biz wise will be great in next year. pls believe your own judgement and only market sentiment is beyond control in sometime but it will come back stronger.
The Malaysian manufacturing sector continued to improve in November. In a separate statement, IHS Markit said the ASEAN manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory during November but the PMI was down at 52.3 compared with 53.6 in October.
Indonesia recorded the fastest rate of expansion with the PMI (53.9), followed by Malaysia (52.3), Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore (52.2), Thailand (50.6) and Myanmar (50.0). Commenting on the result, the economist Lewis Cooper said the PMI remained above the 50.0 mark to signal another improvement in manufacturing conditions, buoyed by further increase in factory production, with the rate of output growth easing only slightly from October's survey record.
"Overall, the latest data provide some promising signs, with the ASEAN manufacturing sector continuing to recover, and rates of growth in output and new work sticking close to their recent peaks," he said.
Reflection:
The manufacturing production has been increasing since October. In other words, barring unforeseen circumstances such as new rounds of lockdowns, manufacturers are more likely to make more money in Q4 than they did in Q3. Besides, PMI in other ASEAN countries are showing recovery too. It is good news as QES derives most of its revenue from ASEAN countries : Malaysia (42.1%), Singapore (18.1%), Vietnam (14.6%), the Philipes (5.2%) and Indonesia (5.4%).
correct. If you have more capital can split it to average down. If you afraid, might need to set a cutloss point to save your money..Nobody will know what will happen especially msia stock..
To answer this question, we need to identify the setbacks faced by the industry as a whole.
Below are the setbacks/challenges listed by QES, Mi, Vitrox, Pentamaster and Greatec in their quarterly reports:
QES (Q3, 2021)
QES reported a decline in the distribution section but a slight increase in the manufacturing section. However, no specific reason is provided in the report. I can only identify a few general problems faced by the group under the prospect section:
1. The decline in revenue was primarily a result of realignment with customers on the shipment delivery date to next quarter as a result of temporary supply chain disruption due to Covid-19 cases.
I only list out the problems faced by the division of SEBU of MI so that we can make an apple-to-apple comparison.
In the third quarter, the revenue stayed flat as per last year without strong growth, mainly due to:
1. Change in customer order trend where some orders were pulled in earlier to Q2 2021 in anticipation of the possible interruption by full lockdown in Malaysia. Some were pushed out to the subsequent quarters to suit customers’ capex spending timing and revised new capacity schedule.
2. Global chip shortage from upstream wafer fabs has influenced customers’ capacity plan, hence, deferment in delivery schedule.
Penta is the only group among the four main ATE makers that show QoQ improvement. I will only consider its Automated Test Equipment segment here. Despite its higher profit compared to Q2 2021, the increase was marginal. Here are the reasons:
1. The Group undertook a higher quantum of prototype projects for proof of concept and lower margin product mix.
2. The profit margin was also affected by the higher component price of certain material and an escalating shipment cost.
3. With the impending opening up of more cross border travelling, the Group anticipates a smoother progress in its project site installation and deployment at its customer’s premise, which is an important milestone for revenue recognition to take place. (In other words, the group's revenue is actually a lot more than it is on paper, but it cannot be recognised in Q3 due to travelling restrictions)
4. The semiconductor shortage and supply chain constraints remained a pertinent concern to the global technology market. As it is, the Group has been experiencing order intake momentum where customers across the industry segments are gradually preparing for higher levels of inventory to ensure supply security.
1. The group's profit drops QoQ due to the lower revenue contribution from PLS. There were some rescheduling from customer to postpone the equipment installations due to the strictest lockdown measures by certain country.
2. Furthermore, there were lesser revenue recognised during the current financial quarter due to the PLS shipped in the last quarter were in customer site acceptance this quarter.
3. In addition, the new projects have yet to reach the milestone for revenue recognition during this quarter.
From the extracts taken out from the groups' quarterly reports, we know that the whole industry is facing generally the same type of problems. Most of them have orders in hand, but the revenue cannot be recognised due to a variety of problems, particularly lockdowns and shipment delays in Q2. However, we can rest assured that the prospect of the industry is still intact (unlike the glove industry), and QES is not the only group that has seen drops in revenue QoQ.
As long as the fundamentals of QES and the industry prospect are still intact, we don't have to worry too much. What we can do now is to wait for the bearish market to get over.
As Mr Koon Yew Yin once said, once the tide rises, it raises all boats. (Don't forget QES has been increasing its capex to capture the burgeoning market share).
I would like to share my new findings with all of you here. I hope you enjoy reading it. Please point out my mistakes if there is any.
Similar to Aemulus, Elsoft and Greatec, QES’s manufacturing division is involved in EVs. To date, the global sales of EV have increased by 91%. From 2020 to 2021, China’s EV sales have increased by 6.2 %. In 2021, EV constitutes 11.7% in the Chinese automotive market. China’s EV sales are expected to increase by 18% in 2023. The European market has increased by 61% from 2020 to 2021. In 2021, EV constitutes over 15% or the European automotive market. It is estimated that in 2025, EV will constitute 30% of the global automotive market. From the article on Digitimes Asia, it is clear that the industry of EV is burgeoning. This industry trend is in line with QES’s newly launched products – PDA1000V and WSM1200 – which are used extensively in EVs. If QES manages to bag large orders for its manufacturing division, the market will value it favourably.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
FreshNoob
245 posts
Posted by FreshNoob > 2021-11-26 14:54 | Report Abuse
Walao.. break how many support level liao