We downgrade Hektar to HOLD from BUY with a lower fair value (FV) ofRM0.67/unit (from RM0.71/unit previously) based on our revised dividend discount model (DDM), which incorporates a 3% premium from an unchanged 4-star ESG rating (Exhibits 6 & 7)
The FV implies a FY24F distribution yield of 7%, 1 standard deviation below its 5-year median of 8%.
The lower FV stems from the lowering of FY24F/FY25F distributable income by 2%/8% to account for slower-than- expected recovery of rental reversions and occupancy rates in Subang Parade as well as increased finance cost.
Hektar’s FY23 distributable income of RM29mil came in below our expectation, 9% below our forecast.
The variance to our forecast was mainly due to lower-than- expected revenue as a result of negative rental reversion for most of its malls in FY22.
In FY23, Hektar’s net property income (NPI) rose 2% YoY despite a 5% YoY drop in gross revenue. The reduced revenue was mitigated by lower property operating cost as a result of the implementation of group-wide cost optimisation program. However, its adjusted distributable income decreased 21% YoY, exacerbated by increased finance cost.
QoQ, Hektar’s 4QFY23 revenue slid 1% while NPI declined 9%, mainly attributable to higher utilities expenses.
Hektar declared its gross distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.3 sen in 4QFY23, which represents a 12-month trailing distribution yield of 7.9%.
YoY, FY23 average occupancy rate increased 5%-points to 87% , with an improvement in all its retail malls.
Hektar has registered a positive reversion of 0.2% in FY23, mainly due to positive reversions at Kulim Central, Segamat Central and Mahkota Parade .
For FY24F, we expect a flattish rental reversion as Hektar needs to offer more competitive rental rates in its underperforming malls, particularly Subang Parade, to retain existing tenants and attract new retail businesses.
Hektar’s FY25F distribution yield stands at 7.4%, which appears unattractive when compared to its 2-year pre- pandemic (FY18-19) average of 8%. Hence, we see limited upside potential in this stock.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....