Personal opinions today:

The EU summit was held on the first day of yesterday. The original market estimated that the results of the UK and EU Brexit trade agreements announced the outcome of the negotiations between the two countries at the summit. Unfortunately, in the end, the content of the negotiations between the two countries has still not match their results, and it is estimated that it will take two weeks to continue discussions. At present, they said that the content of the Brexit negotiations is mainly due to the lack of Irish border trade and the work visa of British in Europe. Most other problems have been resolved. The situation helped to eliminate the market's fear of hard Brexit, so the pound and the euro fell more limited. Only the minutes of the Fed policy meeting show that all officials unanimously support the gradual rate hike, and that the Fed’s interest rate hike in September is also reasonable, boosting the dollar in the short term, causing the major currencies and gold to fall against the dollar.

In addition, the recent UK data showed a poor performance. The number of jobless claims rose in September, while the consumer price index and retail price index fell. Under normal circumstances, the market expects the UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales to fall this afternoon, which is bad for the pound. The market expects that the UK government's short-term shortfall will narrow and the public sector borrowing will rise, which will help boost the pound. This afternoon, only the German wholesale price index in the euro zone has limited influence. In the afternoon, the market only pays attention to the performance of Swiss trade accounts in September, which has a direct impact on the Swiss franc. If there is a significant gap in the performance of the data, the euro has a large fluctuation against the Swiss franc.

At night, the market is concerned about the number of US jobless claims and other data on manufacturing data. If the US data is positive, it will help the US dollar, and the major currencies will fall against the US dollar and gold prices. However, it must be noted that there are still more than half a month, the US presidential midterm elections, the market risk aversion is heating up at any time, and the dollar is negative. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and prevent the dollar from reversing the risk.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1480/1.1465 support

1.1515/1.1530 resistance

The EU summit started, and it was decided at the meeting that the Brexit negotiations still need time to discuss and the euro was bad, the EURUSD hitting 1.15 support. Look at other economic data performances in the short term, especially tomorrow's Eurozone trade accounts. And for the next two nights, the US economic data performance also needs attention. The technical trend of the euro against the US dollar is developing a downward trend. At present, it is concerned about the starting point of the rising wave of 1.1480, which is testing other support.

GBPUSD

1.3085/1.3055 support

1.3135/1.3155 resistance

The Brexit negotiations still failed to meet the final expected results, which was bad for the pound. Coupled with the weak performance of the UK data, market investment interest declined, and the pound continued to fall. The current Brexit negotiations will take several weeks to discuss and it is necessary to observe the economic data comparison between the UK and the US. Technically,  1.3030 and 1.2985 as strengthen support. If it falls, it will worsen the issue of Brexit and further negative the pound.

USDCHF

0.9955/0.9970 resistance

0.9925/0.9910 support

The minutes of the Fed meeting show that the gradual increase in interest rates will continue to boost the dollar. The Swiss franc has weakened, breaking through 0.9900 and breaking through the resistance of 0.9940. The recent US dollar against the Swiss franc is at 0.9955. If there is no breakthrough in the end, you can pay attention to the trend reversal. In the afternoon, the Swiss trade account in September is also worth noting, please check it out and look forward the trend.

USD/JPY

112.70/112.85 resistance

112.35/112.15 support

The US Dow rebounded and the Nikkei index rebounded in tandem. The dollar followed the yen. In addition, the Fed’s remarks boosted the US dollar, and the USD/JPY once saw a high of 112.70, which is also a resistance of 123.6%. As analyzed yesterday, the USD/JPY broke through 112.35 and the trend will be further tested at 112.55 and 112.75. However, note that in this range, the trend has a chance to reverse, and the estimate is adjusted to 112.35 and 112.15 support.

AUDUSD

0.7125/0.7140 resistance

0.7090/0.7075 support

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5% in September, down from 5.3% last month, but other employment numbers fell, offsetting the good news of improved job data. If the US economic data is weak, the dollar is weak, boosting the Australian dollar. In addition, also pay attention to the copper price performance.

NZDUSD

0.6585/0.6610 resistance

0.6525/0.6500 support

The Fed’s monetary policy view is negative for the New Zealand dollar. Short-term New Zealand has no important data to announce, the market is watching the EU summit is also disappointed, the New Zealand dollar trend continues to decline. Technically, the Australian dollar trend will affect the New Zealand dollar directly and must be noted.

USD/CAD

1.3050/1.3075 resistance

1.3010/1.2985 support

The oil price suddenly fell, and it was bad for the Canadian dollar. The market expects Friday's Canadian consumer price index and important economic data on retail sales to be released, and the data is expected to be in the Canadian dollar. Technically concerned about the resistance of 1.3075.

EUR/GBP

0.8785/0.8800 resistance

0.8765/0.8750 support

The EU and the UK government said that the Brexit agreement still needs time to discuss, the euro against the pound continues to move upwards, and it is expected that the euro-pound trend may still be repeated during the EU summit today.

EURCHF

1.1455/1.1470 resistance

1.1435/1.1415 support

Technically, if the euro falls below the 1.1450 support against the Swiss franc, the trend is reversed. Currently, the first resistance level of 1.1455 will continue. If the breakthrough fails, the euro will test below 1.14 against the Swiss franc.

XAUUSD

1226/1228 resistance

1220/1218 support

The Fed minutes, officials unanimously supported a gradual rate hike, and gold that is sensitive to interest rate movements fell. In addition, the stock market has high volatility in the near future. If the US Dow rises sharply, the price of gold may fall further.

US crude oil futures:

70.25/70.75 resistance

68.80/68.30 support

The Fed’s comments made demand dropped and the oil prices fell. The oil price fell below $70, and hit 73.6% of the adjustment wave, $69.45. If the market continues to ferment the Fed’s interest rate hike outlook, it will have the opportunity to test $68.30. Technical resistance is $70.25 and $70.75.

BTCUSD:

6680 / 6750 resistance

6280 /6060 support

The performance of the US economy and fiscal deficits concerns. Also, the US CPI under the market expectations, the bitcoin demand increasing and got support. FOMC meeting and decision interest rate hike,  but the demand of bitcoin did not change too much. By technically, 6750 is a important resistance. If the break through fails, the price may fall further.

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

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