Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

In valuation, it is better to be approximately right than to be absolutely wrong.

Valuing PBB has been relatively easy for me over many years. There were times when it was obvious that it was priced cheap and at a discount to its fair value, and I added. Often it traded at fair value. On occasions, it's price relatively higher than its fair value ( just hold, do you sell?). The remarkable thing about PBB, or similar great companies: every time the price reaches a new all time high, you know you have invested well.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Of course, prices of ALL stocks are volatile.

A few stocks in my portfolio have seen their share prices dropped by 50%. The returns over the last 1 year had been a big loss. The returns over the last 5 years, had shown probably losses too, albeit smaller. The returns over the last 10 years, showed fair gains. The returns over the last 20 years , the gains remained very good. The returns over the last 30 years, remained fantastic.

They are still multi-baggers over a long period of investing despite their huge
fall in prices. Over the long period of investing, their prices had fallen by huge amounts too and there were also periods when their share prices stagnated for a long long time.

What do value investors like most?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Nvidia

Returns over various periods
1 year. Loss
2 years
5 years
10 years
20 years

Though the price of Nvidia has multiplied many folds, those invested over the last 1 year might be still in a loss position. Those who invested 3 or 4 years ago, enjoyed >100% gains. The truly big winners are those who invested very yearly and have the conviction to hold onto the stock untill today, their gains are multiple of 1,000s folds. These are a few only.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

KAF vs Karambunai

These were 2 listed companies that have been taken private. Comparing these 2 companies allow us to fathom how to approach asset play in investing.

KAF
For years, it was trading around 1.50. Yet, it paid regular dividends which gave a yield of 4 or 5% annually. The dividends were continuous and sustainable. It was an asset play, in the sense, it held a piece of land in the KLCC area (Jalan Conlay) and this piece of land was priced at a historical price and yet it was obvious the land was worth a lot more. The longer you remained in this company, the more valuable is the price of this land; yet the share price remained at RM 1.50. Yet, for holding this share, you earned a dividend yield comparable or slightly better than your risk free interest rate at the bank. It was eventually taken private by Khatijah and her friends at a premium to its share price.


Karambunai was also another stock that was an asset play. It was a loss making company. It did not pay dividends for many years. It was a penny stock. Yes, it owns huge track of land in that area. Only a small portion was developed. The hotel was great (having stayed there on 2 occasions in past) in a lovely beach area. But the development that would have monetised the land was not successful, leaving a large piece of the land in its natural state. Based on land value, the assets were worth more than the market cap of the company then. If you bought into this company hoping to benefit from an asset play situation, you might or might not be lucky. If unlucky, the company continuing losses, led to bankruptcy and de-listed with the shareholders losing everything. If lucky, a white knight appears and offer to take your shares off you at a premium; the only thing is when and how soon. If you had to wait 20 years and the price offered was doubled that of your buying price 20 years ago, was it a good return? You are basically at the mercy of the major shareholder, who happened to be rich and able to offer to take it private at a slight premium to the share price but at a huge discount to the fully monetised value of the land.

In summary, you must know the games you wish to play.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Turnarounds: Hai-O, Guan Chong and Latexx

If you can spot the turnarounds early than others, before the market realises them, you can make a lot of money. These are not for long term investments.

Many companies do not enjoy economic moats and their businesses are highly competitive. At times, due to business of the sector or due to poor managements, the companies entered a period of poor performances and these affected the companies' profits and correspondingly their share prices. Many of these companies remained gruesome and never turnaround, and should not be invested into; also better avoided.

On occasions, you might be able to spot a turnaround. If you can spot it earlier than others, you have the opportunity to make a lot of money. How do you spot this? A lot of focus, hard work, screening many companies on a regular basis. It can be tiring, time consuming; thus, serious investing can be a full time commitment.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Hai-O

Many years ago, Hai-O was a gruesome company. Its businesses were so diversified and fragmented. There was no direction in its focus. It was profitable but the profit was very anaemic indeed. It was a struggling company, and not surprisingly, its share price traded at a very low price. After a few years, its revenues and profits started to improve. It had a new business stream (MLM). Most of the participants were Malays and growth was visible. With improving new business, the management also restructured its gruesome business. It divested a lot of its other small, small businesses. Focus was on the Hai-O Chinese imports business and on the MLM. It controlled costs, reducing its borrowings. The revenues expanded, its profit margins improved and its profits grew at a faster rate than revenue growth. In those early one to two years, this turnaround was unnoticed by the herd. The share price remained in the doldrum. It was perhaps 2 to 3 years, when the turnaround story started to be noticed. Soon, there were write ups on Hai-O, and funds started to invest into it. The lay public piled in later. The share price of Hai-O climbed from pennies to $3 , then $4 and I think, reached up to $5+. I sold a bit too early, perhaps, around $3 to $4. Yet the price shot up further.

Today, Hai-O is by another name. Its business has deteriorated. I have not looked at this counter for a while, maybe will just take a peep. ( It is renamed Besholm)

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Guan Chong

For a very long time, Guan Chong, a cocoa refiner was a loss making company more than a decade ago. Its profits were very volatile, often showing losses. Its shareholders suffered.

Just before the subprime global financial crisis, I noticed its revenues and profits were climbing. Its profit margins expanded many folds from its very low profit margins that were frequently negative. Cocoa prices were high due to political and social problems in the producer countries in Africa. However, GCB had hedged its cocoa inventories in advance and had benefitted from the increase in cocoa prices in its inventories. Its capacity was now limited in Johor and it invested into new production and refining capacity in Batam, Indonesia. In Indonesia, it has good supply of cocoa from local producers. When the global financial crisis occurred in 2008/2009, those in similar industries like GCB in Europe suffered financial ruins. They scaled down their businesses due to losses and lack of funding. Buyers of their produce turned to other producers for their supplies. This benefitted GCB. With improving revenues, and profits, GCB also increased its dividends paid out to the shareholders.

If you had spotted GCB at the stage of its turnaround, its price was in the pennies. The price soon climbed with its increasing good business profits and more people noticing this counter. It climbed in tandem with its good and better profits. I think I sold it eventually at around $2,80.

GCB remains a challenging business even today. But the management has continues to deliver,

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Latexx

Many glove companies were started in the early years. Only a few survived. Latexx was an early starter and listed in Bursa. But it soon fell on hard times. Losses in business led to brothers having different views on its business. Huge borrowings and losses led to its continuing difficulty. The business was restructured and its share price was in the doldrum. The banks and the creditors were asked to help, converting their unpaid debts into equity and given free warrants. The brothers were bought out by a single brother. The restructuring coincided with a period when the production capacity was insufficient to meet the demand in the world market. Due to poor market demand, the glove industries had under invested in capacity in the prior period. When the demand improved, the production capacity was inadequate. That was the picture then.

Doing some scuttlebut t investing, I discovered through speaking to various people in the industry, the main players had difficulty to meet these supplies. Some have more orders to fulfil and they had to contract these orders to other glove manufacturers. I too discovered that some managers had moved to Latexx during this period and they were talking favourably about this turnaround company. Those with knowledge of the glove industries as they worked in it, I was surprised was buying into Latexx and not in the companies they were working in. With this knowledge, I did some research into Latexx and could see clearly it was a turnaround, a huge one as such. Buying its mother shares was very rewarding but buying its warrants was even more so. From pennies in its mother shares (<50 sen) and from mini pennies of its warrants (10 sen or so), its price rose to a few ringgit (RM 2 or RM3 or RM4). Those who got into this stock, at the time of its turnaround and cyclical upturn in the glove business, made a huge amount of profits on their investment.

This stock was eventually taken private when bought by an OEM company.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

A fast grower than was actually a cyclical

KNM was a darling stock at one time. It is a service business within the O&G sector. After transferring to the main board, its business continued to grow at a fast rate. Its earnings similarly. Growth was also manufactured through frequent acquisitions. With each acquisition, its business grew revenues and earnings; and debts too. Its share price was driven up quickly during these early days. The O&G sector was growing due to insufficient demand to meet the supply.
KNM then acquired Borsig. Borsig was a much bigger company and this acquisition incurred a lot of borrowings.

I was still learning about stocks. Fast growers like KNM was extremely attractive for investors. Moreover, it was great feeling to see its share price grew so quickly after its transfer to the main board. I bought into this stock when it was about to transfer to the main board. I watched the investment like a hawk, wary of its fast growth, through acquisitions; yet, was excited and lull into complacency, by the phenomenon gain. Yes, I have read the story of Infosys, when it was growing at a fast pace in its early years, chased by many investors; and suddenly, the growth slowed or stopped, and the whole PE collapsed, causing many investors to lose money, even though Infosys remains profitable and still growing, abeit slower.

Very soon after this acquisition, the oil prices fell drastically. Business collapsed quickly. The profits shrunk and soon the debts became too big. Accounting for impairments also hit the bottom line. KNM's share price fell quickly and precipitously. I took my profits, though not at its highest.

Today KNM is a shadow of its hey days.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Maybulk

China was the catalyst to world trade. Large amounts of goods required to be transported from one region to another. The bulk carriers are asset intensive businesses, and just like airlines are better avoided in the long term. Why? The economics of these businesses are generally very challenging and difficult.

My attention was brought to Maybulk by a friend. He was attracted by the consistent high DY of Maybulk during that period. Studying its business, Maybulk was profitable in its main business. Even more impressive, due to shortage of bulk carriers, it was able to make a lot of profit disposing its used bulk carriers and its was cash rich. Management rewarded the shareholders generously through increasing dividends. I bought into the company and sure enough, with good profits from selling its bulk carriers and good profits from its bulk carrier business, its profits grew and its dividends and share price similarly. It peaked at 3.50 in 2008.

Then the global financial crisis came. Businesses round the world shrunk. Bulk carriers lay empty. New bulk carriers previously ordered by everyone in this sector came into the market. The fundamentals of the whole business changed for the worse.

Directors of Maybulk sold. In fact, they sold almost all their shares. Even though Robert Kuok is a major shareholder of this company, the fundamentals of the business prevail. Its share price collapsed gradually and then quickly when the seriousness of the impact on this sector became more widely known. I sold off after the collapse of the share price around $2.30 + or thereabout.

When the share price dropped by 20% or more, do not ignore this. Take a look at the business of the company. Is it a temporary or a permanent problem facing this business? Sell quickly when the fundamentals of the company deteriorated permanently and you cannot see its turnaround in the distant future. Sell first, think later.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Poh Kong 12/12/2024

Price RM 0.985
Market Capital (RM) 404.20m
Number of Share 410.35m
Revenue (TTM) 1.642B
Net Profit (TTM) 116.92M
Net Margin (TTM) 7.1%
EPS (TTM) 28.49
P/E Ratio 3.46
ROE 13.44%
P/B Ratio 0.46
NTA 2.120

5y CAGR - Revenue 10.4%
5y CAGR - Profit 35.2%

Dividend (cent) 3.000 ^
Dividend Yield 3.05%
Dividend Policy 0%
Dividend Payout 1 Year Average Payout 11% 10% 13%
Equity Growth 14% 45% 58%
Net Cash (RM) -119.68M *
Net Cash/Share (RM) 0.00
Free Cash Flow (cent) 77.92M (18.99) *
Debt/Asset Ratio 14% *

* Fundamental data ended 2024-07-31.
^ Total dividend amount declared for financial year ended 2024-07-31.


Do you know why Poh Kong is trading at very low PEs, almost all the time?
I did the analysis many times over many years and concluded that the low PEs were appropriate.
After all, the price or intrinsic value of a company is the discounted value of all its future cash flows.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Low PE stocks may have high-risk earnings or low growth.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

PE Ratio and Fundamentals

Proposition: Other things held equal, higher growth firms will have higher PE ratios than lower growth firms.

Proposition: Other things held equal, higher risk firms will have lower PE ratios than lower risk firms

Proposition: Other things held equal, firms with lower reinvestment needs will have higher PE ratios than firms with higher reinvestment rates.

Summary: In general, a company with higher growth, lower risks and lower reinvestment needs, has higher PE.

Of course, other things are difficult to hold equal since high growth firms, tend to have risk and high reinvestment rates.

Posted by Sslee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

How about insas selling below it net cash or it holding in associate company Inari alone?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Company XY

I first invested into this company in 2005 in a lump sum and continues to hold it today. This is 20 years of investing into this company.

Its growth was fast in the first 10+ years, expanding its business units yearly. It was highly profitable, generating strong FCF. It retained most of its earnings in its early years to grow its business and also paid regular dividends. After growing fast in its early years, it has expanded its business to all parts of Malaysia and growth slowed. It continues to generate good and high FCF which it now distributes about 90%+ as dividends. Going forward, unless it can find new business opportunities, I anticipate this company is not going to grow its business much.

This company's life history reflects that of many: initial startup, fast growth phase, slower growth phase and then mature phase. Will it enter a deteriorating phase in its business, remains the same or grow further in the future?

What happened to its share price over the last 20 years? In its early years, the price was quite volatile, though business growth was visible clearly. It was priced $Y in 2005. In the first 2 years of my investing, the price rose to $2Y slowly and then collapsed to below $Y again quickly again. I bought a lot more during this period. After that the price climbed slowly to $2Y and $4Y over the next year or two. A friend of mine who bought at $Y sold at $4Y, happy he had made $3Y on his initial investment. This company continued to grow its business units, revenues, and earnings and distributing increasing dividends. Its share price rose to a high of $15Y a few years ago. From this high price of $15Y, it gradually went down to $7Y over about 2 years. The price gradually recovered to $10Y a few years later and has stayed at around this level since. Of course, all this period, it continues to pay dividends, which is yielding 4% -5% based on the share price today, or 50% yield based on my historical cost.

Lessons from this story:
1. Know the life history of a growing company. Start up, rapid growth phase, slower growth phase, no growth phase .. maturity .. decline. Invest early during the rapid growth phase. Must have the money, courage and the conviction to act. Put in a meaningful amount into the investment.
2. Know the business, its economic moat and the integrity of its management.
3. Stay long term.
4. Market fluctuates. Remember Mr. Market. Take advantage of it. Be rational when studying the share price. Always compare value to price.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Insas may be attractive to value investors, especially due to its strong cash position and low valuation metrics. However, concerns around profitability and operational efficiency might make it less appealing to growth-focused investors.

Posted by BLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

“Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Company XY..”

Good narrative. True or False? No need to mention which counter. My investment in MFCB and Pmetal has almost the same narrative. Invested prices of RM2.xx in MFCB and around RM1 in Pmetal. Still holding MFCB, easily gaining more than 8X including good Dividend and the split/bonus issue. For Pmetal, sold early close to RM3 many years back; if not, easily can gain 10X. That's investment risk, not telling how many counters holding for years are still at negative regions or just break even. For Insas, sold 80% of investment with a gain of easily 3X considering the Dividend and free $ every 5 years..Happy Trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

While Insas has a cash-rich profile, its debt levels may reflect strategic decisions to optimize liquidity, leverage opportunities, and manage risks across diverse operations. Balancing cash retention with debt utilization is typical for investment holding companies, but this may occasionally lead to concerns about efficiency and returns.

Many investors, including SSLee, have raised questions about Insas's use of its substantial cash reserves, suggesting there might be room for a more aggressive approach to debt reduction or dividend enhancement​.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

BLee I always post truthfully.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Insas Berhad is a diversified investment holding company listed on Bursa Malaysia. Its core business segments include:

Investment Holding and Trading: Engages in equity investment, fund management, and trading of securities and derivatives.

Financial Services: Provides stockbroking, corporate advisory, and financial advisory services through its subsidiaries.

Property Development and Investment: Involves in property development, investment, and management of real estate assets.

Technology: Operates in the IT and technology sector through investments in tech-related ventures and companies.

Leisure and Hospitality: Manages leisure-related businesses, including food and beverage operations and car rental services.

The company is recognized for its strategic investments across various industries, creating a diversified revenue base.

Insas has moments of high profitability. Its reliance on investment gains and market-driven income makes its financial performance less predictable.

Posted by xiaoeh > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

personally
i find the definition of "Value Stock" should interpret differently from the eye of trader and corporate
corporate point of view: assets far more than > liabilities = value stock/company
trader point of view: whether or not share price can or cannot move (can move= value stock / cannot move= lousy stock)
ofcoz
if corporate view (assets>liabilities= value stock) + treader view (price can move= value stock) = Best scenario

Posted by Sslee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Definition: Intrinsic value is the Present value of the investment of all the expected cash flow over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate.

Intrinsic value = (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)

Where:
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
d = Discount rate
n = The period number
This Intrinsic value is actually a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Example of intrinsic value of INSAS is then the Sum of DCF expected cash flow from varies business streams.
For INSAS assets rich case, it is my opinion that the liquid assets minus total liabilities should be added to this intrinsic value.

The only flaw on DCF is it did not take into account whether the company is currently in net aseets or net liabilities.

Hence I totally disagreed with CapA independant advisor valuation on AAAGL and AAB which currently billions in net liabilities

Posted by Sslee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

The fact capitalA operating cash flow is not even enough to pay the lease and finance cost lease libilities for lease payment due to lessors.

Hence need more borrowing.

9 months ended 30/9/2024
RM '000
Cash generated from operation 2,365,608
Net cash generated from operating activities 2,162,677

So is cash flow enough to pay what Stony reply in AGM minutes?
The majority of the liabilities of Aviation/AAX are lease liabilities of RM20 billion that will be repaid over the tenure of lease ranging from 12 to 18 years.
Current lease liabilities of RM5 billion represent lease payment due within 12 months and will be serviced by operating cash flow for the next 12 months.
Aviation is expected to generate positive cash flow to service its liabilities going forward, that is supported by valuation of both AAB and AAAGL under the DCF method

Or
Cash flow from financing activities
RM '000
Proceed from borrowings 1,551,768
Repayment of borrowings (524,519)
Repayment of lease liabilities (2,621,956)

Posted by BLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

“ Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > BLee I always post truthfully”

Noted. Please notice that I changed the word from story to narrative and gave two examples of possibility to your narrative; therefore no doubt on your truthfully.
Good sharing; everybody has their investment strategies, there is no wrong or right. I only buy at a dip and sell half if prices move up 30% to 50%. Recent purchase of JAG is a good example. My holding cost now is close to 10sen vs trading price around 34sen..Happy Trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings.


There are two possible ways by which he may try to do this:

- the way of TIMING and
- the way of PRICING.

By timing we mean the endeavor to anticipate the action of the stock market - to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward, to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward.

By pricing, we mean the endeavor to buy stocks when they are quoted below their fair value and to sell them when they rise above such value.

A less ambitious form of pricing is the simple effort to make sure that when you buy you do not pay too much for your stocks. This may suffice for the defensive investor, whose emphasis is on long-pull holding; but as such it represents an essential minimum of attention to market levels.



We are convinced that the intelligent investor can derive satisfactory results from pricing of either type.

We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator's financial results.

This distinction may seem rather tenuous to the layman, and it is not commonly accepted on Wall Street.

As a matter of business practice, or perhaps of thoroughgoing conviction, the stock brokers and the investment services seem wedded to the principle that both investors and speculators in common stocks should devote careful attention to market forecasts.

BENJAMIN GRAHAM

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Insas carries a lot of cash in its balance sheet. Despite this, why is its debt so high?

Insas Berhad maintains significant cash reserves, which are often highlighted as a key strength in its balance sheet. Despite this, its high debt levels arise from its business strategy and financial structure. Here are some potential reasons:

1. Strategic Use of Debt
Leverage for Investments: Insas may utilize debt to fund strategic investments and acquisitions rather than depleting its cash reserves. This allows the company to take advantage of low-interest rates or leverage opportunities in growth sectors.
Portfolio Diversification: As an investment holding company, Insas allocates funds to equity markets, technology ventures, and property development, which might involve borrowing to scale these operations.
2. Cash Not Fully Utilized
Restricted Cash: Some cash reserves might be restricted or allocated for specific purposes, such as collateral for loans or earmarked for ongoing projects.
Low Yielding Returns: Insas may retain cash for liquidity rather than aggressively investing it, especially in uncertain economic climates. However, this conservative approach could lead to reliance on debt for operational or expansionary needs.
3. Debt Financing Costs vs. Opportunity Costs
Companies like Insas may prefer to keep cash as a buffer while using debt for capital-intensive activities. This approach can balance financing costs with maintaining liquidity and flexibility.
4. Mismatch Between Segments
Insas operates in various sectors such as property, stockbroking, and IT. Some segments, like property development, are inherently debt-intensive, requiring significant capital upfront, potentially leading to higher overall corporate debt.
5. Shareholder Returns and Dividends
By holding cash and managing debt, Insas can ensure consistent dividends to shareholders, even during periods of lower profitability, which aligns with investor expectations​

​
.
In summary, while Insas has a cash-rich profile, its debt levels reflect strategic decisions to optimize liquidity, leverage opportunities, and manage risks across diverse operations. Balancing cash retention with debt utilization is typical for investment holding companies, but this may occasionally lead to concerns about efficiency and returns.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Scientex
FY ... Rev .. Net Profit ... NPM
2015 1.8B 158M 8.8%
2016 2.2B 241M 10.9%
2017 2.4B 256M 10.6%
2018 2.6B 290M 11%
2019 3.2B 334M 10.3%
2020 3.5B 390M 11.1%
2021 3.7B 457M 12.5%
2022 4.0B 410M 10.3%
2023 4.1B 434M 10.7%
2024 4.5B 545M 12.2%


Share Price (adjusted)
1st of January
2008 0.1187
2009 0.0998
2010 0.1419
2011 0.2151
2012 0.2965
2013 0.3626
2014 0.6338
2015 0.8657
2016 1.4147
2017 1.9559
2018 2.4937
2019 2.5712
2020 2.7039
2021 3.6153
2022 4.2428
2023 3.3868
2024 3.8938
13.12.2024 4.60

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Scientex

I was late to the party. I hesitated and only got in 2 years later. Glad I invested and now this investment is a 4 bagger, excluding dividends.

First highlighted by a friend regarding this stock. Also read an article on it in a financial magazine that praised the company's well run and growing business. This was when it was still in the manufacturing business. Its venture into housing and development gave it a futher growth and increasing profits.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

What happens to your portfolio if you always sell your winners?

You will end up with a portfolio of losers.😀

Sell the losers and let the winners run.
(Get rid of the weeds and let the flowers bloom.)

Posted by BLee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

“Sslee > The fact capitalA operating cash flow is not even enough to pay the lease and finance cost lease libilities for lease payment due to lessors.
Hence need more borrowing…”

Actually CapA/AAX need to sell more future seats. As I mentioned earlier, CapA/AAX is in a very niche market selling something on borrowed $. The financial difficulties started due to C19. It is at a recovering phase. Will the lessors take back the plane to operate if there is a default? Can the lessors re-lease the old plane to some other operator? Most likely NOT to answer both questions. So the only option is to go along the flow, just like the cow chained by the nose…just my opinion for Happy Trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

If you select your stocks very carefully with a long term focus, in general, for every 5 stocks you have in your portfolio:

1 will turn out bad
3 will be so-so
1 will be very good (a compounder)

By keeping your losses low, the 1 multi-bagger ensures your portfolio will give you good to great returns.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

It is time in the market, not market timing, that counts.

There is no short-term timing strategy that works accurately and consistently

Many people believe that the fastest way to the highest market returns is by short-term trades that are accurately timed. But many years in the investment arena, there is no short-term timing strategy that works.

All nature of pundits have come and gone over the years.

For a short time, any of them may be right and may make one or two amazingly accurate predictions. Eventually, all of them lose the interest of the public when the predictions prove inaccurate.

There is no sure way to accurately and consistently time short-term market movements, and again, the research of scholars have highlighted this.



It is simply better to be in the market, invested in the value stocks, with growth, that offer the highest potential return, than to play the timing game.

Posted by Sslee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

First and foremost my congratulation to INSAS’s BOD and Management team for a job well done in generating sustainable earnings (FY 2024 EPS: RM 0.125) supported by positive cash flows and maintain a positive/healthy financial position (FY 2024 NAPS: RM 3.67 Vs FY 2024 NAPS: RM 3.53) with CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS COMPRISE OF:-
2024 2023
RM’000 RM’000
Cash and bank balances 182,697 104,747
Deposits with licensed banks and financial institutions 1,030,990 943,505
1,213,687 1,048,252
Less:-
Cash and bank balances pledged (Note 21) (30,289) (2,376)
Fixed deposits pledged (Note 20) (214,893) (233,801)
968,505 812,075

Question 1: I’m tired of asking for a better, fairer and equitable dividend year after year with little success. For this year I would like to rephrase my question: Are BOD owed Insas shareholders a duty, responsibility and an explanation when, how and on what conditions the management will use the billion cash hoard for business expansion or return part of the cash hoard as dividend to shareholders?

30/06/2024 30/06/2023
RM'000 RM'000
(Unaudited) (Audited)
Non-current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 30,300 37,652
Redeemable preference shares 129,353 128,622
Current liabilities
Loans and borrowings 198,525 205,309

Current asssets
Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 236,685 222,832

Insas keep money in oversee (pledged) and also borrow money in foreign currency for the financial fair value assets/foreign equity investment.

Posted by xiaoeh > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

maybe Mr Thong is hoarding cash for shopping spree coming downturn like what Warren Buffet did...

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

You have to invest. Inflation is the enemy of your cash. Compounding is the friend of your cash. You do not have a choice but to invest for the long term. The purchasing power of your cash continues to be eroded by inflation.

You have no choice but to be educated on investing. Either you invest on your own or you invest through a fund, you still require an education on investing, to be able to do so intelligently on your own or even to know how to use or work with your fund managers.

The earlier you obtain this education, the better. Sadly, the schools during my time, and perhaps even now, do not teach financial and investing knowledge. Personal finance is a subject that one should quickly learn from others or on your own. There are simple books to get started on this subject, easily available in the book shops. The introduction books on this subject for the first year university students are worth looking at.

Posted by Sslee > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Dec 13, 2024 12:11 PM | Report Abuse

Since common stocks, even of investment grade, are subject to recurrent and wide fluctuations in their prices, the intelligent investor should be interested in the possibilities of profiting from these pendulum swings.

By timing we mean the endeavor to anticipate the action of the stock market - to buy or hold when the future course is deemed to be upward, to sell or refrain from buying when the course is downward

We are equally sure that if he places his emphasis on timing, in the sense of forecasting, he will end up as a speculator and with a speculator's financial results.

Now I know why 3ii is so against timing because he totally miss the goal what is timing about.

Timing is not about looking at price trend everyday to profit from price swing but it is all about looking at the bigger picture of busines and supply and demand inequalibrium that will cause business going into boom or burst cycle and time your entry and exit.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Better to price your entry and exit. 😀
Sometimes, timing coincides with pricing.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

L1

Bought at $X
Share price climbed to $4X
A lot of good news on the company.
Share price climbed to $8X
It then dropped to $6X
Now, that was a chance to get into this great stock at $6X
Bought at $6X, a large amount because of feeling very optimistic on its future business.
Alas, GFC came, the company's business (O&G sector) got decimated.
Price dropped to $4X.
The company's initial business collapsed
However, it s strong balance sheet allowed it to reenter a related new business.
This business is promising and appears lucrative, but risky.
Anyway, my investing into this counter though profitable initially is now a loss.
Will be selling this counter when the right opportunity appears to redeploy the money elsewhere.

Lesson learned:
Always look at risk, before looking at the rewards.
FOMO can be risky. Reframe. Invert.
Another tuition fee paid.
😁😁😁

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

A perfectly timed disaster

I had observed this company for many years. I have understood its business and marvelled by its continuing growth. 4 years ago, I invested, confident that in the long term, this will also be another great company.

Alas, that was not going to be the case. Many smart investors and funds were also invested in this company. A "black swan" appeared. The government decided to regulate the industry this company was in. All companies in this sector fell, but this particular company fell the most compared to the others.

The price I bought was $Z. It soon fell 75% to $0.25Z. All this occured within a few months. What a perfect timing/pricing? What a rotten luck? Don't worry, this is a great company. The price is now even better, cheaper. I bought more. After I bought, it went down another 50% to $0.125Z. I invested a large amount and I lost a lot in a short time in this one counter.

It has rebounded from its lowest price, having gone up between 60% to 70% since. I still believe this company should perform better in its business in the future. It is undervalued and still a good/great company in my book. I am still holding on to this counter. But I did not buy more at the bottom.

What is crossing my mind to date? Probably will need to invest a lot more into this stock at its present price, which I think is low, offering a good upside/downside risk ratio. But since my initial investment was big, this amount will be very big indeed. Is it prudent or foolish? Still debating.

For now, I am still following the news on this company. Recently, the news on this company are improving.

Lesson learned:
You can analyse and observe for a long time, some risks are not predictable.
The event that knocked this company, was truly a "black swan" event, in my book.
Another lesson, was what is cheap, can become cheaper still.
A $1 price dropping to 20 sen, has lost 80%. You may think this is very cheap indeed already.
Be prepared, it dropped from 20 sen to 10 sen, and that is a loss of another 50%.

Many lessons learned.
Paying a heavy tuition fee again. 😁😀😀😅

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

The most popular valuation metrics are Price/Earnings, Price/Ebidta, Price/Sales, Price/Book value and EV/Ebitda.
(EV or Enterprise Value = Market cap + Debt)

Many different methods as listed above are used to arrive at the valuation for stocks.

However, remember that there is ever only one definition for valuation: the discounted cash flow.

All the above metrics are merely short forms or shortcuts for discounted cash flow. These metrics are widely used because they are easier to compute and understand, and can be compared across companies, sectors and markets. Critically, while these shortcut metrics are useful, they are insufficient and sometimes, can be misused to present a false picture.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Most analysts talk about profits, not cash flows.
Profits, as presented based on accounting standards, may not reflect the actual underlying cash flows.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Aeon Credit

Share price (RM)
1st Jan

2008 0.46
2009 0.41
2010 0.63
2011 0.65
2012 1.22
2013 2.30
2014 2.95
2015 2.93
2016 2.69
2017 3.99
2018 5.34
2019 6.51
2020 5.44
2021 4.65
2022 6.55
2023 5.82
2024 5.67
13.12.2024 6.25 Dividend 0.28

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Aeon Credit

FY .. REV .. NP .. NPM(%)
2016 965M 228M 23.6%
2017 1.1B 265M 24.1%
2018 1.2B 300M 24.3%
2019 1.4B 355M 26%
2020 1.6B 292M 18.3%
2021 1.6B 234M 15%
2022 1.5B 365M 24%
2023 1.6B 418M 25.5%
2024 1.9B 424M 22.2%
2025 1.1B 178M 16.7% (2Q)

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

AEON CREDIT

Once again, earnings growth was high in the earlier years. Earnings growth slowed since 2019 and has been range bound.

Its share prices reflected this too.

Those who have invested early into this company from its early years and holding the stocks up to today, would have captured its fast growth phase and be rewarded handsomely.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

For those looking for high growth companies, look at small to medium cap companies. This is where to fish for the fast growers.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hartalega

# 1st Jan of FY
FY ... #ADJ PRICE (RM) @@@ REV ... NP ... NPM

2009 0.0965
2010 0.4016
2011 0.4761
2012 0.6393
2013 0.8177
2014 1.3279
2015 1.45
2016 2.0961 @@@ 1.5B 258M 17.2%
2017 1.8649 @@@ 1.8B 283M 15.5%
2018 4.7320 @@@ 2.4B 439M 18.3%
2019 4.3896 @@@ 2.8B 456M 16.1%
2020 4.8855 @@@ 2.9B 435M 14.9%
2021 10.7033 @@@ 6.7B 2.9B 43.1%
2022 5.5205 @@@ 7.9B 3.2B 41%
2023 1.6056 @@@ 2.4B -218M -9.1%
2024 2.7325 @@@ 1.8B 12.7M 0.7%
2025(2Q) --- @@@ 1.2B 40.6M 3.3%

13.12.2024 3.88 Dividend 0.1141 DY 0.14%

Posted by Sslee > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Dec 13, 2024 9:49 PM | Report Abuse

The most popular valuation metrics are Price/Earnings, Price/Ebidta, Price/Sales, Price/Book value and EV/Ebitda.
(EV or Enterprise Value = Market cap + Debt)

Many different methods as listed above are used to arrive at the valuation for stocks.

However, remember that there is ever only one definition for valuation: the discounted cash flow.

All the above metrics are merely short forms or shortcuts for discounted cash flow. These metrics are widely used because they are easier to compute and understand, and can be compared across companies, sectors and markets. Critically, while these shortcut metrics are useful, they are insufficient and sometimes, can be misused to present a false picture

My take: Valuation by valuation metric is based on the past and recent past financial performance

Whereas DCF is the Present value of the investment of all the expected/projected cash flow over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate.

The only flaw on DCF is it did not take into account whether the company is currently in net aseets or net liabilities.

Hence I totally disagreed with CapA independant advisor DCF valuation on AAAGL and AAB which currently billions in net liabilities

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

HARTALEGA

Date Price (RM) adj
Aug 2018 7.1443 New all time high price
Mar 2019 4.5233
Dec 2019 5.2290
July 2020 20.3502 Highest price during the pandemic
Sep 2022 1.7007
Feb 2023 1.4487
13.12.24 3.88

From July 2020 to Sep 2022, the share price declined gradually over this period, with occasional non-sustainable spikes.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hartalega

Dividends distributed for
FY 2021 50.95 sen per share
FY 2022 57 sen per share

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Hartalega

FY ... REV ... NP ... NPM(%)
2016 1.5B 258M 17.2%
2017 1.8B 283M 15.5%
2018 2.4B 439M 18.3%
2019 2.8B 456M 16.1%
2020 2.9B 435M 14.9%
2021 6.7B 2.9B 43.1%
2022 7.9B 3.2B 41%
2023 2.4B -218M -9.1%
2024 1.8B 12.7M 0.7%
2025(2Q) 1.2B 40.6M 3.3%

The pandemic of 2020 to 2021 were 2 exceptional years for glove manufacturers.
Hartalega's revenue doubled from 2.9B (FY 2020) to 6.7B (FY 2021) and 7.9B (FY 2022).
Its Net Profit Margin expanded from 14.9% (FY 2020) to 43.1% (FY 2021) and 41% (FY 2022),
Its Net Profit increased from 435M (FY 2020) to 2.9B (FY 2021) and 3.2B (FY 2022).

Date Price (RM) adj
Aug 2018 7.1443 New all time high price
Mar 2019 4.5233
Dec 2019 5.2290
July 2020 20.3502 Highest price during the pandemic
Sep 2022 1.7007
Feb 2023 1.4487 Lowest price reached
13.12.24 3.88

Its per share price jumped from around RM5 at end of 2009 to its highest of RM 20.35 in July 2020.
From July 2020 to Sep 2022, the per share price declined gradually and continuously, with occasional non-sustainable spikes.
For FY 2021 and FY 2022, it distributed total dividends of RM 1.08 sen per share.


Did you own Hartalega, before, during and after the pandemic?
Did you make or lose money in this counter to-date?
What lessons can be learned from this period?
Were there more winners or losers coming out of this Feb 2023 when Hartalega was at its lowest price of RM 1.4487?
Do you have a strategy when faced with something that rhyme like this period in the future?

"History does not repeat exactly, but it rhymes."