Gaussian

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-mpox-case-asia-first-deadlier-strain-confirmed-traveller-africa-4561271

3 weeks ago

Chipee

I think their ASP is $16 still. Can't believe it. Even Sri Thang ASP is $18.

3 weeks ago

Albukhary

But don't worry, I believe revenue drop could be highly due to the Red Sea crisis and cause some of the June'24 sales postpone to July'24.

If this is the case, then you can expect next quarter Q3'2024 to achieve PAT of minimum RM70-80mil (assume at least RM10mil profit brought forward from Q2 to Q3)

3 weeks ago

Chipee

I hope you're right Albukhary. With this QR result it could go either way. Just bcoz Harta QR was excellent. Kossan is showing no improvement from previous qtr.

3 weeks ago

Endgame

31 mil profit, no wonder dropped from 2.5x to 2.0x

3 weeks ago

Patron

Harta PBT margin 7%
Kossan (gloves division) PBT margin 6.26%
and yes theres some shipment delays ( not sure how much , but harta had around 10% sales volume delay )

unless your expectation was not realistic if not its within the line

3 weeks ago

Chipee

Harta profit 31.9Mill .. price 2.75. What do you said abt that?

Endgame

31 mil profit, no wonder dropped from 2.5x to 2.0x

3 weeks ago

beginner888

Harta:

Mar’24 : Revenue 529.83mil
Mar’24 : PBT 18.88mil
Mar’24 : PBT Margin 3.6%

Jun’24 : Revenue 583.84mil
Jun’24 : PBT 41.14mil
Jun’24 : PBT Margin 7.0%



Kossan:

Mar’24 : Revenue 451.63mil
Mar’24 : PBT 40.98mil
Mar’24 : PBT Margin 9.0%

Jun’24 : Revenue 429.91mil
Jun’24 : PBT 38.57mil
Jun’24 : PBT Margin 9.0%

3 weeks ago

Mini2021

My expectation is 3 billion profit..... no woner drop to 2.0

3 weeks ago

Patron

@beginner888
for kossan you have to sort out the gloves division part
its 6.26% instead of 9.0%

3 weeks ago

Chipee

@Patron
"Sorting out glove division part" is like saying saying McD has to sort out the burger part from the fries part.
IF that's the case then Harta has to "sort out" their COAT gloves from the nitrile and latex gloves. Cmmon. Don't be ridiculous.

3 weeks ago

ChandranG

Analysts upgrade Kossan's ratings after 1H results meet expectations. Nice ~
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/723968

3 weeks ago

KimSua

Have to hold longer, no concern next few qtrs, just no easy money, unless ustr pull in the tariffs to 2025. Or set it to 50 percent as propose

3 weeks ago

beginner888

@Patron noted. I missed your comment in the bracket (i.e., gloves division). Thank you for the reminder.

3 weeks ago

Patron

@Chipee
you know Kossan's non glove division for eg. Technical Rubber division contributed only 10% of the overall revenue but it contributed almost 30% of its PBT right ?

theres no right way to have 100% apple to apple comparison but we try to close the gap as much as possible to see the clearer picture

3 weeks ago

Patron

@beginner888
Harta & Kossan have similar PBT margin % if you exclude non cash / non operating cost like impairment , decommissioning cost , ramp up cost and etc.

its at 6-7% in Q2 - not too bad but not impressive enough. it all depends on upcoming sales order momentum.

3 weeks ago

Patron

@kimsua
USTR tariff will be implemented in 2026 - not too far away actually ( about 16 months away )
consider the long lead time and shipment time from China firms
probably the orders will come to Malaysia as soon as Q2 2025

3 weeks ago

beginner888

@Patron Thank you for providing those insights

3 weeks ago

KimSua

@patron the final ustr 301 determination has been delayed until the end of August. They are negotiating and getting feedback, one of the proposal is a 50 percent in medical ppe in 2025 while relaxing critical syringes tariffs. This is based after feedback from both medical associations and manufactures associations. Let's see how. Will scout around and published as soon as I can.

3 weeks ago

KimSua

Ops expenses reduce 430k to 409k. Trade receivable flat qtq but 30k higher than 2023. Red Sea is not really a big problem. Most expect better revenue. Best operating margin, well manage but can they manage the sales volume. If flat again next quarter, time to reasses. USTR should have a statement end of the week or next week

3 weeks ago

Patron

@kimsua
for Harta ,

Q2 sales volume at 5.9b
but 0.6b was delayed
it means 10% of the revenue was not recognized , which i think was quite serious especially the margin is at razor thin now

3 weeks ago

Patron

Q1 23 Q2 23 Q3 23 Q4 23 Q1 24 Q2 24
Harta's Sales volume (bil pieces) 5.7 4.3 4.6 4.5 5.6 5.9

Q3 is expected to be at 2.2b per month ( 6.6b per Qr)

volume is increasing but ASP is quite flattish i guess the industry wide is still facing oversupply issue but we are near to equilibrium as Harta / Kossan are no longer in losses anymore

demand < supply = losses
demand = supply = slight/zero profit
demand > supply = profit

its just part of the cycle

3 weeks ago

Fairus4469

Kossan mempunyai tunai yg paling banyak berbanding dengn Harta dan Top Glove?

3 weeks ago

Gaussian

The Global Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP) for mpox, from September 2024 to February 2025, outlines urgent global actions to combat a new mpox outbreak declared a public health emergency. Focused on controlling human-to-human transmission, the plan emphasizes surveillance, research, and equitable access to medical tools, with an initial budget of $135 million.

3 weeks ago

Gaussian

The WHO is taking strong measures to stop the spread of Mpox. With only two confirmed cases of the more dangerous strain outside of Africa, they are already implementing a six-month readiness and preparedness program.

The WHO actions suggest an explosion of Mpox cases are imminent.

3 weeks ago

Gaussian

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13783885/amp/Vaccines-Mpox-not-work-against-deadly-strain-sweeping-Africa-detected-Europe-Asia-countries-soon-hit-UK.html

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

Be cautious guys ..https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202408/1318699.shtml

2 weeks ago

Chipee

We can only know the sales of glove due to mpox on Q3 result.

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

Indeed, the management will bring out the Mpox topic in the next briefing

2 weeks ago

SWT1988

m waiting below 1.65 b4 considering buying.

2 weeks ago

Chipee

Kenanga share got short kaw kaw ... hahaha ..
This IB always down play glove stock. Happy their stocks get trashed. The trashing will continue after the suspension. 😂
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/08/29/bursa-malaysia-suspends-idss-for-kenanga-investment-bank

2 weeks ago

Chipee

More tariff is coming ... Canada. Hopefully they target on gloves too and EU follow suit.

https://insidetrade.com/trade/our-most-read-canada-targets-chinese-evs-steel-and-aluminum-hints-more-come

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

What goes around, come around. Your turn to get shorted, Kenanga 😁

2 weeks ago

Chipee

Yeah ... F them big time. 😂
ChandranG

What goes around, come around. Your turn to get shorted, Kenanga 😁

2 weeks ago

ket4212

kwap buying harta and topglove have something brewing

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

Margma sees slightly higher glove demand amid mpox outbreak

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/725317

1 week ago

EverettLee

Expect a big rebound in this month end

6 days ago

ggleow

ggg - glove gg

6 days ago

Chipee

I think USTR put on hold the tariff announcement after Trump-Harris debate. So Trump won't have the bullet to use in the debate.

6 days ago

ChandranG

Trump or Harris, US still will impose high tariff on China's gloves

4 days ago

Chipee

USTR increase tariff on glove and facemask from 25% to 50% at delayed date (Didn't mention exactly when). Facemask was supposed to be in 2024 and glove 2026. So when? 2025?

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-locks-steep-china-tariff-hikes-many-start-sept-27-2024-09-13/

3 days ago

KimSua

Considering the public comments, the specific direction of the President to increase
tariffs on medical gloves no less than 25 percent in 2026, and the advice of the Section 301
Committee, particularly agencies involved in U.S. medical preparedness, the U.S. Trade
Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to
50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026
From ustr website. Pls verify

3 days ago

KimSua

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/05.14.2024%20Four%20Year%20Review%20of%20China%20Tech%20Transfer%20Section%20301%20(Final).pdf

3 days ago

Chipee

GOOD NEWS GUYS!!!

"Considering the public comments, the specific direction of the President to increase
tariffs on medical gloves no less than 25 percent in 2026, and the advice of the Section 301
Committee, particularly agencies involved in U.S. medical preparedness, the U.S. Trade
Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to
50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026."

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20Modifications%20Determination%20FRN%20(Sept%2012%202024)%20(FINAL).pdf

3 days ago

Chipee

Wah KimSua... you beat me to it ... HUAT AH!!!!!

3 days ago

KimSua

Happy to share good news :) let's see how the market reacts. Will take a few days for analysts to absorb

3 days ago

Patron

Gloves Sector Flash Update (UOBKH)

USTR Raised China Surgical Gloves Tariffs to 50-100%

In a 105-pages official announcement just released, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced final modifications on the statutory review of earlier tariff actions on China.

This is an update from earlier proposed modifications announced in May 2024.

Key updates are on: new timing and tariffs rates on face masks, medical gloves, needles, and syringes. Also includes: i) a proposal regarding coverage of additional tungsten, wafers, and polysilicon tariff lines; ii) an exclusion for ship-to-shore cranes ordered prior to May 2024; iii) an expansion of the scope of the machinery exclusions process; iv) and modification of the coverage of proposed exclusions for solar manufacturing equipment.

To recall back in May, US increases higher tariff of 25% (from current 7.5%) on China’s rubber medical and surgical gloves’ exports beginning 2026.

The tariffs on China medical gloves are now raised to 50% in 2025, and 100% in 2026. Refer to page 18-19 of the under medical gloves segment, “The U.S. Trade Representative has determined to increase the rate of additional duties on medical gloves to 50 percent in 2025 and to 100 percent in 2026.”

This higher tariffs were not entirely a surprise, as we’ve been taking a leap of faith and highlighted possibilities of further detrimental policies towards China’s exports. Our contrarian OVERWEIGHT rating on the Malaysian glove sector were also largely premised on such potential scenario.

This steep tariff hike modification on China gloves undoubtedly solidify Malaysian glove industry’s market leader position and allays earlier concerns on market share losses due to stiff competition.

We expect share prices of Malaysian and Singapore glove stocks to strongly react towards this newsflow._

Maintain BUY on Harta (RM2.42/TP:RM3.66); Top Glove (RM0.915/TP:RM1.45) and Kossan (RM1.83/TP:RM2.42).

Next meaningful sector event will be Top Glove’s 4QFY24 results releasing on 10th October.

2 days ago

Chipee

I'm wondering if Canada and EU will follow on this tariff hike? Canada has the highest chance. EU is still trying to buddy with China bcoz their luxury goods export. But China already slow a lot in luxury purchase.

21 hours ago

dompeilee

Posted by dompeilee > 2024-01-08 08:48

I didn't manage to buy Kossan @ $1 BUT my last purchases were @ $1.2932, $1.2767 & $1.384 in June & July 2022 which more than doubled my earlier stake & lowered my average to $1.8003 & earned $322.75 in dividends to boot!🤗

After selling most of my Kossan a little too early in Jan & Mar, I SOLD 80% of my remaining stake @ $2.25 this morning.

5 hours ago

limch

Harta limit up. Will Kossan follow?

3 hours ago