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ATFX Market Outlook, 2019 September 18

 

Personal opinions today:

 

UK and Eurozone CPI in August is a crucial concern during today's European trading session. Canada also released August CPI, affected the USDCAD volatile during the early US trading hours. More importantly, the four major central banks including, the Fed, BoJ, Switzerland central bank and the Bank of England, will announce the results of interest rate on the same day.  Markets are paying more attention to whether the federal reserve cut interest rates and Fed Chairman Powell spoke at a press conference. The BoJ has a chance to expand its quantitative easing monetary policy in preparation for an increase in the consumption tax in October. There is a chance that the Bank of England monetary policy remains, but the content of its meetings and the proportion of its nine voting members are important. Markets are looking at the UK and Eurozone data today and have an opportunity to reflect the Bank of England monetary policy tomorrow as it considers cutting interest rates or expanding quantitative easing. Currencies were generally exposed to downside risks ahead of the rate cut by the world's four major central banks. Gold prices rose on expectations that central banks, especially the federal reserve, would consider easing monetary policy. The dollar is expected to fall first before the FOMC meeting. The dollar index has an opportunity to strengthen in anticipation of the Fed’s meeting.

 

The attack on Saudi Arabia's oil supply system has affected primary global crude supplies. There are reports that Saudi Arabia's oil supply system is being restored, with production now at 70% and expected to return to full normal levels by November. Besides, crude oil futures fell below $59 as U.S. API crude inventories rose in the market.

 

[Important financial data and events]

Note: * is the degree of importance

 

16:30 UK CPI and Retail price in August ***

17:00 Eurozone CPI for August ***

20:30 US Housing starts in August **

20:30 Canadian August CPI **

22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory **

02:00 the next day US  FOMC  interest rate decision ***

02:30 the next day Fed chairman Press conference ***

 

Today suggestion:

 

EURUSD 

1.1080/1.1105 resistance

1.1025/1.1000 support

Markets expect the Eurozone August CPI to rise, possibly leading Euro rose. Also, the Fed discussed interest rates, which it estimated could be cut by 25 basis points. The dollar fell and inflows to the Euro. Technical Euro seems to hover between 20 - and 10-day averages consolidation limited to 1.1105 resistance. Note that the euro fluctuated during the FOMC decision.

 

Pound against US dollar 

1.2520/1.2550 resistance

1.2455/1.2425 support

The market expects U.K. CPI and retail prices to rise in August, and the federal reserve may cut interest rates. The British pound rebounded from its low yesterday, but limited resistance ahead of 1.2520. If resistance 1.2525 fails to break, keep in mind that British pound could test support at 1.2425 before and after the Fed’s meeting. Note that pound fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

 

Australian dollar to US dollar

0.6885/0.6905 resistance

0.6845/0.6830 support

The RBA minutes of September monetary policy meeting, released in a dovish manner, did not stimulate investor sentiment or publish dovish speech. Note that the Australian dollar fluctuated during the Fed 's announcement. Generally, the federal reserve has not indicated that the beginning of the interest rate cutting cycle, the dollar strong, bearish Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar follows the Australian dollar. Note that the Australian and New Zealand dollars fluctuated during the Fed’s announcement.

 

Dollar/yen

108.25/108.40 resistance

107.80/107.65 support

The dollar rose on expectations of strong US data and cooling of expectations of a rate cut limited a quarter basis point by the federal reserve. The JPY came downward after the Bank of Japan interest rates and monetary policy decision tomorrow. Mainly wait and see the Bank of Japan governor press conference speech. Dow and Nikkei futures traded in narrow, with the USDJPY following the trend. If the Fed cuts interest rates, Nikkei index and Dow futures rose further, indirectly bullish dollar/yen trend. But technically, 108.25 and 108.40 resistance is significant, if not breakthrough, it may test 107.65 support. Note that the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fluctuated during the Fed's decision.

 

U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar

1.3255/1.3270 resistance

1.3200/1.3175 support

Crude oil futures prices fell, indirectly bearish Canadian dollar. The market is concerned about the Canadian CPI fall in August, thus a short Canadian dollar. A weaker Canadian data than market expectations could be bearish for the Canadian dollar. If crude oil futures prices down, further bearish Canadian dollar. Short-term support watches out for 1.3200 and 1.3175 support. Suggest USDCAD first look at 1.3255 and 1.3270 resistance. Note that the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the Canadian dollar during the Fed's announcement.

 

US crude oil futures

60.05/60.75 resistance

58.25/57.55 support

Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply system was hit, leading to a 5.2 million barrel drop in essential supplies. But there are reports that nearly 70% of production is resuming. Also, US API crude oil inventories increased, crude oil futures prices fell. Crude oil futures supply is expected to stabilize slowly. Oil prices have limited upside and opportunities to fall. Technically, important support 57.05 and. Note 60.75 significant resistance. If the Fed signals the start of a rate-cutting cycle, it could affect bullish oil prices. Conversely, there are downside risks to crude oil prices. Note that crude oil prices fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

 

Gold

1506/1510 resistance

1496/1492 support

Today, the market is waiting for the four major central banks to cut interest rates in anticipation of the federal reserve; other central banks may follow, which could affect bullish gold prices. If Dow futures rise before the rate meeting, gold will follow suit. Today, if a strong U.S. economic data could limit gold's gains. Technically, gold has significant support at $1,482. Without a breakout, the gold rally remains unchanged. Note that gold prices fluctuated during the fed's announcement.

 

U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30

27205/27305 resistance

26870/26745 support

The market is watching U.S. economic data and the outcome of the federal reserve rate, the results before the adjustment of the Dow’s gain, is consolidating. A Fed rate cut or further rate cut with a strong U.S. data could lift Dow futures to 27205 and 27305 resistance. Note that Dow futures fluctuated during the Fed's announcement.

 

BTCUSD:

10550 /10950 resistance

10150 / 9850 support

The market expected the FOMC might rate cut incoming monetary policy decision after tonight, and the bitcoin price is looking go up. Incoming, we have to look at the Dow future fell, the bitcoin price and cryptocurrencies would move upward. If Dow future rise, please aware the bitcoin price go down.

 

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