ZHULIAN CORPORATION BHD
KLSE (MYR): ZHULIAN (5131)
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Last Price
1.06
Today's Change
-0.01 (0.93%)
Day's Change
1.06 - 1.07
Trading Volume
67,600
Changes
| Ann. Date | Date | Type | Name | Title | View |
|---|
Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 1,695 comments
Wow, I was extremely lucky to have exited completely, before Ah Beng started selling off his shares.
I sold off at 1.90 at a small profit (due to dividends, but nothing on price gains).
Now trading at 1.62/1.63.
Is it worth to buy at 1.62?
The problem with ZHULIAN is that its earnings is still lower than the dividends paid out.
For 9 months ending Q3/23, total EPS is only 4.89 sen. Annualizing gives 6.5 sen. It pays out 3 sen dividend every quarter and final quarter is 8 sen (+ 5 sen Special Dividend) for a total of 17 sen.
The shortfall is 10.5 sen. Cost to ZHULIAN = 10.5 sen x 460m = RM48 million.
It's cash holdings has shrunk to RM161m. At this rate, in just 3+ years, all of its cash holdings will disappear if business remains status quo, to support dividends. It's cash holdings is only worth 35 sen, not RM1.62.
If it's business is able to generate 6 sen per annum, with risks of declining, noone would pay a P/E of more than 10 times in a declining EPS scenario. This declining business is worth 60 sen at the most.
Plus 35 sen cash gives 95 sen valuation. Hence, trading at RM1.62 looks expensive still, unless there is line of sight that its business is going to turn around.
Hence, everything depends on its business model.
The hard question is why did its EPS keep shrinking initially gradually every year and in 2023 appears to be accelerating in its fall?
2015: 12.5 sen
2016: 9.1 sen
2017: 11.5 sen
2018: 11.4 sen
2019: 10.8 sen
2020: 10.2 sen
2021: 9.9 sen
2022: 8.3 sen
2023E: 6.5 sen.
This decline is very persistent over past 8 years.
What has ZHULIAN management been doing the past 8 years?
Is this something in ZHULIAN's management powers to arrest the 8 years of EPS decline?
Recent price crash and recovery may not be the end of a longer term downtrend.
2023-12-27 11:34
Looks Ah Beng is forced to stop selling for a while as price has crashed.
But he still owns 48 million Direct + 231 million Indirect = 279 million total
Last round this month, he barely sold 1% of that and price crashed.
There is no way he can realize the remaining 99% at 1.6. More likely, it will be around 0.5 if he really wants to exit. Of course, he might just be selling the 1% to raise spending cash, and still hold the 99% but it doesn't bode well long term for this company, if selling 1% causes price to crash. He picked the wrong time to sell - he should have disposed much earlier like 10 years ago when its price was rising exponentially with high volume.
2023-12-27 11:40
Ah Beng is in a tight spot now.
With recent selling in December, and price crash, it will surely attract SEC attention.
And we know the 5 sen Special Dividend traditionally reserved for the coming Q4 is not sustainable anymore, when 9 months earnings is not even 5 sen, but 4.89 sen.
Special Dividends are not guaranteed.
But because Ah Beng sold, I bet he's going to try to still pay the 5 sen Dividend to avoid SEC scrutiny for insider trading. So, I think, notwitstanding its low earnings, I think more than 50% odds, ZHULIAN will still try to pay the 5 sen Special Dividends, to avoid SEC scrutiny for insider trading. And they will spin that their business model is still fine, cash still positive, nil debts, etc.
But this time, the price rally will not sustain - it will more likely show a lower low. In next 12 months, unlikely to exceed 1.8, unless there is a positive earnings surprise from a new business model or something similar.
But in the scenario for dividend maintenance (best case, 17 sen for 2023), after payment of this final special dividend, if ZHULIAN is responsible, it should start to flag out expectations for lower future dividends. If it doesn't call out these future expectations, then, you are dealing with shareholders who are not transparent.
IMHO, this process of regular selling by Ah Beng in December is a strategic mistake. It is possible (but no one really knows) if he panicked knowing the business keeps getting worse after 8 years.
2023-12-27 11:49
special dividend 1 sen but at least the interim dividiend still maintain 3sen still ok
2024-01-26 11:05
Here he goes again, not even waiting to pocket the dividend. He is either desperate for cash or .......
Name MR TEOH BENG SENG
Nationality/Country of incorporation Malaysia
Descriptions (Class) Ordinary Shares
Details of changes
No Date of change
1 29 Jan 2024
No of securities
61,500
Type of Transaction Nature of Interest
Disposed Indirect Interest
2024-01-30 17:26
Everything is possible but some outcomes are more likely than others
2024-01-31 11:29
Keqing Tan special dividend 1 sen but at least the interim dividiend still maintain 3sen still ok
26/01/2024 11:05 AM
Still OK? Your annual dividend for the financial year 2023 has just been reduced by 24% as compared to 2022!
With little real hope of a meaningful share price increase, why not do what Mr Seng is doing?
2024-02-02 22:18
Want to ask a question here.
For example on 31st Mr Seng and Best Source disposed 300k shares each therefore share volume traded should be more than 600k units of shares but I see the volume traded for the day is about 450k units only.
Why is this so?
As in everyday Mr Seng and Best Source disposes the same amount too.
2024-02-06 10:50
Mr Seng sold the shares in his margin or indirect account so 300k shares are shown as sold by both him and Best Source.
He has upped the rate of disposal now to 534,500 shares on the 5th Feb. Doesn't even wait to pocket the dividend.
2024-02-06 11:14
Avoid ZHULIAN. It's earnings cannot support current dividends. More dividend cuts and more price falls are coming.
EPS decline not over yet. FYE23 6.4 sen is lowest ever past 9 years. If next year drop to 6 sen, and if it exercise discipline in dividend payout, we could see more normal payout ratio of 67% i.e. future yearly dividend could only be 4%. 4% / 1.57 current price is only 2.5% Dividend Yield, i.e. worse than FD. So, ZHULIAN will try to soften the blow, but odds are very high, next year dividend will cut some more. It won't be 13 sen, but smaller.
Clearly, FD is the much better investment here than ZHULIAN.
Net Assets keep dropping fast too. Today its barely above RM1, but if it keeps paying out more dividends than it can earn, we may see Net Assets drop by 10-15 sen per year.
It's business model and business results desperately need to turn around, but how to beat a 9 year (or even longer) earnings decline?
2024-02-06 23:16
The fact Ah Beng keep selling doesn't help.
ZHULIAN still have 155m Net Cash but it desperately need new ideas and new executions.
Clearly, by returning the cash to shareholders constantly indicates it doesn't know how to arrest the earnings decline. It has run out of ideas and execution capabilities.
This stock will be a classic high dividend trap. 13 sen / 1.57 looks very attractive 8% DY, but the coming year, 13 sen drops and eventually go down to 4 sen, and price will crash and that 8% DY disappears. This stock is just waiting to trap all these high yield chasers.
2024-02-06 23:21
cooledhawk123654 difficult to know the rational behind the selling
It is difficult to imagine anything positive about the selling, which has increased from circa 1 million every 3 days to 1 million in 2 days. About another 140 trading days at this rate to get rid of all his shares held by The Best Source Holdings - which I suspect is a margin account. So, maybe he is disposing before the price gets to a level he has to top-up with cash.
2024-02-22 17:57
NewsFlash>
Gold prices have been hitting record highs — here’s why the rally is far from over
PUBLISHED WED, MAR 20 20248:01 PM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/gold-prices-have-hit-record-highs-heres-why-they-could-rally-further.html
2024-03-21 15:27
China central bank top buyer
China is the leading driver for both consumer demand and central bank gold purchases, and the country’s not likely to slow down.
Among central banks, the People’s Bank of China was the largest buyer of gold in 2023. China’s weak economy and embattled real estate sector also drove more investors toward the safe-haven asset, with individual gold investment remaining robust, WGC said.
Poland’s central bank was the second-largest net consumer of gold, snapping up 130 tons of bullion in 2023.
Challenges of the Russia-Ukraine war “just right next door” drives Poland’s desire for stability, said Wheaton Precious Metals CEO Randy Smallwood.
Poland’s central bank governor Adam Glapiński in 2021 had announced plans to buy 100 tons of gold in a bid to boost the country’s financial security, according to local media reports.
Singapore recorded the third highest net gold purchases in 2023, driven by purchases by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which bought 76.51 tons.
While MAS did not disclose the reason for the investment decision, Fan surmised that central banks across the board have been wary of the geopolitical risks from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
“They have probably been adjusting reserve allocations in accordance to their views on risk,” he said.
Retail purchases
Stronger gold prices were also driven by retail purchases of jewelry, bars and coins.
On top of the People’s Bank of China buying the most gold amongst the world’s central banks, the country also recorded the highest amount of retail gold purchases.
“At the retail consumer level, China was a major factor in strong demand for gold last year as individuals moved into gold to diversify from other asset classes,” Fan said.
According to data from the World Gold Council, China overtook India to become the world’s largest gold jewelry buyer in 2023. Chinese consumers bought 603 tons of gold jewelry last year, a 10% increase from 2022.
Alongside China, consumer demand for gold in India is also one of the world’s biggest, said Smallwood, especially during India’s wedding season, which runs typically from October to December, and between January and March.
“Gold is always the highest form of value gift that you can actually give someone within India. It’s a real big part of the wedding season,” he said.
People buy jewellery at a showroom on the occasion of Akshay Tritiya, at PP jewellers Karol Bagh on May 3, 2022 in New Delhi, India. Gold prices were flat on Friday and poised for a fourth consecutive monthly drop, as an elevated U.S. dollar and aggressive monetary policies from top central banks continued to erode demand for bullion.
While India’s jewelry demand should continue to be significant, more expensive gold could put some dent in that spending, WGC said. India’s gold jewelry consumption demand dipped 6% to 562.3 tons in 2023 from a year earlier.
That said, India’s investment in gold bars and coins grew 7% year on year. The country’s central bank demand for gold also continues to be strong, with the Reserve Bank of India purchasing 8.7 tons of gold in January, marking the highest monthly purchase since July 2022.
Aside from China and India, Turkey’s gold demand last year almost doubled that of 2022, according to WGC records.
Unrelenting consumer inflation, limited available alternative investment and domestic political uncertainty during the presidential elections last year drove Turkey’s demand for the yellow metal.
Turkish lira trading at record low against the greenback
“Turkey recorded strong retail demand as well, with investors piling into gold during the presidential election last year to protect against potential volatility in the Turkish lira,” Fan added.
Turkish annual consumer price inflation recently surged to 67.07% in February. The Turkish lira lost 40% of its value against the dollar in the past year, and is currently trading at a record low against the dollar.
2024-03-21 15:35
Wow! That;s great news for Zhulian. We can continue to receive more dividends.
2024-04-05 15:13
Ah Beng cashing out all his profits like what all good Chinamen will do. You wanna go long, go with Indian owner businesses. They tend to have multi generational ambitions and strength
2024-05-16 10:45
The question is... what does he want to do with all the money? Technically, based on the amount of shares he's holding, he can afford to liquidate every day up to 160 trading days (assuming 300K shares per day). And that is just direct shares! Not even counting indirect shares yet...
2024-05-16 16:32
@shogun86 pump and dump.
Never bothered to spend money on innovation or growing market share
Topline is straight-line declining from 2014
Will be money losing in about 3 years.
Just saying. classic type c business
2024-05-16 17:09
Aih... go up before financial announcement and then back to down again... dividend payout also decreased to 1 sen...
2024-07-18 10:31
Ah Beng selling again. 300k shares everyday. Likely do it until end of the year.
See everyone at rm0.76
2024-07-24 18:02
Or worse case scenario 0.01 cents down every day with 100 reading days left. And ah Beng sells 600k shares every day (himself 300k, and the company another 300k) daily
So we end the year at 0.26 cents?
2024-08-01 15:55
No big dividen , np keeps dropping , no point to hold big sum of tickets = dump kaw kaw !
2 weeks ago
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@ where is @1009. the biggest promoter of Zhulian
2023-12-26 17:02