FGV Holdings (FGV MK) Misleading Headline Numbers, Disappointing Earnings; D/G To SELL Sell (from Neutral) Target Price (Return): MYR1.35 (-9.4%) Price: MYR1.49 Market Cap: USD1,308m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 1.45m/0.35m Analysts Hoe Lee Leng +603 9280 8860 hoe.lee.leng@rhbgroup.com Sean Chew +603 92808801 sean.chew@rhbgroup.com Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 16.4 12.9 11.2 12.0 21.1 Relative 18.0 5.8 10.8 10.5 16.1 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 1.01 – 1.57 Source: Bloomberg Downgrade to SELL, from Neutral, with MYR1.35 TP from MYR1.30, 9.4% downside. FGV’s core profit for 1H21 was below expectations, as headline numbers included an amount of MYR231m accounting adjustment for changes made to its land lease agreement (LLA) assumptions. Although we expect the sugar division to improve in 2H21, the plantation division would still be held back by weak FFB output and forward sales done at lower prices. FGV recorded a core net profit of MYR47m in 2Q21, bringing 1H21 core net profit to MYR57.8m, making up just 28% of ours and 20% of consensus’ FY21 projections. The main discrepancy came lower-than-expected FFB performance of -4.7% YoY in 1H21, resulting in higher unit costs. The sugar division also disappointed, on higher costs, making up 29% of consensus projections in 1H21. FGV recorded a positive accounting adjustment of MYR231m for its LLA long term assumptions in 1H21, which we have stripped out from our core profit calculation. FFB output fell 4.7% in 1H21. FGV has lowered its FFB growth target from +2% to +4% to -3% to -4% for FY21, as it expects the impact of MCO 3.0 and labour shortage to have an impact on productivity. Current labour shortage stands at 26% (up from 17% at end-2020). In YTD-July, the FFB growth moderated further to -7.9% YoY. We cut our FFB growth projection to -5.3% (from -2.7%) for FY21, but leave our FY22-23F assumption to 3 to 4% growth. We have also cut our external FFB purchase assumptions accordingly. Unit costs rose 7% YoY in 1H21, due to weaker output and higher fertilisation activities. FGV has applied 45% of its fertiliser requirements in 1H21 (from 35% in 1H20), Going forward, FGV targets to reduce unit costs (excluding LLA) back to MYR1,600/tonne in FY21 (from MYR1,619/tonne in FY20). We think this may be difficult in view of the still weak output, while fertilisation activities will have to be ramped up in 2H21. We have raised our cost assumptions in line with our lower FFB outlook. Forward sales. FGV’s 1H21 average CPO price was lower than the market at MYR3,268/tonne, mainly due to forward sales, where 60% of 2Q21’s output was sold at MR3,200-3,500/tonne. For 2H21, it has sold forward 30% of its own production. The sugar division remained in the black for the third quarter in a row, albeit with lower QoQ PBT contributions (-55%), due to higher raw sugar prices (+7% QoQ and +23% YoY). Going forward, this division should see better earnings, given the higher ASP for export and volumes combined with its locked-in imported raw sugar requirements at 15-20% below current prices. Downgrade to SELL (from Neutral). All in, we cut earnings by 4-14% for FY21-23. We believe FGV is still at risk of being privatised, given the low public spread of 13.47%, which will be an overhang on share price. Our SOP-based TP is raised slightly to MYR1.35 (from MYR1.30), after taking into account MSM’s latest share price. Source: Company data, RHB 79 85 90 96 102 107 113 118 124 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Apr-21 May-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Aug-21 Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK) Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) Forecasts and Valuation Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F Dec-22F Dec-23F Total turnover (MYRm) 13,259 14,076 14,048 14,010 14,164 Recurring net profit (MYRm) (158) 103 178 164 164 Recurring net profit growth (%) 151.3 - 72.7 (7.9) 0.2 Recurring P/E (x) na 52.67 30.50 33.12 33.07 P/B (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 P/CF (x) 1.71 1.63 2.82 2.87 2.85 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.23 6.74 6.66 6.74 6.56 Return on average equity (%) (7.7) 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.8 Net debt to equity (%) Interest cover (x) 53.9 0.23 42.0 3.73 38.4 3.94 34.1 3.74 30.0 3.80 Overall ESG Score: 2.6 (out of 4) E: Good FGV adopts a zero-waste management policy and continues to manage its waste more efficiently through usage of biomass residue of empty fruit bunches as solid fuel and converting other by-products into animal feed. In 2019, FGV started to implement a model estate and mill project to incorporate best practices across its entire workflow. S: Moderate Labour concerns, which have been highlighted recently, are currently being investigated. Nevertheless, FGV has made commitments to adhere to the International Labour Organisation’
To be fair Calvin sifu call on plantations is consider good;
1. Plantation valuation is still under price. 2. Plantations are generating huge operating positive cashflow 3. Plantation lands are good hedge against inflation mah! 4. There are limited supply plantation land available now 5. These companies pays reasonable good dividend mah! 6. The upside is high but the downside is low loh!
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > Sep 2, 2021 11:03 AM | Report Abuse
First time you know calvin tan?
>>>>>>> The only unchanged is, someone has bought a lot palm oil stocks and now publish nonsense reports in hte platform to lure uneducated investors to follow the footsteps.
The best thing for Felda to do with FGV is to keep FGV's price way below 1.30,to ensure all the loose monkeys who cannot sustain the opportunity cost of their investment in plantation counters to drop off. They are holding enough % to be able to manipulate this counter.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
atlantisbear
103 posts
Posted by atlantisbear > 2021-08-30 22:24 | Report Abuse
https://www.bharian.com.my/bisnes/korporat/2021/08/857810/fgv-catat-kenaikan-tinggi-untung-bersih-rm33882-juta