its customers face assembly and production yield issues. Wafer substrate is a key raw material for the fabrication of integrated circuit (IC) chips."
Utilisation of their factory fall from 80% to 70%! Imagine how much revenue loss for the next 6 months! Quite high risk and possibility that next 2 quarters will have lower net profit, which in turn again will make the price fall further due to fear from irrational "investors", even if the company's fundamental are strong. Best to lock in profit than being dragged down by the market for the next 6 months.
We expect KESM’s utilisation rate to fall from 80% in 2QFY18 to 70% in 3QFY18F due to lower wafer supply. Nevertheless, we expect the group’s supply constraint issue to improve in 4QFY18F as its customers gradually improve their production yield."
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tecpower
3,536 posts
Posted by tecpower > 2018-04-13 00:51 | Report Abuse
PHLX semiconductor index was 1287.70 on 2 Januay. Now it is 1341.54.
Semiconductor rally is coming!