Estimation of PBT from tabulation of production data for the month of Oct - Dec. 2021 is about RM 160 million...which means PAT could touch about RM 125 million...one can expect dividend of at least RM 0.025/share.
JP Morgan 'overweight' on plantations, sees 2-year upcycle TheEdge Tue, Feb 15, 2022 KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 15): ASEAN plantation stocks may be back in vogue, says JP Morgan, noting that foreign investors who are less tied up with sustainability metrics are unable to ignore the strong crude palm oil (CPO) price rally.
The bank upgraded its call on the ASEAN plantation sector to “overweight” and also upgraded its CPO price assumption on Tuesday (Feb 15), citing supply concerns amid years of reduction in new planting.
In a note, JP Morgan Malaysia equities research head Jeffrey Ng said rotation into inflation proxies (commodities) might persist amid “rising interest from non-ESG-bound foreign funds” and low domestic institutional holdings, coupled by prospects of US rate hikes.
This is on the back of consistent cuts in Indonesia’s new planting since 2012, as well as Malaysia’s replanting efforts, which could mean that near-term supply growth will decelerate.
“As we think the CPO upcycle might last over two years due to the reasons mentioned above, we think planters’ valuations have hit an inflection point,” Ng said.
“The sustainability of this rotation hinges on market perception of the CPO price outlook,” he added.
CPO prices settled at a fresh record of RM5,657 per tonne on Tuesday, having scaled new highs this week on expectations of improved demand following India’s import tax cut. The commodity has risen by over 20% this year.
Ng forecasts CPO price to be at around RM5,000 in 2022 and 2023. The assumption is below spot, taking into consideration revenue taxes.
Ng upgraded to “overweight” calls for Sime Darby Plantation Bhd (target price: RM6.80), Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (TP: RM30), and Genting Plantations Bhd (TP: RM12). He also raised IOI Corp Bhd to “neutral” (TP: RM4).
For valuation, the analyst switched to sum-of-parts of lands and downstream assets, from price-to-earnings ratio (PER), citing “the disconnect between share prices and the CPO price”.
“Planters are trading at single-digit PER, free cash flow yields are rising, the average dividend yield is circa 4%, and 2022 might see circa 35% profit growth,” said Ng.
“A rising tide may lift all boats, but we advise investors to pick planters that have well-defined ESG frameworks to avoid negative publicity risk,” he added.
JP Morgan has helped to turn the tide in favor of the planters. The local research houses will start to follow the leader and lift the cap on their RM2.8k~3.2k FY22 and FY23 CPO price estimates to what is realistic reflecting global food shortage amid the high fertilizer prices. RM2 BPlant TP may be achievable after all.
JP morgan sees a 2-3 year upcycle for plantation stocks with a view that foreign investor who are less tied up with sustainability metrics are unable to continue ignore the strong price { CPO} rally riding on the commodity boom. We think planter's valuation have hit an " inflection point" wow. Not a buy call. Just to share friends
Physical CPO hit $5, 910 per tonne for spot month February position. Same goes for Dalian { China exchange} and in US { SBO } hitting 66+cents per bushel for March future delivery position
" JP Morgan 'overweight' on plantations, sees 2-year upcycle - John ......................................." At LONG last the "PROs" in the business are "WAKING UP" to what we had SAID in early 2021 .... Now we can SHOUT ........ " WE TOLD YOU SO !!!! " I was loading up since Mid 2020 ...... ( After weather turmoil in US and South America, Then Asia . ) Now..... Bring out my SINGLETON 21 and Enjoy ~!!!!! Cheers to all who made some $$$$ !!!!
"" Johnzhang ....Very bullish trend developing. "" . NOTICED that "BUYERS" are always BEHIND and 'Collecting" when prices drops to 88cents.... Interesting..WHO are they ???
Feb 16): A supply crunch is threatening to cause a spike in prices for the world’s No 1 weedkiller, making it even more expensive for farmers to grow food.
A major supplier of an ingredient in glyphosate — an herbicide that’s widely used by corn, soy, cotton and other farmers around the world — shut down production due to mechanical failures, and repairs could take three months. Bayer AG, the maker of Roundup, whose active ingredient is glyphosate, declared a force majeure on Feb 11, meaning it may not be able to meet its sales agreements.
Farmers are anxious.
Aprosoja, an association of soybean producers in Brazil’s top-producing state Mato Grosso, sent a letter to Bayer’s chief executive officer in Brazil asking for assurances that there will be no shortages of glyphosate. Over 90% of soybeans grown in Brazil are genetically modified to resist glyphosate.
yet another challenge for soya and corn planting and production. Notwithstanding the wild weather pattern, Will supply of soyoil improve in 2022 to drive CPO price down?
Cost of nitrate, MOP & other fertilisers have gone thru the roof not forgetting weed killer {glyphosate} all needed by farmers. Weather is not challenging but damaging as well. After past year high production circle. Plants are resting or in other words entering into a lower production end circle. CPO is especially vulnerable . why? CPO is used both as a food crop and a bio energy fuel {B20 or B30}. With oil spiralling above USD 90 per barrel { Indonesia the world biggest CPO producer} has restricted the export of CPO and channel it to the country energy sector { to reduce the country outflow of foreign exchange}. scenario of other soft commodities { corn or soybean} is also repeated in other countries { Brazil, US etc} the lower than normal stock ratio of stock vs consumption will further fuel price increases. JP morgan and other comodities analysts have all upped thier call in the agricultural sector. Not a buy call but just my own view & personal take on the sector
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brianklc
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Posted by brianklc > 2022-02-15 10:23 | Report Abuse
Any idea why the Jan production “month” and “date” is different?