Chipee

I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves. Info from here:
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/03/1031853/kossan-rubbers-sales-may-remain-stagnant-first-half-2024-says#:~:text=The%20firm%20added%20that%20Kossan,FY23%20to%20enhance%20operating%20margins.

1 month ago

Chipee

I made a quick calculation on the data of Kossan selling at $16 per 1000 gloves.

Q1 2024:
Revenue = Rm 451,625,000 = $96,090,425 (at 4.7 xchange rate)
Gloves sold per 1000 unit = $96,090,425/$16 = 6,005,652

Conclusion on SPECULATION:
Kossan can sell at $17.20. China is selling at $16 too but there's a 7.5% tariff which equals to $17.20.
Meaning Kossan could had make:-
Revenue: 6,005,652 x $17.20 = $103,297,207 x 4.7 = Rm485,496,875
Extra profit at same cost: Rm485,496,875 - Rm 451,625,000 = Rm33,871,875

As ASP improve, Kossan can sell at higher price. Harta's ASP is $21. So Kossan has much room to move up.
Just by taking ASP of $18, Kossan can easily make extra Rm56.5 million.
Rm56.5 million + Rm22.2million (Q1 24 PBT) = Rm78.7million.
Which is similar to 2019 quarterly earning.

On Utilization Rate.
Also, 6,005,652,000 per quarter means 24 billion per year. Kossan annual capacity is 32 billion in 2019.
24/32 = 75% utilization rate. This number could be lower if follows 2024 annual capacity but I don't have the number.

I see improvement. I'm holding and hope to see better Q2 results as ASP is stabilizing.

1 month ago

KimSua

Great insight. Need confirmation of their operation efficiency and with utilzation improving to above 80%. KOSSAN should surpass Harta soon.

1 month ago

Chipee

@KimSua you can read Kossan automation here from The Edge:
https://kossan.com.my/media/pdf/2021/MediaCoverage-TheEdgeDigitalEdge-KossanDigitalTransformation_20210329.pdf

1 month ago

ChandranG

Kenanga continue to short gloves 😑

https://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E8%A6%81%E4%B9%88%E4%BA%8F%E9%92%B1%E8%A6%81%E4%B9%88%E8%B5%9A%E5%B0%91-%E6%89%8B%E5%A5%97%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%8D%E9%81%AD%E6%B3%BC%E5%86%B7%E6%B0%B4

1 month ago

KimSua

Chipee thanks for the information. We know each quarter results will be better than the last for at least end of the year and next year US will start transition their supplier away from China.

1 month ago

Chipee

KimSua, Welcome. Lets Huat Ah!!!!

1 month ago

KimSua

Cup and handle forming, high chance for a breakout next week to test recent high. The cup depth is small and handle volume is small as well. Let's see how, good luck

1 month ago

paperplane

UOB latest report TP- Harta 3.92, Kossan 2.73, TopGlov- 1.28

1 month ago

KimSua

Quad witching hour this friday. Trade with care, expect high volume surge and violatility due to options expiry.

1 month ago

Chipee

Top Glove spectacular result. Finally profitable. ASP is improving.

1 month ago

ChandranG

Sell on good news today?

1 month ago

ChandranG

Sell on good news today?

1 month ago

Chipee

Now I'm observing 28 June. USTR is collecting opinions from their industry players on the tariff hike. I'm hoping they want it to be earlier than 2026. Old and bigger players may want to kill their small/new players in US. These new players has been "disturbing" their profit using China's gloves. We'll see. Can only hope.

1 month ago

Chipee

Let the data sink in for them. We will see the next week. As Kimsua highlighted, options expiring.

ChandranG

Sell on good news today?

1 month ago

Lukey_Greek

In the AGM, Mr Lim mentioned that the worst was over, however the recovery is more like a L shape, instead of V. Utilisation rate was about 60% only for Apr & May.

1 month ago

Lukey_Greek

The boost of USA tariff of 25% in 2026 will only have temporary effect, as China will gain more market share in Europe. The supply & demand will be rebalanced as a whole. The ASP will more or less back to 2025 level after that.

1 month ago

Chipee

If you have not seen the news, RIGHT parties are winning in Europe. We will see the result in UK and France election results next month. If they take over the governments, rest assure more tariff on China. I doubt China can take over Europe market.

1 month ago

Mini2021

TP 3 by year end

1 month ago

Chipee

Anwar announce to join BRICS, KLSE just sold off. Could it be the reason?

1 month ago

Albukhary

When Kossan new HQ will be officially launch?
Everyday I passed by it, such a nice building, very ESG style of building, especially if you compare it to Top Glove Tower.

1 month ago

Mini2021

Another 30 days.... Kossan Result.... Another 40 days Harta Result

4 weeks ago

ChandranG

Typically it will release its Q2 result by end of July

4 weeks ago

ChandranG

Another rally for glove counters ?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/cdc-data-shows-covid-19-cases-rising-in-majority-of-us-states/articleshow/111319633.cms

3 weeks ago

Iamnotasifu

Kossan Nice Chart, challenging RM3 next week?

3 weeks ago

Albukhary

Tomorrow is the 1st day of 2nd half year.
Wish everyone Heng Ong Huat.
Wish KLCI break 1700 by end of the year.
Wish FBMSMCAP break 23,000 by end of the year.

3 weeks ago

ChandranG

A bit hard, Iamnotasifu. Let's wait another good news for gloves then

2 weeks ago

Chipee

American Hospitals Association wrote a letter to USTR to reconsider the tariff on medical products from China. This part of the letter:
"The AHA urged the USTR to only impose tariffs if it demonstrates sufficient manufacturing capacity outside of China to make choices among manufacturers a credible option. "

Gloves are easily available outside China. .. as in Malaysia. :)
So if USTR may reduce the tariff on other medical products from China, will USTR apply 25% tariff on China's gloves as early as 2025? Knowing US need to collect tax to pay their debt and reduce their fiscal deficit.

2 weeks ago

Iamnotasifu

easy 6% today, tomorrow another 20%?

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

EPF sold Kossan ; bought CTOS

1 week ago

zzprozaz

Post removed.Why?

1 week ago

speakup

10minit casino buka!

1 week ago

Chipee

If Kossan release Q1 in 21 May 2024, then the Q2 result will be out 21 August. I don't why they keep moving their release date. It's very annoying.

1 week ago

ChandranG

You should ask Kossan management, Chipee. If not mistaken, they have a 60-day deadline to publish the quarter report

1 week ago

Chipee

Assassination on Trump fail. I consider Trump already won the election. China's going down.
Glove is going up.... Now Trump just need to stay alive to win the election.

1 week ago

Mini2021

Tomorrow Glove Gap UP.... Trump win

1 week ago

ChandranG

wow, Abrdn & EPF sold Kossan ... They went to buy CTOS btw

6 days ago

Albukhary

Wow, Hong Leong give Kossan Target Price of RM3.23.

Kossan’s 1QFY24 core PATMI came in at RM24.7m (-19.6% QoQ, +191.2% YoY),
making up 13.2% of our (inline) and 16.9% of consensus (above) full year
expectations. Weaker QoQ performance was mainly due to higher tax expense of
RM8.9m (vs RM1.8m in 4QFY23). Going forward, we expect Kossan to deliver
sequentially stronger earnings in the coming quarters, underpinned by (i) the
commencement of the inventory replenishment cycle, (ii) potential trade diversion
from US to Malaysia as a result of US FDA import alert issues and higher import
tariff on China in CY26f, as well as (iii) higher profit margin from economies of
scales. On top of the recovery thesis in CY25f, we do believe there are potential
re-rating prospects for Kossan, considering its more favourable balance sheet and
income statement profiles vs Hartalega. Keep BUY call on Kossan with an
unchanged TP of RM3.23, based on a P/E multiple of 32x (at parity to Hartalega’s
3-year pre-pandemic average) on its FY25f EPS of 10.1 sen

5 days ago

Jack888

VCP trend line ?? uptrend ??? buy a bit.

5 days ago

Albukhary

I expect coming QR Kossan can deliver PAT of RM60-70mil.

5 days ago

Chipee

You are quite conservative my fren... I'm looking at Rm70-80mill based on ASP of $17-18.

Albukhary

I expect coming QR Kossan can deliver PAT of RM60-70mil.

5 days ago

Chipee

Trump win has this effect
1) 10% tariff on every imports and 60% tariff on China. That 50% difference which more than 25% tariff in 2026. And we don't need to wait until 2026 for the effect.
2) Allow export of US Natural gas which will lower global price. Msia gloves use natural gas as energy.
3) Higher US import tariff => Higher US inflation => Higher Rates => Higher US dollar. Kossan and Harta export to US for USD.

Msia glove sector is the best bet for Trump win.

5 days ago

sugerdad

> 利率提高 => 美元走高
然后美国人买不起房子车子。没有老板发展生意。
利息付不起后破产。总统下台

4 days ago

Albukhary

手套股经历了几年产能过剩，售价贱跌煎熬，今年四月至六月业绩初见曙光，券商分析员也上调手套业前景。

丰隆投资银行（HLIB）研究预测，手套厂商在下一季度可以交出更好业绩及盈利。

大马股市4大手套厂是顶级手套（TOPGLOVE 7113），贺特佳（HARTA 5168），高产柅品（KOSSAN 7153）及速柏玛（SUPERMX 7106）。

四大厂股价过去2个月明显回升，但是和2021年最高峰相比，股价蒸发80%左右。

顶级手套终止连亏7季窘境 Q3净赚5067万令吉


在周二的行业更新中，HLIB表示，虽然总体上看好经营环境的改善，但认为 2025 财年的复苏论调已被合理定价。

我们维持对该行业的 “中性 “评级，但对高产柅品（KOSSAN 7153）及的评级为 “买入”。

HLIB称，销售量将显着恢复，而平均销售价格（ASP）将从第二季度（2024年第二季度）起逐步改善。

该研究机构称，就地区而言，总部位于泰国的斯里庄手套公司自2020年中期上市以来，其2024财年第一季度的销售量达到了101亿件（季度环比增长14%），创下了新的记录，以510亿件的装机容量计算，工厂利用率达到了87%。

该公司称，就以泰铢计算的平均售价而言，斯里庄市环比略微增长了 1%。

该报告说，在中国，自 2023 财年第二季度以来，丁腈医用橡胶手套的主要生产商一直在满负荷生产。

“2024 年第 1 季度，中国最大的丁腈手套生产商英科医疗（Intco Medical）的丁腈手套销量持平，而根据我们的回溯计算，丁腈手套的平均售价（ASP）至少环比增长了 13%。

“例如，贺特佳（HARTA）以令吉计算的平均售价在2024年第1季度提高了2%至3%，但其他公司的平均售价却下降了2%至5%。

“因此，我们得出结论，与全球同行相比，2024 财年第一季度的销售量和平均售价轨迹的偏差主要是由于本地同行之间的价格竞争造成的，因为一些企业的产能仍然过剩，”它说。

HLIB表示，虽然它对手套生产商经营环境的改善持积极态度，但2025财年的复苏论调已被合理定价，因为5月份美国宣布对中国加征关税后，积极的情绪推动了近期的股价反弹。

4 days ago

Albukhary

英科医疗(300677)7月18日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2024年上半年度实现净利润5.5亿元—6.2亿元，同比增长87.61%—111.49%。报告期内，公司产能利用率达100%，一次性丁腈手套及一次性PVC手套的销售均价较去年同期均有所提升。

4 days ago

mf

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Industrial Average

40,652.89

-545.19

1.32%

Nasdaq

NASDAQ Composite

17,817.01

-179.90

0.99%

4 days ago

ChandranG

Looks like BIMB and Kenanga are shorting glove counters ...

3 days ago

Mini2021

Kossan Net Profit 80 million+

19 hours ago

Albukhary

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/07/22/trump-20---more-pain-than-gain

14 hours ago

Albukhary

China kena 60% Tariff, Malaysia kena 10% Tariff.
I thinks this can consider a good news for Malaysia Glove Player?

14 hours ago