Personal opinions today:
After the US Thanksgiving holiday, the US Dow rally, rose 346 points to close, mainly because market investors believed that Thanksgiving spending increased, driving sales volume growth to stimulate stock prices. However, the Dow's gains may have already reflected the value expectations. If you want to further increase, it is still a stimulus to see if there is any good news at the G20 meeting on weekends to improve the market's good expectations.
Yesterday, Germany announced the November IFO business climate index, slightly lower than the market expectation, lower than the previous value, so that Europe and the United States can not break the resistance of 1.1390. In addition, the draft of the Brexit agreement submitted to the EU Brexit Committee by the British last weekend was passed, but the opposition within the UK continued, and the Prime Minister even said that there were no other backup options. The market believes that the Brexit draft is hard-pressed in Congress, and may eventually lead to the failure of the draft. The UK is not only facing the hard-off Brexit crisis, but also political instability in the UK. I believe that in the short term, the outlook for the pound is not optimistic, and the pound is in danger. Europe’s economic and political prospects are uneasy, risk aversion is on the rise, and there is an opportunity to boost gold.
Today's suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1365/1.1385 resistance
1.1305/1.1285 support
Although the EU passed the draft Brexit agreement, it belongs to the positive Euro news. However, the Brexit agreement still needs to wait for the debate in the British Parliament, and finally whether it can be finalized. It is a pity that the opposition in the British Parliament is endless, so the euro is also affected. The negative sentiment may lead to the possibility of Euro continuing to decline. Currently concerned about the resistance of 1.1365 and 1.1385. If Euro rise above the 1.14 mark, it is very difficult for the time being. If there is a turnaround, it may be that the US economy has deteriorated, or the US Federal Reserve officials and the chairman can say that the Fed has suspended the rate hike.
GBPUSD
1.2835/1.2855 resistance
1.2775/1.2750 support
The Brexit agreement will eventually have to wait for the final decision of the British Parliament, and the draft agreement is still pending. If the opposition in the British parliament is endless and brings bad feelings, It may believe that the pound will continue to decline, and the greater the pessimism, the pound may or may break below 1.2750. Short-term technical 1.2855 is an important resistance reference.
USDCHF
0.9975/0.9955 support
1.0010/1.0035 resistance
The draft Brexit agreement is still full of pessimism, because the Brexit agreement still needs to wait for the final debate and finalization of the British Parliament. Therefore, the trend in Euro fell, indirectly negative for the Swiss franc. In addition, more than 72% of traders on the market still believe that the Fed will raise interest rates in December, so that the US dollar will remain strong. After the USD/CHF returns to the resistance of 0.9985 again, the next resistance zone of 1.0035 and 1.0050 may be tested.
USD/JPY
113.60/113.80 resistance
113.00/112.80 support
The US Dow rebounded, and the Japanese Nikkei index once rose to 22,085. The outflow of funds into the stock market led the dollar to return to the 113 level. If the stock market rises further, the dollar is expected to continue to rise against the yen. Conversely, USD/JPY will test the technical support at 112.55. However, in the short term, we still need to pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations, and the stock market may adjust. Technical the resistance of 113.60 and 113.80 are very important.
AUDUSD
0.7230/0.7250 resistance
0.7195/0.7180 support
Although the economic data of Australia and New Zealand have improved respectively, but more than 72% of traders in the market expect the Fed to raise interest rates in December, which is believed to be one of the short-term negative factors for AUD. In addition, Sino-US trade relations have not improved significantly. US President Trump said that China’s import tariffs will increase to 25% as scheduled in January next year. The global trade slowdown may lead to the Australian economic recession. Therefore, it is recommended to keep a focus on downside risks. Explore the support below.
NZDUSD
0.6770/0.6785 resistance
0.6735/0.6720 support
New Zealand's third-quarter retail sales annual rate and quarterly rate fell, negative performance. However, Sino-US trade relations have not improved significantly. US President Trump said that China’s import tariffs will increase to 25% as scheduled in January next year. The global trade slowdown may lead to a recession in New Zealand, so it is recommended to keep abreast of downside risks.
USD/CAD
1.3275/1.3290 resistance
1.3240/1.3225 support
In the next two days, there is no important data released in Canada, so the oil price trend will dominate the Canadian dollar. If the oil price can get rid of the downward trend, there will be a chance to increase the Canadian dollar, otherwise there will still be room for decline. It is recommended that the current focus on oil price performance has a direct impact on the Canadian dollar.
EUR/GBP
0.8850/0.8865 resistance
0.8830/0.8815 support
The euro and the pound are weak relative to each other in the Fed's interest rate hike next month, which keeps the euro against the pound and maintains a narrow range of fluctuations. Of course, the current result of the UK and the EU's final Brexit in the UK is not undulating. It is recommended to wait any breakthrough in the above recommendation support and resistance.
EURCHF
1.1335/1.1355 resistance
1.1290/1.1270 support
There are no important data released in the Eurozone and Switzerland, but the Italian fiscal deficit in the Eurozone has made investors concerned. The euro has a downside risk against the Swiss franc. Currently concerned about 1.1290 and 1.1270 support, the euro against the Swiss franc will likely test the resistance of 1.1355.
XAUUSD
1226/1228 resistance
1219/1216 support
The Brexit agreement is waiting to approve by the British Parliament, the risk still making, positive for demand of Gold. However, the US stock market rose, gold market funds flowed to the stock market, and gold prices fell. Both good and bad news exist at the same time. There is no single orientation. It may believe that the current long and short positions of gold are in conflict with each other. In the absence of a general direction, it is recommended to trade between technical support and resistance and wait for any breakthrough.
US crude oil futures:
52.05/52.55 resistance
50.20/49.85 support
Earlier, the OPEC agreed to cut production next month, and the Fed intends to suspend interest rate hikes, which is expected to stimulate demand for crude oil and increase oil prices. The market is concerned about the number of crude oil inventories. Next, the market is looking any good news at the G20 meeting in the coming weekend. If it is good conversation for global investment or cooperation, the price of crude oil will have a chance to rebound.
BTCUSD:
3880 / 4120 resistance
3575 / 3300 support
As like as prediction a week ago, US Fed intends interest rate hike and US government intends to control the crypto currency market , it made the demand changed, the crypto currencies may keep downward until next FOMC meeting in mid-December. The downside target may test lower support. Now adjusted the resistance. If the bitcoin break USD4320, probably that can be change the downtrend.
Enjoy trading!
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals
such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
