China’s already beleaguered economy is facing yet another problem. Foreign firms, some long-established in China, are rethinking plans to modernize and expand and have begun to send their profits home or elsewhere in Asia and even further afield. The trend has diverse causes — some immediate, some more fundamental – and has been developing for some time. Whatever its cause, however, it has made China’s economic recovery looks even more problematic.
The outflow has gained momentum for more than a year now. According to Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, foreign companies pulled a total of $160 billion of earnings out of country during the 18 months through September, the most recent month for which data are available. In just the summer quarter alone, withdrawals overwhelmed foreign investment inflows so that for the first time in a very long time, China suffered a net outflow of foreign-based funds, to the tune of $11.8 billion. There can be little doubt that these significant funds flows have contributed to the about 5% decline China’s yuan has suffered relative to the U.S. dollar so far this year.
Chinese stocks slide as Q4 GDP misses expectations China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell between 0.7% to 1%, as the country’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew slightly less than expected, at 5.2%.
Losses in mainland stocks dragged Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 3%, as did weakness in heavyweight technology shares.
Annual GDP growth came in at 5.2%, beating Beijing’s 5% target for 2023. But a bulk of this growth was driven by a lower base for comparison from 2022.
Market never trust CCP data. That's why smart money is smarter than you.
December data continues to underwhelm Readings for December showed that economic weakness was likely to extend into early-2024, as the economy remained in deflation, while factory activity failed to recover.
Other data on Wednesday showed industrial production grew 6.8% year-on-year in December, beating estimates of 6.6%, while retail sales grew 7.4%, missing estimates of 8%. While both figures appeared to show strong growth, they also benefited from a lower base of comparison.
Capital spending also slowed substantially during the year, with fixed asset investment growing 3% in December- remaining close to its slowest pace of growth in nearly three years.
China’s unemployment rate unexpectedly grew to 5.1% in December from 5.0% in the prior month.
China transition is a higher technology level, more self reliance and higher value added will succeed. As for properties, I have seen how fast and how cheap can build 20 storey buildings. Value of old buildings will come down . That is to be expected.
China is well and truly on the way to be a very beautiful place.
as for inflation, why would any one want high inflation? China is a very competitive place and surplus over capacity in every thing. This will keep inflation down and good for the poor.
China’s economy grew slightly less than expected in the fourth quarter amid consistent pressure from weak spending and a property market decline, although growth for 2023 managed to just edge past government targets.
Gross domestic product grew 5.2% year-on-year in the three months to December 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. The reading was weaker than expectations for growth of 5.3%, but picked up from the 4.9% seen in the prior quarter.
The problem not difference 0.1% growth, the real problem was the market never trust CCP GDP figure.🤣🤣
GDP grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, as expected, but slowed from the prior quarter’s reading of 1.3%.
This brought the overall GDP for 2023 to 5.2%, slightly above Beijing’s 5% forecast. While growth picked up sharply from the dismal 3% seen in 2022, the stronger figure was also driven by a lower base for comparison, given that country was still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic until early-2023.
Wednesday’s figures indicated that the world’s second-largest economy was still struggling to stage a more pronounced recovery from three years of lockdowns, as a post-COVID rebound largely failed to materialize in 2023.
Slowing consumer spending, a property market meltdown and limited government support were the key headwinds faced by the Chinese economy through 2023. While Beijing consistently rolled out liquidity measures to boost spending, a lack of targeted, fiscal measures inspired little confidence.
The government had in October outlined a massive 1 trillion yuan bond issuance to spur infrastructure spending. But any more debt issuances are expected to be limited, given that the country is also grappling with overheated debt levels.
The position of finance in China is for the healthy development of the real economy. China needs to become a "manufacturing superpower", not a "financial superpower". Xi makes very clear about this.
Under this concept, the positioning of the stock market in China is different from its positioning in the United States. The first priority for the Chinese stock market is to meet the financing needs of Chinese enterprises, especially in the high-tech industry, rather than continuously rising to meet the profit needs of investors.
Of course, this priority is debatable, especially as it has caused dissatisfaction among many ordinary investors, but so far, this is the reality of the Chinese stock market and also the key reason why the Chinese stock market has been always a different story from the Chinese economy in past 30 years.
2000 years already China not short of governing philosophy and governing principles And geniuses but China fall when it is behind in science and technology . Xi jinping has the right focus namely fighting corruption and upgrading science and technology
China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 sank 0.8% on Thursday and was at its weakest level in nearly five years, while the Shanghai Composite slid 1.3% to a near four-year low. Losses in mainland stocks kept Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index trading at its worst level since late-2022.
Thursday’s losses marked a worsening rout in Chinese markets after data in the prior session showed Asia’s largest economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter.
lets differentiate between real economy and gambling economy. Of course there is negative feed back loops which are destructive. No doubt western media gangs up on China but what can China do?
China stocks extended the decline on Thursday, down to their lowest level in nearly five years, as China's patchy economic recovery and the prospect of limited stimulus kept investors away from riskier assets.
China's blue-chip CSI300 Index dropped 0.6%, its lowest level since early 2019, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.6% by midday. Hong Kong shares stabilised from Wednesday's sell-off.
"Big rate cuts or quantitative easing were unlikely and authorities should rely more on fiscal policy to boost the economy," UBS chief China economist Tao Wang said in an investor call on Thursday.
Investors have been expecting further policy easing to help revive the economy, but China's central bank had surprised some market participants by holding a key policy rate steady on Monday.
SINGAPORE: Asian shares struggled to make headway on Thursday, weighed down by a murky economic outlook in China and expectations the global rate easing cycle may not come as early as some had initially thought.
Chinese stocks plumbed multi-year lows as the dour mood over China's shaky economic recovery extended into a second day, while an escalation of geopolitical tensions also kept markets on edge.
Shares of state-owned banks and energy giants were not immune to the broad decline, with Bank of China and PetroChina down 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, two of the few bright spots in the market were new energy and artificial intelligence shares, up 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively.
In Hong Kong, the market seems to be recovering from Wednesday's turmoil, with Hang Seng Index up 0.6%.
Technology shares added 0.5%, with Meituan and Alibaba up 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
Foreign capital recorded net selling of 519 million yuan ($72.13 million) via northbound trading link by the lunch break, after logging the largest net sell in more than a year on Wednesday.
Several ETFs linked to China's main indexes including E Fund CSI300 Index ETF saw trading volume and turnover surge for the past two days.
"The national team tried to buy ETFs tracking CSI300, where turnover notably spiked, but the market-wide selloff pressure persists," UBS analysts said in a note ahead of the market open on Thursday.
TAIPEI: Taipei-listed shares of Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC soared on Friday after the company gave a bullish outlook for the year on the back of the boom in artificial intelligence (AI), cheering tech stocks at home and abroad.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple Inc and Nvidia supplier, on Thursday projected more than 20% growth in 2024 revenue on booming demand for high-end chips used in AI.
TSMC's shares rose as much as 6% on Friday in Taipei, after its' U.S. listed stocks closed up almost 10% overnight, with the S&P 500 approaching record highs as AI optimism drove gains in Nvidia and other chipmakers.
What investors are saying about China's market meltdown
(Reuters) -Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have slumped to multi-year lows this week as confidence in the world's second-biggest economy has evaporated and foreign money has fled, while data showed sputtering growth and deepening real estate malaise.
Here is what investors and market strategists have said about the selloff:
"Investors looking out into 2024 and anyone who would hope that the Chinese government would come riding to the rescue is re-evaluating that right now.
"Until there is a bigger crisis, the Chinese government may just continue to kind of throw cups of water on the fire instead of something big that they probably need to do.
"There is a degree of capitulation ... at this stage, markets are not being driven necessarily by spreadsheets and calculations, but more on emotion and maybe technical issues."
I just think there is a big divorce between real economy and virtual economy ie stock market. U think this is first time meh? It happens all the time every where. Some more this time, it is clouded by geo politics.
Taiwan exports to USA and Europe down in 2023 far more than China. Even Singapore exports to USA and Europe also down. That is the real international economy
China no inflation because it's a very competitive place with over capacity in every thing. People say this is Japan 2.0 but it is not. America inflation is caused by price gorging because too many monopoliese
I just think there is a big divorce between real economy and virtual economy ie stock market. U think this is first time meh? It happens all the time every where. Some more this time, it is clouded by geo politics.
stock market down every body think of the worse. stock market up, everybody think of the best.
dog wagging the tail or tail wagging the dog?
in geo politics terms, of course western mainstream media wants u to believe China die already sure collapse. or at least influence it to collapse.
"Our argument is that at the financial work conference, which happened last week, policymakers came away with a renewed focus on financial sector regulation and the ongoing anti-corruption campaign, refocusing it towards the financial sector.
"From a Chinese investor's perspective, the reason that this matters is twofold: First of all, it's another major sector that's going to be inspected with a heavy-handed regulatory approach. And the second issue is that you need the financial sector when the private sector is de-leveraging. You need banks to want to lend ... more so than any other time.
"As a Chinese investor you (also) sit there and you're like, wait a minute, if (the central bank is) not willing to cut 25 basis points we're really far from any sort of a bazooka ... they're not even willing to fire a water pistol."
Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs said on Monday export orders plunged 16% in December from a year earlier. Orders from the US were down 21.6% while those from Europe fell 39.4%. Orders from China, the second biggest source of orders, fell just 3.5%
PIERRE HOEBRECHTS, HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, EAST EAGLE ASSET MANAGEMENT:
"We have been conservatively positioned since last March on the premise that the Chinese household would be reluctant to invest ... in light of their high savings rate and the real estate market adjustment.
"As fundamental news has not been strong enough and the market is finally waking up to the fact that the government will manage the economy for the long term as stated by Premier Li Qiang at Davos and not focus on short-term market movements, investors' interest has disappeared."
"We sold China in October. We had hoped that there was going to be more cyclical stimulus coming through. When it became clear that wasn't going to happen, the conclusion was that China was ready to embark on the restructuring of its property sector which meant that it would be kind of a fairly prolonged process.
"Over the last 30 years, the story of China has been China is growing fast, China is becoming the manufacturing centre of the world - so you should just own China because the economy is doing very well. Now, the story of China is there are some sectors that are going to have a very hard time. So you need to be more selective in terms of the companies that you buy."
Chinese stocks have lost $6 trillion in 3 years. Here’s what you need to know
Hong Kong CNN — Chinese shares haven’t just had a bad start to 2024. It’s been rough going since February 2021, when they hit their most recent peak.
Over the past three years, about $6 trillion — equivalent to roughly twice Britain’s annual economic output — has been wiped off the value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks.
The Hang Seng index has crashed 10% so far this year alone, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indexes are down 7% and 10% respectively.
The astonishing losses, reminiscent of the last Chinese stock market crash of 2015-2016, highlight a crisis of confidence among investors concerned about the country’s future.
“The past three years were no doubt a challenging and frustrating period for investors and market participants in Chinese equities,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research note Tuesday. “China … [is] currently trading at suppressed valuations and decade-low allocations across [investment] fund mandates.”
The world’s second largest economy is plagued by a myriad of problems. They include a record downturn in real estate, deflation, debt, a falling birthrate and shrinking work force, as well as a shift towards ideology-driven policies that has rattled the private sector and scared away foreign firms.
The stock meltdown has made Chinese markets the world’s worst performers so far this year. All this is playing out against the backdrop of a global stock market rally, led by Wall Street’s record-setting run, and by Japan in Asia.
There are signs the Chinese government is beginning to worry. Reuters reported this week that Beijing asked banks to sell dollars to prop up the yuan, and Bloomberg said Tuesday that the government was preparing to intervene directly to support stocks.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday ordered officials to take “forceful and effective measures” to stabilize the markets. But can investors’ confidence be restored?
What’s driving the meltdown? In short, investors are worried about the lack of effective policies from Beijing to spark a sustainable economic recovery.
China’s economy grew 5.2% in 2023. That was its slowest pace of expansion since 1990, with the exception of the three pandemic years through 2022. International economists widely expect the country’s growth to slow further this year to around 4.5% and drop below 4% in the medium term.
While that may seem reasonable for a major economy, it is far below China’s double-digit growth of the past decades. The country may be staring at decades of stagnation to come, analysts have said, as the slowdown is structural in nature and won’t be easily reversed.
“There has been increasing confusion over the Beijing’s policy stance on the economy,” said Nomura analysts in a research note late Monday.
“The (central bank) did not deliver a much expected cut of its benchmark lending rates last week. Top officials’ comments suggest Beijing is reluctant to seek short-term growth at the cost of increasing long-term risks,” they added.
Last week, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its medium-term lending facility rate steady, contrary to market expectations that it would make its first cut since August. On Monday, the central bank also kept its Loan Prime Rate — a key interest rate that influences mortgages — unchanged, further dashing hopes for a cut.
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