Got my TP for IFCA-WA, thanks to richman's comment some weeks ago. It's not exciting but the number one goal is to make some money:-) Am considering mpay-w now.
Am also thinking about DBE and its warrant. Since the mother is only 3 sen more, why not this one instead of the warrant? For one thing, there won't be any premium to pay. Plus no expiration date, which means I can wait 100 years for it to go to RM7.00:-)
Silver Bird - What richman says must be considered. However, I'm going to make a high risk calculated investment with it. But please don't follow me if you aren't prepared to (1) wait (2) face the real possibility of losing all of most of your capital.
I have allocated 10% of my capital for this category of counters - the very high risk. But not all 10% are in just one counter though. Due to its nature, the *potential* for profits MUST be at least 50%. Although it looks foolhardy (and I know time might prove *it is*), with Silver Bird I'm betting on this factor: its restructuring. It was recently granted 60 (or is it 90?) days by the High Court to go about this without being harassed too much by its MANY creditors. I know for a fact that the management is busily undertaking this since a few months ago.
Here is thinking and the calculated risk: at 0.08 sen now, what's the worst that could happen? Answer: It gets suspended, delisted and winded up. If all three happens, then my 8 sen is `hangus'.
But what if the restructuring plan is viable and approved by the High Court and market authorities? Will it not go (much?) higher than 8 sen? DEFINITELY. How much higher? I don't know because we'll have to get to that stage first. Only after the restructure, and with a better future than now (not too difficult, because it is now at rock bottom) would the management consider any bids for it.
The second-worse case scenario is this: SB is forced to be sold in a fire sale. In that case, I'll have to salvage what I can - the 8 sen might turn into 2 sen. But I'm prepared to take the loss because I know what I'm getting into.
Let's use this as a project and see what happens. My immediate timeframe is that something should happen by the end of this year (4 months)... and I'm targeting *at least* a 50% gain. If my calculated risk works, even Bernie Madoff will be jealous:-P Let's see how it goes.
Mat C, kudos for the great overview... I'll consider this counter still got potential and risky too... If I go in maybe for few lots la.. Say 20... Good luck to us ya!
Ching Yin Carrot Loh - Don't think too much about the dark clouds and roadblocks. It's something that happens/will happen to all of us when we enter the stockmarket. In these situations, try to be objective and see what our `mistakes' or the factors beyond our control are (same with when we made gains - must analyse on how and why we succeeded and try to replicate it).
As always, have patience. Often, this turns losing trades into winning ones - the "time factor". I learn this from my father, who has been in the market since the 70's...and still around when many others have long quitted. I've thought about it and his most crucial strength is his ability to sit and wait. And wait some more, sometimes for years! The magic of time would rescue most of his previously losing counters, with some of them giving high proit margins (this is one person who won't take a mere 10% profit.. unlike me Heheh!)
Guys, take note that I'm NOT recommending Silver Bird. Definitely not. Especially if one is relatively new in the market. Don't want his experience to turn sour with these high risks investments - no, it's "speculating", but certainly not gambling and lamenting "This is all because I listened to that nut Mat Cendana and his crazy strategies!":-) But I know some people can see my logic, although they might not be confident the speculating will turn out this way.
Mat, thanks for the soft reminder... No worries as I think all traders are aware of the risk in klse world and will do a double blind study on every counter that may reel in their interest before placing their hard earn money... :)
Mat, sorry to chip in. Thanks for the writeup of silver ..... bird. Make my night reading exciting. No need to issue statements warning readers to be careful and bla bla. Dont waste your time typing the usual statements
Sir tony... No offense... But no harm reminding all investors about the risk they may faced at later stage... Some passerby might think its a buy call and jump in the boat without strong basis.. Just my 2cents...
tony - pirate99 is right and hence my caution. There are people who feel overwhelmed by the market. So many counters; some not going anywhere, some losing, and some with that exiting trait which all of us want - going up and up all the time. "So which one will be the next one to give that thrill?"
Nothing wrong with looking for ideas and answers because that's what we all do. Including me, of course (in fact, the comments here influence my decisions more that those by the investment banks). BUT these comments and theories should be accepted and used only as a part of the individual's selections and decisions. Unfortunately, some might see them as "tips", which they are not. At least not with any of my comments. These are just mere opinions and speculations.
This isn't being modest or humble, but the truth - I have been wrong so many times before (but I've been right too...just like most people). What I'm concerned about is that sometimes my comments sound exuberant and confident and those who are new might be led into thinking these are also "correct". That's why we have to keep reminding the people here to be cautious and not be too influenced by the comments here; not just by me but others too.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by richman > 2012-08-29 09:41 | Report Abuse
MPAY-W.DBE-W 3.5CTS,IFCA-W-DIPS,