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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 10

 

Personal opinions today:

 

The British parliament has voted to prevent a "no-deal" Brexit, reducing the risk to the UK. On the other hands, the market expects trade talks cool. Two significant drivers, Dow futures, crude oil price and the dollar, rose against the yen, while gold fell more than expected.

 

In European trading hours today, a conversation between the UK's August unemployment rate and jobless claims, also the Bank of England governor Carney talks was in focus. New housing starts in Canada and building permits in Canada during U.S. trading hours. U.S. business retail sales and July job openings, keep an eye on the dollar and Dow futures reference that outlook. But in the U.S. afternoon trading hours, the outlook for API crude oil inventories and the expected U.S. consumer price index and retail sales could lead to a correction in Dow futures and crude oil prices.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

14:45 French industrial output in July *

16:30 UK unemployment rate and jobless claims for August **

18:00 U.S. NFIB small business confidence index for August *

20:00 U.K. Bank of England governor Carney talks

20:15 Canada housing starts in Aug *

20:30 Canada construction permit in July **

20:55 U.S. business retail sales *

22:00 U.S. job openings for July *

24:00 EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook *

Next day at 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories change ***

 

Today suggestion:

 

Eurodollar 

1.1065/1.1085 resistance

1.1000/1.0985 support

The Euro did not hit its 20-day average resistance of 1.1065 when coming to the European central bank monetary policy meeting on Thursday in anticipation of a policy easing and interest rate cut. The dollar remained stable, and the Euro had an opportunity to extend losses before any Eurozone data showed growth, with the euro likely to hit or breakthrough 1.0985 support and see if it can break through 1.1065 and 1.1085 resistance in the short term. Without a breakthrough, It was believed that the fundamentals and technical still give the Euro a chance to fall.

 

Pound against dollar

1.2365/1.2385 resistance

1.2300/1.2280 support

The risk of a no-deal Brexit is cooling, indirectly pound gains. Britain's parliament has voted to block an early general election. A successful bid for an extension or an orderly Brexit is expected to be an essential trading indicator for the pound, which is likely to be highly volatile. The pound is expected to come downward ahead of today's UK jobs data and comments from the governor of the Bank of England. Technically, please pay attention to 1.2400 significant resistance and 1.2280 support. Short - term breakthrough 1.2280, the trend may fall further.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6865/0.6885 resistance

0.6825/0.6800 support

Australia, which has seen consumer confidence and business sentiment fall but has not benefited from a rise in China Aug CPl, is waiting to see how China's data play out in the afternoon. Depending on the results, these factors can, directly and indirectly, affect the fluctuation of the Australian dollar. Technical bit support must pay attention to 0.6825 and 0.6800 support.

 

Dollar to yen

107.55/107.80 resistance

107.15/106.90 support

Dow futures and Nikkei futures rose, leading the dollar stronger against the yen. Yesterday, if the Dow and global stock markets continue to rise, the dollar may break 107 yen. Technically, the initial assumption is that Dow futures and Nikkei futures will continue to grow, with resistance at 107.55 and 107.80. If Dow futures and Nikkei futures reverse their decline, it is believed to lead the dollar to fall against the yen.

 

Us dollar to Canadian dollar

1.3205/1.3225 resistance

1.3160/1.3140 support

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, mentioned it was actively controlling production by both OPEC members and non-OPEC members. Technically, the market is waiting for the latest crude oil inventory change data after the U.S. dollar broke through its support level of 1.3200 against the Canadian dollar, which may limit the rise in crude oil prices and limit the volatility of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar.

 

U.S. crude oil futures

58.85/59.45 resistance

57.80/57.40 support

Saudi Arabia, the largest crude producer, mentioned controlling production by OPEC members and non-OPEC members. U.S. and China trade tensions eased, and British no-deal Brexit was cooling down bullish oil prices. Technically, crude oil price reference resistance of 57.05 and 57.35 is considered a significant resistance range breakthrough. Before the market looks at U.S. API crude inventories, watch out for a possible roadblock to the rally. To adjust, first refer to the ten and 20-hour moving averages, respectively, 57.80 and 57.40 support bits. If the crude oil inventory increases, the crude oil price adjustment falls sharply.

 

Gold 

1495/1498 resistance

1482/1479 support

The market, which is watching U.S. August CPl and U.S. retail sales data this week, had believed gold would consolidate above support levels of 1506 or 1503 ahead of the results, with an opportunity to test the resistance of 1524 and 1527. However, the British parliament passed a bill to prevent the no-deal Brexit and re-election, and the investment risk decreased slightly, investors put their money into the risky investment of the stock market, the demand for gold fell, and the gold price adjusted to 1482 dollars before the rebound started near the starting point in July. There is an opportunity for gold to gain on Thursday after the European central bank's interest rate if hike and U.S. inflation data CPI lower.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

26870/27000 resistance

26665/26540 support

The trade tensions between China and the United States eased, and investment sentiment improved. The British parliament passed a bill to prevent a no-deal Brexit and an election. The risk of investment decreased slightly, and investors invested in the stock market risk. These factors are reflected in the rise in Dow futures. The market is awaiting U.S. August CPl data and retail sales data, as well as comments from the U.S. President and the federal reserve, which could move markets in the short term. The Fed chairman's comments earlier left interest rates unchanged, limited the Dow future‘s gains and dip below support.

 

BTCUSD:

10550 /10750 resistance

10050 / 9850 support

The market expected the FOMC might hold monetary policy decision in September, and it could hold the interest rate, the bitcoin price fell. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future. If Dow fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies upward.

 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.

 

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