China’s annual exports drop for the first time in seven years
BEIJING — China’s annual exports fell for the first time in seven years in 2023, even as shipments in December beat expectations, customs data showed Friday.
"In an economic downtrend, it's getting harder and harder for REITs to make money," said Xia Chun, chief economist at Forthright Holdings Co.
Although REITs derive yields from relatively stable fee or rental incomes generated by underlying assets such as office towers or warehouses, Xia said REITs trade more like stocks than bonds, with big ups and downs, particularly in China.
After some initial excitement after its 2020 launch, China's REIT market has witnessed an eye-watering bubble burst. The REITs index has nearly halved from its early 2022 peak.
Most of China's 29 listed REITs are backed by infrastructure assets such as industrial parks, tollways and sewage treatment plants. Other REITs backed by shopping malls and supermarkets will be launched this month.
BIGGEST CASUALTIES
In the latest bout of relentless selling, REITs backed by logistics properties were among the biggest casualties.
The Harvest Jingdong Warehousing and Logistics REIT has tumbled roughly 30 per cent this year, taking a hit after its Jan. 4 disclosure that leasing fees at an underlying warehousing project in central Wuhan city had been cut by 13 per cent in the new year.
China’s economy had a bad 2023 and the outlook isn’t much better.
Exports for the year as a whole fell for the first time since 2016 as global demand for Chinese-made goods slowed, according to customs data released on Friday. Officials said the slump will be difficult to shake off in 2024.
Good or bad is an opinion. Facts say otherwise. Gdp of 5% is still one of the highest and of course looking at the future, China will dominate in many sectors
CICC GLP Warehousing Logistics also plunged to record lows on fears it would be similarly affected.
Investors also dumped REITs backed by industrial parks amid signs vacancy rates are soaring. Vacancy at retail properties climbed to 9.1 per cent at the end of September, from less than 6.0 per cent in 2019, according to CBRE, showing the lingering impact on consumption from the COVID pandemic.
The Hua An Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT has plunged 24 per cent this year. Only 61 per cent of space at an office building in Shanghai was rented out at the end of 2023, down from 94 per cent six months earlier, its asset manager disclosed, citing the loss of a key tenant.
Another REIT, CCB Principal Zhongguangcun Industrial Park , whose income is composed of office rents from tech start-ups in Beijing, has said government crackdowns on the internet sector and economic hardship had raised vacancy rates.
The meltdown has triggered a slew of stabilisation measures by REIT managers, including trading suspensions, increased transparency, and investments by underlying properties' biggest owners.
That wasn’t the only gloomy data China released on Friday. The world’s second largest economy is struggling to stem deflationary pressures. Consumer price inflation in 2023 was the weakest it has been in 14 years.
The consumer price index for December improved slightly from November, but was down 0.3% on the same month in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. For 2023 as a whole, prices were up by just 0.2% over 2022, the weakest reading since 2009, when CPI fell by 0.7% as a global recession hit.
China got over capacity in every thing. That's good. That means no chance for inflation to take hold, that means China remain very fierce competition, cut throat competition...and keeps world inflation down.
Fu Lei, senior executive at Tebon Asset Management, said China's REIT market is dominated by risk-averse institutional investors.
That means volatility "triggers a rush for the exit ... which in turn magnifies mood swings and invites more volatility", he told an online roadshow on Wednesday.
To break through middle income trap, a country needs own brands, own strengths, independence from interference, high value added industries..China can surely do it, Malaysia can do or not?
The turmoil in China's real estate market is shaking China's economy and the world economy, which has come to rely on China as a reliable engine of growth. Large developers are struggling, facing huge losses, struggling with mountains of debt and unable to repay their loans. The long-running construction boom that drove China's economic growth has come to a halt, threatening jobs and savings for millions of households. China's stock market plunged and the renminbi depreciated as officials moved to spur economic growth.
For decades, China's economy has relied on a booming real estate sector fueled by population growth. The real estate market creates jobs, while China's growing middle class invests their wealth here. Local governments also rely on land sales for revenue. But China's population is no longer growing as it once was, and the strict Covid restrictions that have been in place for years have transformed Chinese consumers. The industry's high-risk practices, coupled with the government's crackdown on them, have led to huge debts for property developers, with new homes in excess of demand. Housing prices have plummeted as the government tries to shift from a state-led investment and export-driven economy to one dominated by domestic consumer spending, eroding Chinese households' savings and confidence.
I will not judge China by house prices but by it's EV, it's technology progress, it's self reliance, AI, robotics, automation, and Xi jinping make in China 2025 program
China's Zhongzhi Group officially exploded in November last year, admitting that it was insolvent of more than 220 billion yuan (about NT$960 billion), and then filed for bankruptcy liquidation on the grounds of obvious lack of solvency, which was accepted by the Beijing court today.
The WeChat public account of Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People's Court reported on the evening of the 5th that the debtor Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. applied to the court for bankruptcy liquidation on the grounds that it "cannot pay off its due debts, its assets are insufficient to pay off all its debts, and it obviously lacks solvency".
According to the report, the Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People's Court found that the application met the bankruptcy reasons stipulated in Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the People's Republic of China, so it ruled to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. on January 5, 2024.
In August last year, Zhongrong International Trust, which belongs to the "China Plant System", was shocked to report that 350 billion yuan of trust products had been suspended due to the impact of investment in real estate; A number of listed companies have successively announced that the products of Zhongrong Trust have not received the principal and investment income within the time limit, triggering market panic that China's version of the "Lehman Storm" is coming.
On the evening of November 22, 2023, Zhongzhi Group broke the silence and issued a letter of apology to investors, frankly admitting that the debt scale is huge, with a total asset account of about 200 billion yuan, but the scale of debt principal and interest is about 420 billion to 460 billion yuan, which has been seriously insolvent and there is a significant risk of continuing operations. This also means that the "Chinese planting system" is unable to repay at least 220 billion yuan.
Three days after the official explosion of the Zhongzhi Group, the Chaoyang Branch of the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau reported that it had recently filed a case for investigation of the suspected illegal crimes of the wealthy company owned by the "Zhongzhi Department" in accordance with the law, and took criminal coercive measures against Xie Moumou and other suspects.
Shadow bank underground bank. What it means is it's something cannot see light. Something cannot see light go bankrupt...is that surprising? It's call moral hazards. Investors must to be careful with money
After China's largest private asset management company, Zhongzhi Group, exploded due to insolvency, investors may lose more than three-quarters, or even recover only 13% of the principal.
Bloomberg reported on Monday (November 27) that Ying Yue, a lawyer at Shanghai Lianggao Law Firm, said that Zhongzhi's debts were as high as 460 billion yuan (about 64.9 billion U.S. dollars), and only about 100 billion yuan could be recovered after liquidation. Moreover, the court proceedings related to Zhongzhi are expected to be protracted.
Sun Jianbo, founder of Huaxin Capital, a Beijing-based asset management firm, also told Bloomberg that non-performing assets are usually sold after a 70% discount. Bloomberg concluded through calculations that this means that ZZ investors can only recover about 13% of the principal.
Shadow bank underground bank lol...it's always greed and higher returns that attract money to shadow banks
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