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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 Aug 29

 

Personal opinions today:

 

US two-year and ten-year Treasury yields continue to upside down, yesterday the Dow opened lower, gold prices rose, briefly approaching $1,547. Nikkei futures also fell, with the USDJPY trading as low as 105.65. Crude price rose because a decline in APl and EIA crude oil stocks, US crude oil prices rose, leading the Dow futures to rebound as much as 200 points. Unfortunately, after the news was digested, the market continued to wait and see the US Q2 real GDP revision and the number of new jobless claims, crude oil futures prices adjusted, in the rebound wave between 61.8% and 73.6% consolidation.

 

Assuming the European markets open today, limiting the euro's rise in anticipation of an increase in jobless figures ahead of Germany and unemployment rate. This was follow by changes in the Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index and consumer confidence index for August. In the evening, Germany released its first reading of the CPI for August, but more important is the US real GDP. The result will affect the dollar index and indirectly affect the price of the dollar against major currencies and gold price. Crude oil prices will be affected by the US GDP results, indirectly affecting the forecast of oil demand in the next quarter, thereby affecting price fluctuations. Of course, U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in July at the start of the week, which is expected to help lift the outlook for U.S. economic growth. As long as the US GDP may not fall sharply, it can be bullish the dollar and support the price of crude oil, and it may decline relative to the price of gold. A good number of U.S. data that could improve the Treasury yields, helping lift the Dow and worldwide stock indexes.

 

[Important financial data and events]

 

14:45 French GDP

15:55 German unemployment change and unemployment rate

17:00 Eurozone economic and industrial sentiment index

17:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index

20:00 German CPI

20:30 U.S. Q2 real GDP revision 

20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims

20:30 Canada Q2 current account

22:00 U.S. existing homes sales

 

Today suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1110/1.1135 resistance

1.1060/1.1045 support

Today may be watching the German unemployment change, unemployment rate and CPI monthly preliminary data. Also, final readings on economic and industrial sentiment and consumer confidence in the Eurozone. More important, the United States reported revised Q2 real GDP figures. That could affect the Euro in the short-term. Technically, the EURUSD resistance can be noted 1.1110 and 1.1135 in range. If the EURUSD falls, first note the 1.1060 support.

 

GBPUSD 

1.2250/1.2270 resistance

1.2190/1.2170 support

The British prime minister has written to the Queen asking her majesty to postpone the parliamentary session until the end of the Brexit deadline. The action has affected British politics, triggering the possibility that Britain could end up leaving the EU without a deal. The British prime minister's actions, contrary to what he said to the European Union during the G7 summit, are bearish the pound. Today, the market will be looking at the US Q2 real GDP figures then look ahead to the pound. Markets are still waiting to see the release of US economic data tonight, believing that the volatility of pound will be limited. The resistance could see 1.2250 and 1.2300, respectively, as significant resistance to the pound, worthy of attention.

 

AUDUSD 

0.6775/0.6795 resistance

0.6705/0.6689 support

U.S. Q2 real GDP revisions is coming, expected to limit gains in the Australian dollar ahead of the release. What is more important is that starting from this Sunday. The United States is raising additional tariffs on Chinese imports in stages beginning over the weekend as the trade war between the United States and China upgrading, which is indirectly hurting the Australian economy. Of course, in this phase of the fall in the China RMB, also indirectly affect the Australian dollar. Technically, the AUDUSD first focus on the 0.6775 resistance. It would believe that upgrading trade war. It is difficult to find a breakthrough. The Australian dollar is expected to continue its downward until early next week. Believe that the New Zealand dollar will continue to follow the trend of the Australian dollar. Investors can refer to the USD/CNH (code: USDCNH). If the USDCNH rises, it means the RMB falls, which also means the Australian dollar has the opportunity to follow the trend of decline, and if the reverse happens, the Australian dollar will rebound.

 

USDJPY 

106.10/106.30 resistance

105.55/105.35 support

The United States is raising additional tariffs on Chinese imports in stages starting over the weekend as the trade war between the United States and China upgrading. Second, the US Treasury yields upside down, the Dow to the global stock market rise limit. More likely to be affected by investment sentiment, the Dow has a chance to fall. Also, Japan and South Korea have tightened export restrictions on technology products already in effect, which has the potential to affect the Japanese economy and the Japanese stock market. In general, the USDJPY tracks the Dow and Nikkei. If this new round of trade wars, could lead to global stock market declines, the USDJPY may follow. It is recommended to keep watching the Dow and Nikkei to determine the direction of USDJPY trading. Believe that the 106.30 significant resistance.

 

USDCAD 

1.3325/1.3340 resistance

1.3275/1.3260 support

The sharp decline of API crude oil inventories in the United States has boosted the price of crude oil. Unfortunately, the trade tensions between China and the United States has escalated. The Canadian dollar, in this case, has failed to keep pace with crude oil prices, falling instead of rising. We believe that today, the market will watch the US Q2 real GDP results, and then reflect the performance of the dollar. Technically, it is still possible to believe that the Canadian dollar's decline could be contained if crude oil prices keep rising.

 

US crude oil futures

56.50/57.05 resistance

55.00/54.55 support

Crude oil prices have rebounded as U.S. API and EIA inventories have fallen sharply. Watching U.S. Q2 real GDP results today, if they exceed market expectations, could boost oil demand and prices. But the US President is showing signals to reduce the Iran sanctions. If improved the relations lead to an increase in oil supply, it is more likely to fall than limit the rise in oil prices. Technically, this analysis pointed out yesterday that the crude oil prices at $56.50 and $57.05 resistance, pay attention to crude oil prices downward adjustment.

 

XAUUSD 

1545/1550 resistance

1535/1530 support

The yield on U.S. Treasury bills was upside down, limiting the Dow's gains. As always, if Dow fall, gold prices rise. Besides, the Fed chairman has released dovish remarks, also solidified the gold price rise. U.S. Q2 GDP revisions were higher than market expectations, U.S. Treasury yields returned to positive territory, the Dow future is expected to rebound above the 26060 resistance, and gold prices have a chance to make a deep correction. For now, keep an eye on Dow futures and catch gold prices movement.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26060/26250 resistance

25705/25635 support

The United States is raising additional tariffs on Chinese imports in stages starting over the weekend as the trade war between the United States and China upgrading, and the mood of investment cautiously. Also, the market is mainly watching the release of the United States Q2 real GDP revised results. If the trade tensions between China and the US eases, the US GDP revision is better than expected, and the inverted Treasury bond yield is improved, the Dow could rise. Technically, the Dow break 25980 resistance, the next level of resistance is 26060 and 26250. On the contrary, if the support 25635 breaks, the next support will look to 25400.

 

BTCUSD:

10050 /10250 resistance

9450 / 9150 support

Trade tensions between the US and China, could bullish the bitcoin price and followed the gold price rose. However, it seems cool down; the bitcoin price could fall a bit. Technically, it supports may looking at 9950 and 9650. That was here mentioned yesterday. The markets watching for the U.S. release US Q2 real GDP revised figures. If it is below previous data and lower expectation. That could affect the FOMC monetary policy decision and bullish the bitcoin price. Keep watching the US data tonight.

 

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