wsb_investor

筹资跨足电影业
大马保险代理Norman Pang
明年新加坡上市

2024-05-14 16:28

wsb_investor

If not mistaken, great eastern adopts a very aggressive method to calculate future profit from medical business, something like always reprice 10% annually hence the Pv profit can become very unrealistic (in my view). However, not sure how the normal retail shareholders view it, since they won't have such info.

2024-05-14 16:30

observatory

Thanks for your input.

Using today closing price, Allianz total market cap is RM7,694m.

Based on Maybank's input, the Jun 2023 general insurance equity is RM2.5b, and life insurance EV is RM3.5b.

Working backward, assume 1.4X book value for the GI business, the implied value of life business = RM7,694m – RM2.6b*1.4 = RM4,194m, or 4194/3500 = 1.2X EV

I hope Allianz EV methodology is conservative and prudent.

2024-05-14 23:02

troy88

On track to slowly climb to eventually reach RM30+ level..

2024-05-18 11:57

henghua

Based on NTA of RM28.88, it’s not impossible and surprising. It’s a matter of time. Just be patient and wait.

2024-05-18 12:31

wsb_investor

Diluted NTA is just RM14.85.
While it is possible to reach RM30, probably won't happen in 3 years time. RM25 probably max for this year.

2024-05-18 20:13

Papayashot

For IFRS17, will the bond yield fluctuation (which would cause unrealized gain/lost in bonds hold) be factored while calculating the net profit?

What is the impact of the current elevated Malaysia bond yield (as compared to covid time) to an insurance company?

2024-05-18 21:26

wsb_investor

Yes, but less volatile vs pre IFRS17.

Short term, negative impact to capital, might reduce ability to pay dividend etc. Long term, higher yield will have positive impact to future profit.

2024-05-18 23:09

observatory

The Edge covers the privatization offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GEH). There are a number of interesting points.

0.7X P/EV is the cheapest acquisition in Singapore in 20 years.

The second cheapest is 2021 HSBC’s acquisition of Axa Singapore life business at 0.8X (incidentally, HSBC Malaysia is Allianz Malaysia banca partner)

GEH was traded at 0.5X P/EV before the acquisition offer. I might be wrong, but I suspect one reason for the low valuation was the low liquidity prior to the offer. OCBC already controlled 89% and a few other shareholders are long term investors like Sg Bagan. Sometimes only a few thousand shares traded in a day. Similar situation to Allianz just not long ago.

While OCBC moves further towards a financial supermarket model that include banking and insurance, DBS and UOB believe otherwise as they believe insurance “manufacturing” and distribution require different core competences.

If I look at Malaysia, our largest bank Maybank owns Etiqa and until now has no plan to float it. A looser arrangement is Hong Leong Bank distributing for HLA which is sister company.

So who is right?

2024-05-18 23:43

observatory

2024 first interim dividend has reduced by 16%

2024-05-18 23:46

wsb_investor

No right or wrong. But need to know product strategy and maximise bancassurance channel. Etiqa as example, become top 6 purely with bancassurance, but another Tokio Marine, struggle to have meaningful market share with RHB bancassurance. HLA got mix of agency and banca, not sure with the split.

2024-05-19 01:08

observatory

Berkshire Hathaway announced it has acquired 6% of Chubb.

The EPS has climbed from $10 in 2016 to $22.5 in 2023, a CAGR of 12%. But despite share price increase, Chubb is currently priced at 12X forward PE. The valuation looks reasonable even though it was said that good years might have peaked.

Next I looked up Allianz SE, the forward PE is only 10-11X. Dividend yield is above 5%.

Although developed countries may have slower growth rate, but matured market may enjoy higher valuation. These two large insurers don't look expensive if compared with Malaysian counterparts.

2024-05-19 12:42

troy88

Uptrend still intact to eventually join the RM30+ elite group..

2024-05-20 09:51

observatory

@wsb_investor,

I looked up the last 12 month results of a few Bursa insurers.

Company, Net Profit, Latest Equity, ROE
MNRB, 428m, 1334m, 3%
Manulife, 77m, 1270m, 6%
Allianz, 731m, 5141m, 14%
LPI, 341m, 2211m, 15%
STMKB, 347m, 1679m, 21%

They are in different sub-segments - P&C, life, or both; some conventional, some Takaful. But regardless of sub-segment, ROE measures how efficient the company is in deploying shareholder capital.

Not too surprised to find that Allianz and LPI are “better” than MNRB and Manulife.

But STMKB remains a puzzle. Post IFRS17, ROE declined a bit, but still above 20%, the highest among peers.

Is STMKB really the most efficient insurer when it comes to the use of shareholder equity? Do takaful operators need lesser capital as compared with conventional?

Any idea?

2024-05-20 15:43

wsb_investor

In fact, in a way yes, for single premium product, there is 0 capital upfront. For ILP (regardless if conventional or takaful), there will be a strain, and a limit of how much can sell at a point.

So, in theory, say if we got 1.4bil population, STMB can immediately sell 45x of MRTA, but Allianz probably can only sell 3x of ILP before being restricted by the capital.

However, this is not meaningful at all. And similarly focus on ROE is not meaningful as well. MRTA is good, profitable business, but in the end, still restricted by how many new house loan by your bank partner.

2024-05-27 01:33

mesoan

wsb_investor please share how 3X ILP is calculated?

2024-05-27 08:37

wsb_investor

just a hypothetical number, could be 3x 5x, could also just be 2x.

2024-05-29 11:33

wallstreetrookieNEW

@wsb_investor you worked in mgmt at insurance company or were you an actuary?

2024-06-03 13:42

wallstreetrookieNEW

@observatory you are a very pro investor indeed. But you got one thing wrong: Some insurance companies have low ROE due to their riskier underwriting and markdown on investments. Especially re-insurers. So let's say you have one year of higher claims and cat losses, the combined ratio will shoot up, and ROE stays flat if investment returns also remain flat.

2024-06-03 15:16

wallstreetrookieNEW

Switch to Allianz

2024-06-06 14:09

wallstreetrookieNEW

Holding both MNRB and Allianz. Not worried at all

2024-06-06 15:10

wallstreetrookieNEW

Entire forum suddenly became quiet. What the heck is wrong with yall

2024-06-14 14:07

wsb_investor

Income Insurance, Allianz in talks on tie-up, seeking regulatory approval

2024-06-14 23:25

observatory

If it goes through, how might it affect Allianz Malaysia?

2024-06-16 01:33

mesoan

@observatory I guess there's no impact. the tie up would benefit the mother company Allianz SE

2024-06-25 08:04

observatory

800k of ICPS have just been converted into ordinary shares.

ICPS provides 20% extra dividend but harder to sell. For 800k volume, if they cannot be sold in blocks, it’s better to convert into ordinary shares rather than sold at a discount to ordinary shares.

Based on shareholding information, I guess the shareholder is either EPF, or one of the Public or AHAM funds.

2024-06-29 14:22

wsb_investor

New RBC framework just out yesterday, effectively 2027, but will have immediate impact on product mix starting next year.

2024-06-29 18:16

troy88

Uptrend to resume soon after some consolidation for insurance stocks

2024-07-02 10:56

wsb_investor

Many hoo-ha with co-payment medical insurance recently. Insurers are already moving away from cashless, yet some doctor association/consumer group jump out and said, cashless is better. Many people don't see the point that, the saving in premium, will higher than the deductible in just 2-3 years time. You might need to fork out RM500 or RM1000 for admission, but you save back premium (and hidden commission) in 2-3 years. There is no free lunch, for everyone, but dropping the cashless feature, will introduce a great saving immediately.

2024-07-09 09:56

wsb_investor

For many white collar office job, you (and maybe your family) already covered by your employer's group insurance. There is no real need for you to have a cashless medical insurance.

2024-07-09 09:59

wsb_investor

Allianz has announced a pre-conditional voluntary cash general offer to acquire at least 51% of the shares of Income Insurance, subject to regulatory approval. Allianz intends to offer $40.58 per share for a total transaction value of approximately $2.2 billion (approximately EUR 1.5 billion) for 51% of the shares in Income Insurance. The offer price represents a premium over Income's NAV of $29.55 per share of 37.3%.

2024-07-17 17:27

observatory

The business could be supported by the newly set up shared IT services in Malaysia. But any possible synergy with Allianz Malaysia?

2024-07-17 20:35

wsb_investor

Allianz already has some existing shared service in Malaysia, but in a very weird arrangement.

2024-07-18 08:23

observatory

What do you mean?

2024-07-18 11:32

wsb_investor

If my understanding is correct, Allianz will loan out its internal staff (under a single entity), as shared service to other BUs, and get to profit from it. A more common way is, shared service will operate as a separated entity (might or might not under local BU, typically not under local BU, but directly under Group).

2024-07-18 12:38

observatory

I see. Maybe for non-IT staffs. For IT they transferred the majority of Malaysian staffs to the new regional delivery center Allianz Technology Sdn Bhd

2024-07-18 14:44

mesoan

but shared service is very small business, unlikely to improve Allianz mas earning

2024-07-21 19:12

observatory

Only after reading yesterday news that I realize Prudential parent company owns just 51% * 50.99% = 26% of Prudential Assurance Malaysia Bhd.
If Prudential can’t obtain greater control as per Federal Court’s decision, wouldn’t it discourage Prudential from growing its Malaysian market?
How would Prudential agents react?

2024-07-31 16:16

wsb_investor

No，Pru plc owns 51% of PAMB. If bumi proxy can just anyhow songlap foreigner share, I think discourage Prudential from growing MY market is the least concern.

Before 1998, Pru plc owned 30% of PAMB, Berjaya owned ~69%. In 1998, Berjaya divested in PAMB, and supposedly sold all ownership back to Pru plc. However due to insurance act 1996, Pru plc cannot, on paper, own 100%, hence the Detik Ria (30% @ 1998) as bumi proxy. Vincent Tan personally also hold 19% of PAMB share at this point, only later (unknown when), sold the 19% to Detik Ria. Pru plc has signed some put and call options on the ownership of Detik Ria (i.e. fixed price) that it will repurchase back the ownership at later time.

Later in ~2017, BNM (or government) started to want to enforce the foreign ownership (now 70%), Pru plc then planned to get back the 49% and then disinvest accordingly. This Tommy, used the excuse that not getting MoF approval, but ignoring that BNM has given the approval. Next time how? listen to who? MoF or BNM?

Who is enforcing the 70%? BNM. From the article, BNM also ok with Pru plc approach, to get back 100% of share, and proceed with disinvestment accordingly. Then suddenly, VT and Tommy, come out with this idea, to songlap Pru plc ownership.

2024-07-31 17:11

wsb_investor

Prudential is not the only company that foreign owns 100% via bumi proxy. GE has gotten exemption. AIA has approval from white house, probably no one dare to touch. HLA and Etiqa are local. Allianz/Manulife are listed. Sunlife/MCIS/Generali/FWD/AmMetlife all have local partner. Zurich and Tokio Marine probably still 100% foreigner own, with proxy.

2024-07-31 17:21

observatory

The Federal Court ruling cannot be further appealed. Wonder what can Prudential do. Negotiate and pay?

2024-07-31 18:18

wsb_investor

Comments on AMIB report:
i. mandatory coinsurance, on long term, is good for everyone (except private hospitals)
ii. market risk charge under RBC2 will be higher, yes, but overall risk charges might not be higher. Also, comparing CAR change from RBC to RBC2 is completely meaningless. There are new risk charges (or new components), but there are also diversification.

2 months ago

wsb_investor

Allianz's proposed acquisition of a 51% stake in Singapore's Income Insurance for US$1.6bn has been called off after the Singapore government intervened, stating the merger "would not be in the public interest."

2 months ago

wsb_investor

Expert Foresees ‘Full Privatisation’ Of MOH’s FPP Service

2 months ago

wsb_investor

Allianz is currently priced at around 1x BV for GI, and 1x CSM + NAV for Life.
PBB is offering to takeover LPI @ ~1.74x BV.
In Singapore, Allianz offers to takeover NTUC @ 100% EV (failed), GE offers to privatise @ ~70% EV (not going well).
Regionally, Prudential and AIA are still trading at near record low, and FWD IPO still keep delaying due to weak market sentiment.
If GI is fully priced (based on Lonpac 1.74x), share price should be ~28.
If both Life and GI is fully priced (based on pre-covid era, life insurance valuation), share price should be ~40.

Allianz FY2023 total expense is ~650mil, while PBT is 957mil. I understand that Allianz is currently undergoing some cost saving measure, say if materialise, a 10% cut in expense, can increase PBT by 6.8%.

Immediate catalyst will depend on Anwar's healthcare reform.
Currently, Malaysia healthcare expenditure is ~50bil, of which 17% by private insurance (~8.5bil).
Allianz has ~1.5-2bil/yearly (and rising, with loss ratio ~80-90%) in medical premium/COI alone (>17% market share).
Anwar is pushing for rakan-KKM/FPP in government hospital, and supposedly in his ideal world, only B40 can enjoy RM1 healthcare, in the crowded government hospital. M40 can go for full pay gov hospital, and T20 can go private hospital. A lot room for medical insurance, if Anwar's plan success, of course, at the expenses of rakyat, and make greedy private investors richer.

1 month ago

observatory

GI last 12-month ROE was about 16%. If sustainable, a 1.7x P/B multiple similar to LPI is fair. The GI valuation will be RM2,611m * 1.7 = RM4,439m

I’m not sure about the fair multiple for life business.
Net CSM + tangible shareholder equity = RM4,497m.
Market leader AIA which has high growth rate in new business value, is currently traded at 1.3X EV (~62/48).
Shouldn't Allianz Life be valued at a discount to AIA?

1 month ago

winston1

Come January, can expect good dividend announcement

1 month ago

wsb_investor

I compared AIA MY and Allianz MY NB growth, Allianz is marginally higher than AIA for 2023 vs 2022, and 2023 vs 2019. Anyways AIA HK covers too many markets, and hard to put value on them, vs Allianz MY is a lot more simple.

1 month ago

wsb_investor

Maybank is said to weigh options for insurer Etiqa, value @ around $4billion, ~RM 17.6bil, more than double of Allianz current market cap.

1 month ago

wsb_investor

received notification about medical repricing again. probably a good year ahead for Allianz.

1 month ago