ATFX Market Update_Martin
ATFX Market Update - 2019.07.15
Personal opinions today:
The third week of July, China GDP for the second quarter shown fell to 6.2 percent, down 0.2 percent from 6.4 percent in the previous quarter. While China's GDP fell in the second quarter, the disappointment was offset by faster growth in other internal data. As always, if the data turns out to be predictable, it will calm the market. If the rest of the economy does well, it could boost the stock market, and bearish the yen and gold.
After China second-quarter GDP today, it's worth watching for comments from the U.S. federal reserve bank of New York's manufacturing index in July and the fed's William. U.S. data and comments from the fed's William have an impact on the dollar and are reflected in other investment products. In addition, existing home sales in Canada in June and the Canadian national economic confidence index have an impact on the Canadian dollar. Tomorrow morning, New Zealand released the second quarter CPl, market forecast growth, bullish the NZD, and indirectly bullish Australian dollar. This week, the federal reserve releases its "beige book" report on the U.S. economy during U.S. trading on Wednesday.
[Important financial data and events]
10:00 China second quarter GDP annual rate
14:30 Swiss producer and import prices for June
20:30 US New York manufacturing index for July
20:50 Fed Williams speaking
21:00 Canada existing home sales in June
22:00 Canadian national economic confidence index
Today suggestion:
EURUSD
1.1285/1.1300 resistance
1.1250/1.1235 support
Last week the governor of the bank of Italy speech and the bank of Italy quarterly economic bulletin, which described an upbeat economic outlook and Italy mentioned the fiscal deficit and boost the euro. But U.S. producer and core producer prices beat expectations in June, limiting the euro's gains. Today, the New York fed manufacturing index for July and the federal reserve Williams speech. Weak data and Williams speak against the dollar before the euro has a chance to rise. Technically, the key resistance to the euro is 1.1300. With only more good news to stimulate it, the euro could break through that resistance.
GBPUSD
1.2605/1.2640 resistance
1.2525/1.2500 support
UK unemployment rate and jobless claims figures will be released tomorrow, followed by June CPI and retail prices on Wednesday. These data tend to affect the value of the British pound before and after the release of data fluctuations. While market expectations are unchanged at the moment, the market is paying attention. Believe that the current situation is expected to limit the rise of British pound, the trend is still likely to fall. Technically, the British pound could still dip below 1.2525 or 1.2500. Resistance levels can be referenced at 1.2605 and 1.2640.
AUDUSD
0.7005/0.6985 support
0.7040/0.7055 resistance
U.S. federal reserve chairman Powell left open the possibility of a rate cut, while the dollar's gains were capped, creating a rise in the Australian dollar. Tomorrow New Zealand released the second quarter of CPl, the market forecast growth, indirect benefit of the Australian dollar. Technically, it is recommended to pay attention to the resistance of 0.7040 and 0.7055. Expect the trend of AUDUSD, continue to influence the trend of the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the NZDUSD can refer to last month's high 0.6725, pay attention to whether the breakthrough.
USDJPY
107.80/107.65 support
108.20/108.40 resistance
Federal reserve Powell said to maintain interest rate cut expectations, limit the dollar, the dollar fell against the yen narrow. More important today, stocks were weak and the dollar fell more against the yen ahead of China's second-quarter GDP results. Finally, China's GDP fell in the second quarter, but the disappointment was offset by faster growth in other internal data. Technically, 107.80 and 107.65 are short-term supports, with resistance of 108.20 and 108.40 above. More important resistance 108.60 and 108.80. Watch for Asian stocks and the Dow, watch for capital flow, and assess the dollar against the yen.
USDCAD
1.3025/1.3005 support
1.3075/1.3095 resistance
The bank of Canada will hold off on raising rates until next month. The chairman of the federal reserve said the fed still has an opportunity to consider a rate cut. Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar can move back below 1.3055, testing the recent low support of 1.3035. Canadian and US economic data are still to be seen today. In addition, if the attention crude oil price rise, will likely strengthen the Canadian dollar's rise, the recommendation maintains the attention.
US crude oil futures
60.85/61.30 resistance
59.70/58.85 support
The market waited to see the U.S. API crude oil stocks held on Wednesday. The storm in Mexico affected oil supplies and OPEC production cuts, which had boosted crude prices. Today the fed's Williams is speaking. If further cut expectations, oil prices could rise. Technically, there are still opportunities for crude oil prices to challenge resistance of 60.85 and 61.30. Conversely, a fall in US inflation after Mexico storm, for example, could push oil futures lower, with the first reference support at $59.70 and $58.85.
XAUUSD
1417/1419 resistance
1401/1398 support
Gold prices were capped after U.S. inflation data rose in June. Earlier this analysis noted that if U.S. inflation data rose more than expected in June, watch for gold prices to fall more sharply. Markets awaited "beige book" economic report, which provides further insight into the state of the U.S. economy. When the beige book comes, the price of gold may be relatively volatile, should pay extra attention and risk management.
U.S. Dow Jones futures US30
27355/27455 resistance
27175/27095 support
U.S. inflation rose in June and economic data showed tentative improvement. Trade talks between China and the United States well, Dow up slightly. In addition, the federal reserve said it was still considering cutting interest rates and that money was flowing into riskier investments in the stock market. Markets awaited "beige book" economic report on coming Wednesday US trading time. The Beige book provides further insight into the state of the U.S. economy. Ahead of the beige book, the Dow gains were limited, noting the recent correction in high resistance.
BTCUSD:
10550 / 10750 resistance
9750 / 9550 support
As mentioned couple week ago, the China and U.S. trade tensions cool down. US non-farm payroll over the market expected, the Fed may not cut rate in this month. It is suppose bullish US dollar, bearish bitcoin. Technically, the critical resistance lower to US$12000, seeks the support. Early today, the bitcoin broke US$10,000 support and reaching lower. The technical support, the first targeted were US$9750.
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Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.
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