old man said no star buck oh...look those fat American all diabetes....better at kopi tiam drink kopi o kaw kaw sweet salty eat roti kawin butter, see kimchi lawan susi...wakaka...abandoned car,dont know lor...aiyo!
wait ar......ask u fast buy medicine first before increase price ,......jeng, jeng,senkarlean want chest break empty stone,head to head bend 75mm high tensile paper bar....kaik kiak loy,kin kin lai arr!
looking back on my post on Mar 23, 2018 11:24 AM,the 6.5 is already at high resistant, i guess those IPO buyer manage to get out during this period, lucky sold mine @6.351, since then this counter just heading south like no tomorrow... poor management for always having excuse to perform as promoted during IPO...
Ekkram, u r so much luckier than me. I loss a lot in tis stock ( in term of % ) but luckily I didn't hold many shares in tis stock. Heart sick with tis stock
Analysis: China's faltering car sales crimp petrochemical, gasoline demand
Singapore — Chinese gasoline and petrochemical demand growth is under pressure from decelerating automobile sales that are expected to worsen this year, exacerbated by a slowing economy, and the currency and trade dispute with the US.
The slowdown threatens the margins of key petrochemical producers in China and other parts of Asia, and paves the way for a growing glut of gasoline supplies flooding regional markets, weighing down on prices and refining margins.
Chinese motor vehicle sales in the first half of 2019 plunged 14.35% year on year to 12.18 million units, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics, reigniting worries of a second consecutive year of falling sales.
China's wholesale car sales dropped 7.8% on year to 1.73 million units in June, despite retailers offering discounts of up to 30% to destock inventories of cars with old emissions standards. Sales are expected to fall 11% on year in 2019, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
"As such, we estimate passenger vehicle wholesales will continue dropping by 13% year on year in 3Q19. The decline will likely ameliorate to -2.7% year on year in 4Q19 on the back of year-end discount offered by retailers," Platts Analytics said in its latest China oil market forecast.
"There is no sign of recovery in the Chinese car industry anytime soon amid the US-China trade war, which has extended into the currency war now," Eun Young Lee, equity research vice president, at DBS said.
The International Energy Agency said that while worldwide car sales could drop by 5% this year as the economy slows, the decline will be particularly pronounced in China, which represents a third of global car sales.
The bleak outlook for Chinese car manufacturers is having a direct impact on gasoline and petrochemical demand.
BEARISH ABS AND SBR MARKETS "Together with a strong increase in production capacity and a general slowdown in economic activity, the sharp drop in automobile sales explains part of the difficulties currently experienced by the petrochemical sector," the IEA said in its latest monthly report.
It added that carmakers use a lot of plastic and petrochemical products, and petrochemical feedstock demand has been particularly weak in recent months, with global naphtha demand under pressure since March and LPG/ethane demand barely recovering to last year's levels.
There is a bearish impact on Asian acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) markets, both of which are used for car manufacturing, and prices have already fallen.
ABS prices hit a three-year low of $1,370/mt CFR China August 7, while prices for SBR for the 1502 grade -- commonly used in passenger vehicle tires -- also dipped to an eight-month low of $1,290/mt CFR SEA August 8, according to Platts assessments.
Should car sales dip further, ABS demand over one year could shrink by around 768,000 mt, market sources said.
Some SBR producers, such as China's Zhejiang Transfar Chemicals Group, China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. and Thailand's Bangkok Synthetic Co., have already announced plant maintenance shutdowns in response to the negative margins.
With July's SBR margins averaging minus $105.53/mt, basis CFR China, several SBR sources have also warned of more cuts in following months should negative margins continue.
GASOLINE EXPORTS SHRINK Lower car sales are also stifling gasoline demand growth and worsening the already persistent domestic oversupply in China, prompting higher exports in coming months.
"China's gasoline demand growth has been on a slow decline. Year-on-year growth for 2019 is expected to be around 75,000 b/d, down 29% from the previous year," Anthony Tso, senior analyst at Platts Analytics, said.
"Dampened domestic demand may become more apparent in 2H19, which will encourage more gasoline exports, up to 400,000 b/d (approx. 1.4 million mt) on average for the rest of the year," he added.
China's gasoline exports in May and June were at a relatively low level of 848,000 mt and 998,000 mt, respectively, but analysts said exports in July and August could top 1 million mt/month, with at least one Singapore-based analyst projecting exports of 1.5 million mt.
Oil companies only consumed 42.7%, or 6.78 million mt, of their year-to-date gasoline export quotas in H1, leaving at least 9.11 million mt quota available for rest of the year, Platts data showed.
Fundamentals in the Chinese domestic gasoline market have been weak as large-scale private refineries, like the 400,000-b/d Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery have flooded the market, even as China works on a long-term shift away from internal combustion engine or ICE vehicles to electric vehicles.
US OLEFINS August propylene contract discussions are expected to start this week, according to trade participants. Direction was unclear, however, as the propylene spot market had been moving higher last week, because of falling inventory levels. But sources have also said the market remains well supplied. Meanwhile, US ethylene sources said uncertainty remained about the startup timeline of the closed cracker at ExxonMobil's Baytown, Texas, olefins complex.
US POLYMERS Trade participants said producers were seeking increasing prices for polyethylene, but thin demand and ample supply were still keeping pricing pressure on the market. US polypropylene sources began discussing the pending monthly polymer-grade propylene contract, with at least one source anticipating that it will settle flat at 38 cents/lb. Negotiations should begin in earnest this week, with the settlement impacting spot PP pricing.
LATIN POLYETHYLENE Latin America continues watching a downtrend in polyethylene pricing following the same trend in the US market, sources said. Pricing of HDPE film remains under pressure due to healthy availability and soft global demand. But some market participants said US-origin LDPE is less available for exports after the steam cracker was shut at the ExxonMobil Baytown olefins complex. The Brazilian polyethylene market is expected to start another week with pressure from international prices, which could continue triggering CFR prices to lower levels -- the lowest since S&P global Platts started its assessments. Currency exchange volatility is starting the week less favorable to the Real at Real 4/$1, putting less pressure on domestic prices, still unchanged. In Argentina, domestic prices were expected to be flat after a $50/mt increase last week. The polyethylene market has been under uncertainty after Dow Chemical's Bahia Blanca complex suffered an explosion in its ethylene cracker BB 2 plant in Dow Argentina at the end of June. The company said the complex would be offline until the end of the third quarter. The lack of availability was a driver for the hikes, but market sources said it was softened by the latest currency devaluation of around 30% last week after the recent presidential primary. General interest rates increased to 74%. Therefore, credit is almost unavailable, and activity is expected to slow down in the country.
LATIN POLYPROPYLENE The Latin America polypropylene market is expected to start the week under continued pressure from international prices, sources said. Market participants will continue monitoring the US fluctuating polymer-grade propylene prices, as they influence prices for US PP, sources said. Macroeconomic concerns are also rising as currency depreciation in most Latin America countries against the US dollar continue to affect buying interest. One trader said that market participants had switched their thoughts to September order books, as August demand continued weak. Brazilian polypropylene homopolymer and co-polymer markets were unchanged, seeing less volatility in CFR prices lately.
US VINYLS US export polyvinyl chloride prices were expected to remain in a range of $765-$775/mt FAS Houston this week, where producers settled August pricing, as market participants look toward September pricing negotiations. A deal for H2 September loading to India was heard done at $790-$800/mt FAS Houston, but market participants were skeptical of whether sluggish demand elsewhere would support that pricing level. Indian demand was seen strengthening as buyers were seeking to stock up on PVC volumes ahead of the end of the monsoon season. In addition, last week Asian producers announced fresh September offers up $30/mt from August levels, and one provided less volume than normal with a turnaround planned next month, and volumes designated for India sold out quickly. However, market sources noted that India's decision in July to lift anti-dumping duties on PVC from various countries, including Japan, the European Union, Indonesia and Malaysia, opens the door to more competition to supply that market. Last month, India reduced anti-dumping duties on material from some US producers but did not eliminate them. Upstream, market participants saw little change to ethylene dichloride and caustic soda pricing amid sluggish global demand.
US AROMATICS Prompt benzene prices in the US are expected to remain firm after an uptick in buy interest as sources anticipated tightness in the near term. Domestic production is expected to remain curtailed despite recent improvement in toluene conversion margins, while benzene demand was expected to remain firm. Demand was bolstered by talk of an outage downstream at Innova's facility at Triunfo. Details and confirmation were unavailable, but sources said the outage spurred 18,000-20,000 mt of styrene exports, and this had lent support to higher styrene prices. These dynamics were not expected to change, and styrene demand was expected to remain firm amid anticipated outages by multiple European producers. In toluene, prices were expected flat to lower as pricing continued to trace declining blend values. Lower toluene pricing was expected to support toluene conversion margins but was unlikely to lead to an increase in run rates. In xylenes, mixed xylenes pricing was expected to continue tracing blend values after a recent jump in pricing. Participants said that buy interest had increased ahead of planned maintenance by Suncor, though this was not confirmed at time of publication. Paraxylene was expected to see continued pressure from global length. Pricing was talked at $790-$800/mt FOB USG, though discussions were purely academic amid a dearth of spot activity.
2019 2nd half Outlook: Global propylene supply to remain healthy on extra capacity, strong inventories
US inventories establish records in 2019 US-Europe arbitrage under pressure, but outlook mixed Asia likely to stay stable-to-soft as a result of additional PDH plants
Global propylene markets will continue to see healthy supply availability in the second half of 2019 as fresh capacity comes online in Asia and US inventory levels remain strong. As supply improved, alongside a slowdown in derivatives demand, global propylene spot prices fell this year from the multi-year highs seen in 2018, and the US market has taken the steepest dive. US propylene supply has recovered in the first half of 2019, as production from propane dehydrogenation units has improved. This was in line with expectations for the front half of the year, and eventually led to record high inventory levels of 6.459 million barrels in March, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Trade participants have said this is something they expect to continue for the remainder of the year. The overall increase in inventories has pressured US propylene spot prices, leaving them well below 2018 levels. Polymer-grade propylene spot prices hit a low of 32 cents/lb ($705/mt) FD USG in late February before rebounding and then receding again to 32 cents/lb FD USG in mid-June. US EXPORTS INCREASE, BUT ARBITRAGE TO EUROPE CHALLENGED IN H2 As supply length pushed spot prices to levels not seen since the end of 2016, US propylene exports have increased through the first four months of 2019, according to data from the US International Trade Commission. Volumes mainly headed to Latin America, and market participants have said they expect this to continue throughout 2019.
Europe has also seen an increase in shipments of US molecules as players anticipated supply tightness amid a heavy steam cracker turnaround schedule in the second quarter. According to Eurostat data, imports from the US in the first four months of 2019 averaged 13,600 mt/month, compared with 920 mt/month in the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, imports reached an all-time high in February of 63,760 mt, the data show. Since the beginning of 2019, Europe polymer grade propylene has traded at a premium to other regions before falling below $1,000/mt FD NWE, close to levels in Asia and narrowing the gap with the US.
With that recent relative weakness, market players have started questioning if arbitrage opportunities still exist, already anticipating a decline in imports from the US. The premium of the European PGP spot price over its US equivalent was calculated at between $150/mt and $200/mt at the beginning of July, meaning the arbitrage was closed on paper. "The arbitrage has been challenged, but from a volume perspective there is enough propylene for August," one European player said. However, more planned maintenance is expected in Europe between August and October, meaning supply could turn tighter if the current trend continues.
ATTENTION IN ASIA TURNS TO NEW CAPACITY Meanwhile, the Asian market will focus on startups, with more than 1.2 million mt/year of extra propylene production capacity expected to come online in China by H2. This includes China's Fujian Meide Petrochemical's 660,000 mt/year PDH plant in September and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's 600,000 mt/year PDH plant by the end of H2. The additional capacity could reduce Chinese reliance on imported cargoes and exert pressure on spot price. "We imported 600,000 mt of propylene feedstock for our two 500,000 mt/year polypropylene plants last year and will reduce the imports by 400,000 mt once our PDH plant is operating at full rate," said a company source at Fujian Meide Petrochemical.
As for the rest of Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Korea, there will be less turnarounds in H2 compared with the front half of the year, ensuring a relatively stable supply of propylene, especially in the final three months of the year. Three steam crackers in the region with a total propylene capacity of over 1.5 million mt/year were heard to have plans for turnarounds in the current quarter. Chandra Asia, the major player in Indonesia, is expected to shut down its cracker for turnaround by August 1, while Formosa Petrochemical's No. 2 steam cracker unit will carry out scheduled maintenance by mid-August. Lotte Chemical is scheduled to shut its Daesan cracker by October 14.
Other market participants were keeping a close watch on the Malaysia's Petronas-Aramco RAPID project, which has experienced delays in the startup of the cracker and refinery. The complex's RFCC is now scheduled to produce 600,000 mt/year of propylene by the end of Q3, but is only due to produce on-spec propylene in Q4, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.
Roger Lim Tau Kiat Shell total share 300m, lctitan 2400m . If lctitan net profit can hit 600m/ quarter, then possible to rm20/ share 21/08/2019 12:11 PM
So far the best Qtr was 404m & EPS 23.38c, how to hit 600m??? Is the co still holding >76% shares? It may be de-listed. Better do something... Can sell me cheap kah?
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Posted by Jiahui Foo > 2019-08-13 09:24 | Report Abuse
Hahaha.....Titan Boleh!