Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are:
1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks?
2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value?
3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks?
4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future?
5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return?
Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?
thanks kcchongnz, scgm dividend use to be 3 sen for many yrs when the share price stuck at 40 sen level for a long time. now dividend of 5 sen is great, hopefully they can maintain the 5 sen dividend
KC, just to reconfirm my own figures, please guide me.
regarding your MFCB post, year 2012 report 1. You got your FCF/IC = 23%. What is your IC figure? Here is mine. I got only 19% 248251+48216+10812+69442+9158+142466-793-51950= 475602
2. What is your capex figure for year2012?
3. Common Stock = Share capital, right?
4. How do you get the PE ratio and Share Price of previous years? By estimation? In order to get DY, Market Cap for previous years?
5. Also, what is your Ebit figure? My Ebit is 119,885
TeckChuan, Excellent! One of my best students. Can I call you as a student of mine????
Now I am using the annual report of MFCB instead of initially of the unaudited report when it was first published. So my figures in the financial statement as the same as yours now.
1) Initially I disregard the "Goodwill" as part of the IC. Goodwill is something the company paid for an acquisition over and above its book value and the overpayment is recorded as "goodwill". After looking at your computation and I though about it, we should include it as it is part of money or capital spent on the acquisition. Furthermore excluding it will result a higher ROIC, which may be projecting an over optimistic view on the operating efficiencies of the company. Since we are contemplating of whether to invest in the company, it is better to be a little conservative. So a cash return (FCF/IC) of 19%, instead of my previous 23% is still good right?
I also previously ignored the long-term receivables of RM793 from the IC. So now I take your figure. But this is insignificant. Actually very few companies have long-term receivables.
So here I learn something new from you.
2) My capex is 22.8m for 2012. Should be the same as yours as now we got the same cash return above.
3)Yes, common stock, share capital are the same
4)Share price for previous years is not a fixed figure, is it? So there is a range of the price and hence the dividend yield. Some may take the average price and DY.
5)We have the same ebit. But this is arbitrary too. For example, why do we ignore the "other operating income" as part of the ebit? It could well be part of the "operating income". Many companies also consider interest income, gain in sales of PPE, etc as operating income which I think is not right. I was lazy to find out exactly what are there. And ignoring it also is a conservative approach as I also carry out DCFA using operating income, if you notice.
SAD kcchongnz fans. market at 1805 soo good still ur sifu stocks not up ah??? LOL....u know that is what happens when u try to learn something for free online.. LOLZ
Uncle Chong, another one chasing and barking behind your back? Sounds like he is not happy that you are giving free lessons teaching people how to pick stocks le! This so called newbie guy must be one of those 'sifus' making money by giving talks and all that! You grab his potential 'students'( and money ) so he is barking at you liao! You 倒米啊?
Would like to step in, to support kcchongnz from the vicious attack of newbiestock, who is obviously a rabies infected victim.
I am a strong supporter of FA and have been investing/trading for many years now. What kcchongz is discussing here perfectly makes sense and should be the absolute fundamental when it comes to investing in equities.
trading & investing is 2 different ball games, what you learn might not translate into real trading situations. this is what we call school of hard knocks. learn from experience and not just rely on text books.
contra plays and short term investing is different. what's important is your time frame (holding period) this makes a winner or a loser. this is my personal viewpoint. happy trading
support kcchongnz all u want little people. the fact is that his stocks neva go up and he is a conman that is all. ler. call me whatever u want,. this site is free for all to talk and so u can talk
shaddap la newbiestock. u jealous kkchongnz got supporters even if his stock never go up is it? people want to follow this 'conman' so what can you say? and yes we are 'little people' so why are you wasting your time on us 'little people' ??you've talked enough to let everyone know and your job is done.
fastinvest,DrPitchard (first time see your name), chlooi and others, thanks for the good words. I did no these words are sometimes soothing.
But if you have read any of the posts of this fellow who attacks me now, you would know this fellow is not a sane person. He is definitely something wrong one! Notice I have totally ignored him?
fastinvest, I 倒米啊? Do you think that he can teach to earn money? That fellow kookoo one. Don't waste time on him.
Lai lai lai, 上课了。。。。 Yes,whatever I write and answer (mostly) here is not for anyone to make money in the share market, but to learn something which may be, I said may be useful for your investing experience.
So for those who think of getting tips of what share to be fried, how much money you can make etc, this is not for you.
that truth is kcchongnz stocks neva go up all tipu only. dont get defensive ler. calling names and all. dont practise double standards. i am just saying what i can see. u dont like it dont read ler.
Dear Kc, what is ur view on Whitehorse ( code 5009 ). Is it a hidden gem worth investing? I apologise to bringing this up again, but i really would like to know ur view on it before i make any long term investment no it. It is in the tiles business that i consider not that competative in Malaysia. And the current price at 1.69 is much lower then it NAV of 2.94 . Dividend is almost 6% . My main concern is there seems to be not much interest in it and the price seems to be stucked. Pls guide me.
Extreme retard inc ceo, newbiestock is back to spread down right moron comments which is trash to the core, shoo...shoo...go back to the dog house and suck on the brown stuff that u create
Exactly 6 months has passed. What is the return of this portfolio? It is 38%, or annualized 76%. 76% in a year, my god!!!! How did you do that! This compares with only 10.5% of the broad market, more than 3 times above the market return, my god!
So does my FA works ,folks? Did Kumpulan Fima share price plunged?
I seldom talk about share price, and especially how much I made etc. But I think it is time to put up the performance of my portfolio liow.
So folks, please commend on return of the stocks I have selected with FA!
i told people to buy hlind at 4.3 4 weeks ago now 5.26 how much is that ???? can count ah? so please la OK.. u joker. 23percent in 1 month is how muchin one year?
kcchongnz u know nothing about stocks nothing.. just plain silly luck ler wait and see how u will become a victim here soon when people start to lose money due to ur crap advice
Posted by iafx > Jul 24, 2013 11:37 AM | Report Abuse 38%?! oppsss... :D :D :D
?????? do you know how to read the return as shown in the table? 100% not. I know you through in and out already oh.
So where is your portfolio? How much have you made? MKland? How much have you lost? Some people just huhuhu in the forum. Talk about nonsense. Can't even compute simple thing like return, CAGR. Doesn't comprehend what is the basic balance sheet equation, ROE etc.
Some more changed post and then accused others of doing so.
The evidence is everywhere. You can't fool others all the time.
hng33 is also not me ah! I know KPS is dropping, but don't scold me, I am not hng33. I am not disappearing when KPS share price drops. OTB? He is having fierce but friendly argument with me now. And we are not talking to our ownself, you know.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 07:26 | Report Abuse
Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are: 1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks? 2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value? 3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks? 4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future? 5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return? Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?