Don't go chasing it. That is exactly what they want us to do "PLAYING US". Could be another 2 years + possibility another 2 years of extension.. If Bursa is not going to issue an ultimatum, there is nothing stopping FELDA from sitting on that excess and keep on manipulating the price and collecting the dividends. They have got that much volume to play with.
All these facts of good results in CPO prices for the last 2 years has not shown any coorelation to their price. It might show some improvement in other palm oil company but not FGV.
Of the 8 planters Mabel track, 6 came in above expectation, while the remaining 2 were within our expectation. During the quarter, all plantation players registered significantly higher core earnings on YoY basis, boosted mainly by sharply higher palm product prices. Maintain 2022-24 CPO price assumptions of RM5,500/4,500/4,500 per tonne and OVERWEIGHT stance on the sector. Top Malaysian picks are FGV, IOI Corp, KLK, and Sime Darby Plantation. Yes lah, FGV will produces more good babies..
Few Years ago, when Miss FGV was badly treated (by Mr Felda’s Greed), she was a complete mess. She was about to LAYU di PUSARA. Knowing about her true potential, Mabel and Team here took the opportunity to support her. So now you know why she is so sad when Mr Felda want her back..
Why does Mr Felda want to take her back?
Miss FGV has now become so sexy that Felda want to take private and want her 100% attention by Mr Felda himself. Felda has resumes FGV share buy after four-month pause. Soon no more sharing with Mabel and her Team.
So Mabel and her Team are now looking forward for Yummy Yummy Yummy pay out from Felda.
So sexy. Yum Yum. Today Mabel accumulate more FGV Shares. Just to add what Mabel shared this afternoon..
Mandatory Take-over Offer (MO): Substantial shareholder, FELDA, triggered a MO to acquire FGV at RM1.30/share in Jan 2021. Its holdings in FGV has since risen from 51% to 80%, hence the listing requirement for public investors to have at least 25% shareholding in FGV is no longer met. As FGV is now trading above RM1.30, FELDA has sought to extend the MO several times and the latest extension is till 3 Aug 2022. FELDA can raise the offer price, sell down 5% to meet Bursa’s requirement or, more likely, continue to extend the MO.
Maintaining our MARKET PERFORM as well as TP of RM2.30 which translates to a target FY21 P/NTA of 1.5x and prospective FY22E PER of 7.5x. This corresponds broadly with the Group’s historical ratings of 1.0-1.2x NTA and 8x forward PER. Among the reasons FGV tend to trade below sector PER are its earnings volatility and low ROE, as such we prefer using P/NTA with some consideration for PER as well.
Don't be fooled. They are not supposed to mop up more shares but dump. All this has to be done by 3rd Aug. If GO coming pretty sure they will be dumping to get the WAP down which they can do easily considering the amount of shares they got. Don't play their game, plenty of time to wait for some confirmation.
End game already Evo. Nothing else to play except to mop up as many as possible at the cheapest possible price in view of the many constraints they are facing.
Don't think it is an end game. A takeover GO will not happen if it is not anywhere close to 2.50. Investors will not be accepting the GO. FELDA is not prepared to pay 2.50. The GOM cannot afford to assist FELDA in the takeover because they also got no money due to subsidies funding. The only reason the price is down here is because FELDA wants it to be lower.
Despite overall momentum remaining elevated, we opine the ongoing consolidation will likely be mild with the price set to challenge the resistance again once selling pressure normalises.
SUPPORT S1: MYR3,850 S2: MYR3,250 RESISTANCE R1: MYR4,245 R2: MYR4,493 MOMENTUM Rebound signal intact TREND Short-term recovery
Kenanga Research has an "overweight” rating on the plantation sector, saying another good set of plantation earnings can be expected moving forward for the coming April-June 2022 results seasons.
"Thereafter, easier earnings are likely but (they will) still remain robust on expected CPO price of RM4,500 per tonne for 2022 and RM4,000 per tonne for 2023. With production cost of between RM2,000 and 2,500 per tonne, margins for the sector are still attractive"
The BIG question is whether BURSA is capable of implementing it's own regulations on a GLC like FELDA, or is FELDA going to just ignore them like Karim in Serbadk. By the time they decide to do something most investors would have been cheated out by FELDA, at least in the foregone opportunity cost of holding on.
Has been high vol since 6/7/22. Mopping up operations by Felda at RM1.50. Join them. Grab as many as possible. Don't let them mop everything cheap. Even at RM1.51 is ok.
Definitely. When and what price I don't know. At least RM1.50. Most likely higher. My preference is a few more rounds of dividends before delisting it. Let them take their own sweet time. 2 or 3 years later maybe.
Go grab some. Don't let them have it easy and swallow everything on the cheap. Fight baby, fight. If they GO cheaply, don't give to them. Like what EVO118 said: must be at least RM2.50
Mabel oledi sapu..In the worst case if it ever it get delisted , if Mabel reject Felda offer, it may turn out like one of Mabel Sukuk/Bonds. Every 6 months just collect Dividend. No need to trade anymore. Just collect Dividend just like Mabel Sukuk Indonesia Golden Agri Plantation.
1.61 target price? Are they kidding with this counter? More like a con to chase the price for FELDA to make some short term profit by selling to the unaware buyers. Been watching this counter for a long time. Nothing promising here until we get some action from Bursa, maybe before 3rd Aug.
Nothing to research or analyze anymore. All valuation metrics can throw out the window. A cornered stock just waiting to be taken private. Only questions are when and at what price the GO will be. And how many will refuse the offer.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
EVO118
2,210 posts
Posted by EVO118 > 2022-07-07 06:47 | Report Abuse
Felda still picking up shares.