Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:07 | Report Abuse

only need to be careful of the oil price. now everybody is bearish on oil price, prediction go as low as usd30 a barrel. but we all know market like to surprise us. now all uncle auntie in pasar also believe oil will keep going down....any sudden strength in oil that trigger short covering shooting it back to 80. will kill all those who short. in any asset class.

i m very fearful of the sure thing. when everyone believe it is a sure thing. i have to be extra careful. normally when things r so sure, its already factored into the price that we see now.

now with all media report on how bearish oil would be how bad world would be etc etc...

who doesnt know oil price will drop more n more? when big sharks conditioned everyone to believe in that. what would they do?

reverse!

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:10 | Report Abuse

i may be wrong. but too sure a thing always fishy.

america is now looking into bailing out shale oil.

if they bail out shale oil industry. whats is saudi doing to kill shale oil by pressing down oil price low? it doesnt work anymore. so u think they will keep pressing it down or let it rise to normal level?

Posted by maunkulopdollah > 2014-12-11 18:19 | Report Abuse

Based on today closed, I maintain my prediction KLCI won't sustain above 1749 tomolo. Totally bearish mode, need to find equilibrium Point First between 1730 to 1749 for consolidation. 1800 is impossible for index to maintain by yeae end..my Point of View. Those Buy hb and hg below 0.23 and 0.17 might be in safer zone untuk end of Dec..my View.hihi

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:25 | Report Abuse

with such a high premium on put warrant.

hg, 20.5, fv. 8.5c, mkt price 20.5. premium 141%, breakeven klci =1670. 75pts more down.
hb, 26.0 fv 20.2, mkt price 26.0 premium 28.7% breakeven klci 1700.
45pts more down.
it really reminds me of dsonic-ca when it listed.

all it takes to kill this put warrant is another IB issue NEW put warrant at a lower premium.

notice why HB premium is lower n lower? and why HG came out?
HB has been on distribution until almost done, now pushing HG to distribute. they have pocketed all the profit and hedge in futures market ady.

its cheaper and more efficient to short klci in futures mkt. and it give u few months duration on huge margin.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:26 | Report Abuse

yes those buy 23 or 17 is still safe for now. agreed.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by maunkulopdollah > Dec 11, 2014 06:19 PM | Report Abuse

Based on today closed, I maintain my prediction KLCI won't sustain above 1749 tomolo. Totally bearish mode, need to find equilibrium Point First between 1730 to 1749 for consolidation. 1800 is impossible for index to maintain by yeae end..my Point of View. Those Buy hb and hg below 0.23 and 0.17 might be in safer zone untuk end of Dec..my View.hihi


the possible thing why year end is easy to push near 1800? bcos all fund mgr ady taken leave. nobody will be so hardworking and sacrifice christmas holiday to whack bursa, not worth it, also, all their holidays has been planned 1 year ahead. u think they will changed? it involve their wife n children and family gathering in diff country.

in the absence of selling, its easy to prop up klci. as u can see, the vol is drifting lower n lower everyday. no more big volume selling.

so again, beware. if u punt on put warrant. call/put warrant always not run on logic. but once so many ppls participate. its the time IB distribute to all ikan bilis and u ppls hold till maturity.

nothing to stop them from issue more similar product. HB, HG, HI, HJ, etc etc. all will give u diff leverage and price on diff premium. why? to confuse u to make comparisions and in self-delusion.

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 18:42 | Report Abuse

yes they may issue new put warr and the conversion ratio will be increased to 1000:1 or 1200:1,as hb/hg are issued before oil plunge...wakakakaka....how to beat those IB at their game har.

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-11 18:42 | Report Abuse

yes agree with optimus...price above 0.230 is high risk...this is just a lottery ticket

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-11 18:50 | Report Abuse

IB objective of issuing call/put warrant is to make profit by distributing all the warrants away and hedge it to the underlying asset.

there is no such thing as Owner doing collection. only when the product is not hedged properly they need to buy back from mkt at intrinsic value, anything more, is to goreng and distribute.

this is very diff nature than stocks.

IB issued warrant normally no trend, and very erractic, can go coma, can trade at discount prior to maturity.

i bet u when this klci put warrant is so lucrative, soon u will see RHB and maybank ambank macquiry issues the same.

and mind u, RHB/osk are very stingy/economical. they goreng on low premium. so the crowd out effect as to steal biz from others.

your logic bcos HG, HB issued prior to oil price melt is not valid, bcos this is not a oil warrant, its klci warrant.

and since HB at now 20.5 pricing in klci at 1670, when klci is 1745.

why cant RHB/ambank, issue a strike price 1750, 1 yr due dec 2015. and 200 to 1 conversion? and sell at 15c?

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-11 18:56 | Report Abuse

yes, agree with optimus view. Play safe. When a stock in active volume list more than a week, must be careful of retracement anytime.

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 18:56 | Report Abuse

well,it is smple,klci is affected by oil price as in msian govt income is affected by oil pr and when govt has less money to play with due to lower oil revenue thus having to shelf projects,and big local banks facing defaults frm O&G sector,bursa die slowly due to heavy selling in klci highest weighted components stocks ,the banks!

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 18:58 | Report Abuse

ok bye for now,tq for the discussion.

Posted by godbless88 > 2014-12-11 18:58 | Report Abuse

as per usual, this forum has lotsa SKL.

Posted by region > 2014-12-11 19:03 | Report Abuse

no need talk much Optimuss... la now oil still maintain lower level price...since u already out from here right u sold all today.. so just be quiet ok....perhaps u want to cause panic and grab on low? if not so just keep your mouth shut....talk is useless...wait for tomorrow better s we say. right?

Posted by ImCK > 2014-12-11 19:04 | Report Abuse

optimuss malaysia mostly is oil exporter if oil keep dropping many foreigneer will run myr will become worthless all hold usd more than MYR you get the point ? if oil keep dropping it will affecting to oil company profit earning if they cant cover the loan interest next affect will be bank . if many oil company bankrupt bank will loss a lot money then turn property many buyer cannot loan property also die . This is the condition make a market crash you can study see
many expert already told like petronas / mahathir / icapital
you cant change the trend you only can follow the trend
study world economy so you will know what is going on

Posted by kytan > 2014-12-11 19:10 | Report Abuse

http://www.nanyang.com/node/668106?tid=462

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 19:13 | Report Abuse

today,UAE a major oil exporter saw its abu dhabi stock exchange plunged 4.6%,so wat is in store for klci tmr?wakakakaka.https://www.adx.ae/English/Pages/default.aspx

Posted by kytan > 2014-12-11 19:17 | Report Abuse

美国能源部能源信息署在周三早些时候公布最新的库存数据，显示截止12月5日结束的一周中，美国商品原油库存增长150万桶，与市场调查显示的，库存会减少约300万桶的分析师平均预期背道而驰。

能源信息署的报告也显示，上周的汽油库存增加820万桶，包括柴油和馏分燃料油在内的馏分油库存增加560万桶。

Posted by LeiJun > 2014-12-11 19:21 | Report Abuse

So what do u guys think will happen. Condition likely to Uturn or not?

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-11 19:33 | Report Abuse

few other IB will be issuing the same type of warrant to goreng....at more attractive value...

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-11 19:41 | Report Abuse

optimus is right....anytime epf come support a few index linked counters....for window dressing....and when other IB start issuing other warrants...because they know market bearish...even hangseng warrant also ppl play in bursa...

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 21:07 | Report Abuse

wti crude futures below usd 61 now..wakakakaka.

Posted by ImCK > 2014-12-11 21:26 | Report Abuse

hard to U turn now is country market you can read the world economy report all the country is economy is down less demand on oil
this is fact . Arab is defending for thier market iraq & iran also same
now is money game see who have more money can play .
U.S now also want to export oil

Posted by hotdogge > 2014-12-11 21:29 | Report Abuse

oil crash a gai n

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 21:30 | Report Abuse

it is very simple,supply exceed demand = price down...economics 101,but some ppl wanna complicate things...wakakaka.

Posted by LeiJun > 2014-12-11 21:34 | Report Abuse

Shouldn't affect non oil n gas industries or industries that heavily dependent on oil n gas for fuel etc... Rightfully, only oil & gas industry should nose dive.

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 21:35 | Report Abuse

when we start hearing some bigshot oil companies go into liquidation,then we may be near the bottom,as of now we are still far away...one man's meat is another man's poison....good luck to you all.

Posted by LeiJun > 2014-12-11 21:48 | Report Abuse

Why the oil men don't do something about it? Bad for everyone.

Posted by cassyee > 2014-12-11 21:52 | Report Abuse

Hope tomorrow can hit to 0.285 .... hg hit 0.215-220 :)

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-11 21:52 | Report Abuse

oilman want to kill all the small players...even nihsin want to venture into oil n gas...later ktb also tell u they want to venture into oil n gas..oilman want to wipe out all including thheavvy, alam, perisai,, etcc..and regain monopoly over oil n gas sector...no competition..

Posted by simon84 > 2014-12-11 21:55 | Report Abuse

Cassyee don't worry to9 oil break below 60usd per barrel . remember my chart how low it can go? Just waiting tomorrow another high for both HB and HG..:)

Posted by cassyee > 2014-12-11 22:05 | Report Abuse

Simon, Thank. I has reference u chart & the market link information you gv. Am Waiting tomorrow hit higher ;)

Posted by xiaolingling > 2014-12-11 23:08 | Report Abuse

Now us up ,will KLCI follow ? So scary

Posted by saddiqsepakraga > 2014-12-11 23:12 | Report Abuse

tomorrow all put warrants going downhill...?!

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-12-11 23:22 | Report Abuse

Simon84,

really? Tomorrow KLCI will dip further and put warrant will shoot up more? Then must be good trading buy tomorrow. Thanks for ur advice.

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:27 | Report Abuse

ok, tomorrow show hand!

Posted by duitkwspkita > 2014-12-11 23:28 | Report Abuse

Wah.. Vaylens gor.. Really show hand tomorrow? So GENG! Support you..

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:33 | Report Abuse

simon84 say like will up mah...

Posted by saddiqsepakraga > 2014-12-11 23:36 | Report Abuse

careful....put warrants may be put to rest tomorrow....Dow is steaming hot tonite!!

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:37 | Report Abuse

so.....call warrant then? XD

Posted by region > 2014-12-11 23:38 | Report Abuse

nnow oil price dipping......break 61 now already 60.49. tomorrow sure drop even Djow up is useless...malaysia is malaysia....if tonite break bellow 60 then huat r

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:40 | Report Abuse

ok then put warrant...@@

Posted by xiaolingling > 2014-12-11 23:40 | Report Abuse

Not Dow Jones up then Rm weaken then klci down me?

Posted by xiaolingling > 2014-12-11 23:41 | Report Abuse

By the way …the oil price is like going up …wa Lao

Posted by saddiqsepakraga > 2014-12-11 23:42 | Report Abuse

I bet crude oil will hover around USD60 for now....not so fast breaking 60 maa...

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:43 | Report Abuse

call or put ? confused.

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-11 23:43 | Report Abuse

put warrant put to test?is ringgit strengthening?is oil strengthening?dun make me laugh die la.

Posted by xiaolingling > 2014-12-11 23:45 | Report Abuse

Huh then how …so confusing le !

Posted by news > 2014-12-11 23:49 | Report Abuse

No need to consider all fbmklci call warrants. All over priced.it is safer to park your money in the put warrants than call warrants.

Posted by Vaylens Chong > 2014-12-11 23:51 | Report Abuse

ok call!