What else is going on? Over the past year, Beijing has rolled out only piecemeal policies to drive economic recovery. But that is not enough, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
“Conventional macro policy easing has so far fallen short of investor expectation,” they said. “A shift in the piecemeal easing playbook to a more aggressive, big-bang approach may be needed to overturn the negative narrative in the market.”
In particular, an “effective government backstop” to prop-up failing property developers and to stimulate demand for housing is needed to resolve the current real estate crisis, which is at the heart of many of China’s economic problems, they added.
Chinese stocks have suffered heavy losses over the past year The value of China's benchmark CSI 300 index has fallen 23% over the past 12 months, and notched its worst start to a year since 2016 after Beijing dashed investors' hopes that it might do more to support the country's struggling economy.
Investors are also concerned about existential questions bedeviling China’s future.
“China’s commitment to reform has been called into question,” they said, adding that the concerns were prompted by Beijing’s crackdown on Big Tech, its emphasis on national security, and the increasing dominance of the state sector in key industries. “These policy uncertainties have discouraged the investment appetite.”
In addition, US-China tensions have forced US investors to “meaningfully” reduce their exposures to and ownership in Chinese equities, the analysts said.
What is Beijing doing about the crash? Premier Li, who chaired a cabinet meeting Monday, has vowed to take action to boost the stock market and improve liquidity, according to a read-out published by Xinhua. It didn’t elaborate on what the measures will be.
But on the same day, major state-owned banks moved to support the Chinese yuan, in order to prevent the currency from falling too fast as Chinese shares plunged, according to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources.
A Tuesday Bloomberg report said Chinese authorities are considering intervening more directly by mobilizing some 2 trillion yuan ($282 billion) as part of a stock market stabilization fund, mainly by using the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises.
The fund would buy mainland China-listed shares through the Hong Kong stock exchange. The authorities have also earmarked at least 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) of local funds to invest in mainland Chinese shares, Bloomberg reported.
“If the rumour proves to be true, the asset purchase program could generate a significant size of [yuan] purchase flow,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist for Mizuho Bank.
He also believes the PBOC’s decided not to cut interest rates to prevent the yuan from depreciating further.
The Bloomberg report was enough to arrest further declines on Tuesday, with Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index closing 2.6% higher and the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%.
How are people reacting? The stock market rout has triggered public anger on Chinese social media, where many people have called on regulators to take effective measures to stem the decline.
More than 220 million individuals are invested in China’s stock markets, according to official figures, and those people account for 99% of the total investor base.
Topics related to the “market plunge” and “China’s stock market rescue” were trending on Weibo on Tuesday.
Even prominent influencers who normally spout the official line urged Beijing to take immediate action to rescue small investors.
“I’m sad about today’s stock market performance,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief for state newspaper Global Times, posted on Weibo on Monday.
“The impact of the stock market’s continuous decline has gone beyond the capital market, and has a negative impact on confidence in the entire economy and comprehensive social confidence. I personally believe that this is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed to prevent financial risks and boost social confidence.“
Hu said he had suffered a total loss of more than 70,000 yuan ($9,857) since he started investing in the stock market last June.
Lost money in stock market? Better keep quiet. U tell people u lost money in stock market, people will say why u So st.upid lost money in stock market.
Xi and CCP plans is for China to be number one in all aspects by 2050 , a beautiful country, a science and technology country, a compassionate country, commom prosperity, China rejuvenation, China as the center of the world as in Tang Dynasty, China as the most admired country and most admired civilisation. And very doable and according to plans
Real economy Vs virtual economy In virtual economy, in lies and propaganda, in legalised gambling, in hedge funds and Soros, America advantage. In real economy China advantage
fake? there is nothing fake about Shanghai port alone handling twice the containers in all the ports in America and doing all with 5 G and robots and advanced technology without humans.
70 years already, western critics always says they don't believe China data.......................u don't need to believe any thing, nobody can force u to believe any thing.
every year for the last 70 years, western media full of don't believe China data............ didn't make any difference what they believe or don't believe.
How reliable is China's GDP data? 2024 in focus after debatable 2023
NEW YORK -- Doubts have swirled around China's official 2023 economic growth figures published this week, as some analysts struggle to reconcile government data with their own assessments.
China's gross domestic product grew 5.2% last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Wednesday, in line with Beijing's target of "around 5%." The figure represents an improvement from 3% in 2022, when the country was restrained by strict zero-COVID policies.
Lifting those restrictions helped spark a rebound in consumption as China's consumers returned to shops, restaurants and hotels. But the country's ongoing property crisis -- and a decline in exports, the first in seven years -- hampered growth.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang gave a sneak peek at the 2023 figure during his speech at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, saying China had met its target without "massive stimulus."
Questions over the official 5.2% figure stem largely from whether the consumption boom was enough to offset the drags on China's economy.
"I think the skepticism inside China and outside China about the official data seems widespread and justified," said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Stronger than expected growth numbers help create a sense of economic momentum, which encourages private investment and household consumption, Kennedy said, but "the business community and investors in China are not convinced China has turned the corner."
Before COVID, the business community gave the government the benefit of the doubt on this data partly because of the obvious and substantial growth occurring year after year, Kennedy said.
"That ambiguity is now typically interpreted in the other direction," he said.
Shares fell in Shanghai and Hong Kong following the official data release on Wednesday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed Friday down 5.8% on the week.
Rhodium Group, a research firm with a focus on China, was particularly dubious of the official growth number, calling it "irreconcilable with evidence of general malaise and reactive policymaking that has piled up all year long." Rhodium estimated the actual growth figure as closer to 1.5%.
Doubts about the reliability of China's official economic data are not new. Capital Economics' China Activity Proxy gauge -- which attempts to track the economy by other components, including freight and passenger traffic, car sales and service sector electricity usage -- suggests actual growth has undershot Beijing's announcements since the start of 2022. But not all observers share Rhodium's low assessment.
A group of 16 economists from within and outside of China surveyed by Chinese financial news provider Caixin estimated an average of 5.3% growth for China's 2023 GDP, in line with Beijing's number. The International Monetary Fund projected China to grow at 5% in its most recent world economic outlook from October.
"I tend to think it's relatively accurate," said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. "There's a wealth of data released [this week], and in my view, it all hangs together," he said, arguing that a substantial leap in disposable household income helps explain the spike in consumption.
That could be a positive sign for 2024, as China's economy is expected to slow without the rebound seen in 2023 from removing COVID restrictions. The IMF forecasts the economy to grow at 4.2%.
Alongside Rhodium's weaker estimation for 2023, the firm's forecast for 2024 sits at 3%-3.5% as part of a broader structural slowdown China's economy has entered following years of double-digit growth.
"We think the economy [in 2024] will look better than last year, but nothing like the pre-COVID growth rates that an improvement on China's official figures would imply," the firm said, with the caveat that greater than expected government stimulus could bring an unforeseen boost.
Assessing the state of an economy without using government data is done through various ways, including tracking indirect signs such as air pollution or nighttime luminosity in cities.
One popular method grouping electricity usage, rail cargo and bank loans came to be known as the "Li Keqiang index," named for the metric preferred by the late premier as a gauge of the country's growth.
But changes to the Chinese economy, including a shift toward the services sector, have made traditional real-world indicators less reliable.
"It's very difficult to really get a sense of the entire economy independently. It's too large," CSIS's Kennedy said, adding that "you just need to use a lot of different sources of data, look at high-frequency data and draw your own conclusions."
Beijing also has become less transparent about what data it releases, as when it decided to stop publishing youth unemployment data last year when the figure reached a record 21%. This week, that information was released again for the first time since last summer, using a new methodology that calculated the rate to be 15%.
Regardless of the accuracy of official data, the cost of the uncertainty and Beijing's perceived lack of transparency falls mostly on China itself.
"Policymakers can't resolve economic problems because doing so would publicly acknowledge that such problems exist. It also disincentivizes investment from global businesses," Rhodium said in its research note.
Li Qiang says China’s economy grew an ‘estimated’ 5.2% in 2023 Premier hails ‘steady’ economic progress in Davos speech but calls on world to address ‘trust deficit’ among nations
China’s economy grew an “estimated” 5.2 per cent last year, beating the official target, the country’s number two leader Premier Li Qiang said in Davos as he sought to allay concerns over its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
In a speech at the World Economic Forum, Li also urged the world to address what he described as a “trust deficit” among nations and in a veiled dig at the US, said “multilateralism” did not mean that only a few countries could set the rules.
Li said China’s growth rate last year — a rise from the figure of 3 per cent in 2022 when the country was hit by widespread Covid lockdowns — was achieved without resorting to “massive stimulus” and the economy was making “steady progress”.
“We did not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks, rather we focused on strengthening the internal drivers,” he said. “Just as a healthy person often has a strong immune system, the Chinese economy can handle ups and downs in its performance. The overall trend of long-term growth will not change.”
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who spoke after Li, responded: “We want to tell our Chinese friends, we do not want to decouple but we need to de-risk our supply chains in some ways.”
Von der Leyen said China was preparing export controls on three metals used in semiconductor production — germanium, gallium and graphite — and that this “was not trust-building”.
“So we are in intense discussions on that point”, she said. “We have to be very frank and very open . . . it is always better to address problems so that we can solve them.”
China Evergrande ordered to liquidate, owing $300 billion
HONG KONG (Reuters) - A Hong Kong court on Monday ordered the liquidation of property giant China Evergrande (HK:3333) Group, a move likely to send ripples through China's crumbling financial markets as policymakers scramble to contain a deepening crisis.
The decision to liquidate the world's most indebted developer with more than $300 billion of total liabilities was made by Hong Kong Justice Linda Chan, who noted Evergrande had been unable to offer a concrete restructuring plan despite months of delays.
"It is time for the court to say enough is enough," she said.
Chan will deliver her reasons for granting the liquidation at 2:30 pm (0630 GMT). It is expected a provisional liquidator will be appointed to oversee Evergrande ahead of a permanent appointment.
Evergrande, which has $240 billion of assets, sent a struggling property sector into a tailspin when it defaulted on its debt in 2021 and the liquidation ruling will likely further jolt already fragile Chinese capital and property markets.
Beijing is grappling with an underperforming economy, its worst property market in nine years and a stock market wallowing near five-year lows, so any fresh hit to markets could further undermine policymakers' efforts to rejuvenate growth.
"Evergrande's liquidation is a sign that China is willing to go to extreme ends to quell the property bubble," said Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research managing director.
"This is good for the economy in the long term but very difficult in the short term."
Evergrande's shares were trading down as much as 20% before the hearing. Trading was halted in China Evergrande and its listed subsidiaries China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group and Evergrande Property Services after the verdict.
Evergrande applied for another adjournment on Monday as its lawyer said it had made "some progress" on the restructuring proposal. In the latest offer, the developer proposed creditors swap their debts into all the shares the company holds in its two Hong Kong units, compared to stakes of about 30% in the subsidiaries ahead of the last hearing in December.
The liquidation process could be complicated, with potential political considerations, given the many authorities involved.
But it is expected to have little impact on the company's operations including home construction projects in the near term, as it could take months or years for the offshore liquidator appointed by the creditors to take control of subsidiaries across mainland China - a different jurisdiction from Hong Kong.
Ahead of the Evergrande decision, China's Supreme Court and Hong Kong's Department of Justice said they signed an arrangement on the reciprocal recognition and enforcement of judgements in civil and commercial cases effective immediately in both places.
Evergrande had been working on a $23 billion debt revamp plan with a group of creditors known as the ad hoc bondholder group for almost two years. Its original plan was scuppered in late September when Evergrande said its billionaire founder Hui Ka Yan was under investigation for suspected crimes.
The liquidation petition was first filed in June 2022 by Top Shine, an investor in Evergrande unit Fangchebao which said the developer had failed to honour an agreement to repurchase shares it had bought in the subsidiary.
The proceedings had been adjourned multiple times and Justice Chan had said previously the December hearing would be the last before a decision was made whether to liquidate Evergrande in the absence of a "concrete" restructuring plan.
Before Monday, at least three Chinese developers have been ordered by a Hong Kong court to liquidate since the current debt crisis unfolded in mid-2021.
China is transitioning from property, low end manufacturing, platform economy to high end manufacturing, Xi Jinping Make in China 2025, dual circulation, common prosperity, China as center of the world, China to be admired. Blue skies, clean water
Worsening crisis at Evergrande, world's most indebted developer
(Reuters) - A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande (HK:3333) Group on Monday.
Evergrande is the world's most indebted real estate developer and has been at the centre of an unprecedented liquidity crisis in China's property sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the world's second-largest economy.
Once China's top-selling developer, Evergrande's financial crisis became public in 2021 and since then it and a string of its peers have defaulted on their offshore debt obligations amid slowing home sales and fewer new avenues for fundraising, triggering fears of wider contagion that could spread to the country's banks.
China Evergrande Group, one of the world’s most indebted property developers, was ordered to wind up by a Hong Kong court that after it failed to reach a consensus with creditors to put forward a “concrete restructuring proposal” following years of discussions, paving the way for the biggest-ever liquidation of a Chinese property developer.
The decision triggered an implosion in the shares and bonds of the company and its associates. The rest of the sector saw buying, which analysts say reflected optimism that the court’s order would remove the most problematic entity in the sector, allowing authorities to introduce easing measures for the remaining players.
Justice Linda Chan appointed Eddie Middleton and Tiffany Wong Wing-sze, managing directors of the consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal, as provisional liquidators for the developer.he winding-up order to the Guangzhou-based developer, however, still faces cross-jurisdictional challenges as most of the company’s assets are located in mainland China
Here’s a look at the market’s reaction after the liquidation, and its implications for the Chinese property sector.
How did the market react to Evergrande’s winding up order?
Trading in the shares of Evergrande and its associated companies was halted soon after the judgment, but by then these stocks had already fallen. Evergrande tumbled 21 per cent on the day to 16.3 cents. Shares in its unit Evergrande New Energy Vehicle slumped 18 per cent to 22.9 cents, while its property management arm Evergrande Property Services lost 2.5 per cent to 39 cents.
Shares of other indebted developers such as Country Garden Holdings and Longfor rose amid optimism that Evergrande’s collapse would remove the industry’s biggest headache and Chinese authorities are now prepared to introduce easing measures in the property sector.In the bond market, embattled Evergrande peers also performed well or remained stable in sharp contrast to the collapse in the developer’s bonds. “It’s quite interesting that bonds of high yield developers including Dalian Wanda, Greenland, and China Southern City, were actually trading up on Monday morning,” said Zerlina Zeng, senior director at CreditSights. “Even in the afternoon, the tone was good.”
What do analysts foresee after the sector’s biggest liquidation, in the context of China property’s recent performance?
The biggest-ever liquidation order on a Hong Kong-listed company came at a time when markets were expecting a stimulus package from Chinese authorities to calm sluggish stocks and stabilise home sales performance.
HONG KONG, Jan 16 (Reuters) - China's largest private property developer, Country Garden, <2007.HK> expects the property market will remain weak in 2024 and the company could face more, "severe" challenges, its top management said. Country Garden, which defaulted on its $11 billion worth of offshore bonds in October and extended repayments on its onshore notes last year, is among a long list of developers facing a cash crunch since being hit by a debt crisis in mid-2021.
China's ageing population threatens switch to new economic growth model
HONG KONG, Jan 18 (Reuters) - China's ageing population threatens key Beijing policy goals for the coming decade of boosting domestic consumption and reining in ballooning debt, posing a severe challenge to the economy's long-term growth prospects. A record low birth rate in 2023 and a wave of COVID-19 deaths resulted in a second consecutive year of population decline, accelerating concerns about China's demographic downturn. Large groups of the 1.4 billion people living in the world's second-largest economy will exit the labour pool and age past a prime period of their lives for consumption, exacerbating structural imbalances that policymakers have vowed to address.
Household consumption's share of economic output in China is already one of the lowest in the world, while many provincial governments - responsible for pensions and elderly care - are deep in debt as a result of decades of credit-fuelled investment-driven growth. "China's age structure change will slow down economic growth," said Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Victoria University in Melbourne.
In the next 10 years, about 300 million people currently aged 50 to 60 - China's largest demographic group, equivalent to almost the entire U.S. population - are set to leave the workforce at a time when pension budgets are already stretched. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences sees the pension system running out of money by 2035, with about a third of the country's provincial-level jurisdictions running pension budget deficits, according to finance ministry data.
LOW RETIREMENT AGE China, which accepts few and only highly-skilled foreign workers, has one of the world's lowest retirement ages, at 60 for men, 55 for white-collar women and 50 for women who work in factories. A record 28 million people are scheduled to retire this year. Employees at state-owned companies are typically mandated to retire when of age, while private employers rarely keep workers longer, whereas in some Western countries the retirement age is more flexible. Unemployed Li Zhulin, 50, from the northwestern Shaanxi province frets about relying solely on her husband's pension of about 5,000 to 7,000 yuan ($697 to $975) per month when he retires in 2027 after a career at a state-owned company. Li has been cutting back on expenses and scouring the internet for financial planning tips to try to be "less of a burden" for her only daughter. "In addition to supporting her own family if she marries, she would also take care of four elderly people," Li said, including the husband's parents. "I can't imagine how difficult that would be." Chinese society has traditionally expected children to support their parents financially as they age and often by living together to care for them. But as in many Western countries, rapid urbanisation has shifted young people to bigger cities and away from their parents, prompting a rising number of seniors to rely on self care or government payments.
China aim for 2050 is not country with most people but to be most admired country in the world. And center of the world just like Tang Dynasty. They will succeed.
BEIJING: China's manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month in January, an official factory survey showed on Wednesday, suggesting the sprawling sector and the broader economy were struggling to regain momentum at the start of 2024.
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, driven by a rise in output but still below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. It was in line with a median forecast of 49.2 in a Reuters poll.
The data provides the first official snapshot of how the world's No.2 economy has started off the new year after a shakier-than-expected post-COVID recovery.
Xi jinping make in China 2025 program is on target. Biden can stop China meh? Only thing Congress can do is fund anti China propaganda up to USD 750 million a year.
Decoupling? De risking? Security risk? De globalisation? The real term is no more free trade when the bullies cannot compete 😄. Teach the global south and teach in universities the marvels of free trade but only applies in trade the bullies have an advantage...cannot compete with China no more free trade
SYDNEY/LONDON (Reuters) -China shares fell to new five-year lows on Friday and posted their worst weekly drop in five years, while bumper earnings at Amazon and Meta helped buoy world stocks ahead of key U.S. jobs data later in the day.
The Shanghai Composite closed 1.5% lower with investors disappointed by cautious and piecemeal government stimulus measures to shore up the shaky economy.
For the week, the index sank 6.2%, its largest such loss since October 2018. The blue-chip CSI300 hit a five-year low, while shares in drug research and development group WuXi AppTec slid 20% in Hong Kong after its mention in a U.S. bill aimed at restricting access to Americans' genetic data revived geopolitical concerns.
"The tension between the U.S. and China seems not dissipating," said Saxo's chief China strategist, Redmond Wong.
Investors are also growing impatient at the lack of big-ticket stimulus to shore up demand and confidence, Wong said.
Still, China pain and renewed U.S. regional bank worries, failed to put a significant dent in world stock markets with investors taking comfort from upbeat earnings.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by IDQWE001 > 2023-11-29 09:45 | Report Abuse
HSI 17,359.08 VS TSEC 17,401.38