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SPTOTO - Have we seen the multi-decade bottom?

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Mon, 20 May 2024, 02:09 PM

I own SPTOTO with a Position Size of 3.1% capital, slightly larger than my neutral position size for this type of chart.  I went in too early near RM2 3 years ago, but fortunately it was a small position, allowing me to buy more at lower prices.  My average entry is 1.53 excluding dividends and 1.40 including dividends.  My last buy was RM1.32.  I was looking for lower prices to get a position size of 3.5% capital, but it didn't trigger.  Still, no major drama, for this type of move, position size is more important than the exact entry price - whether it is 1.4, 1.3 won't matter too much if it gets to 2.

My trade thesis back then as I averaged down from 2 down to 1.32 is over the bigger time-frame, I thought we were near (a wide)  accumulation zone, based on the long term chart over 3 decades. See below  
- Potential double bottom at 1.23 zone over 2 decades apart.
- The bottom in 2023 is a higher bottom than the 1998 low i.e. this stock is not yet dead.
- Instead, the fall looks legit initially near the peak, but looks overdone near the bottom, relative to pessimistic valuations.

Fundamentally, the business is still solid, even if some states imposed bans, and there are higher online with other competition.  In a bull run and a better economy with higher disposable income, the whole gaming industry stands to benefit, including SPTOTO.  At the bottom, it paid a sustainable 6% dividend yield, and at today's price of RM1.55, assuming an average sustainable DPS of 10 sen over the next 3-5 years, it will still pay over 6% per annum, higher than EPF rate in dividend yield alone (with any price gains a bonus).  If the multi-decade bottom is indeed printed, then, the resulting price gains in the coming 1-5 years should be bigger than the 6% dividend yield.  

So, I like the odds of the price action in the coming year/s, when the 2nd low this year is higher than the first low last year.  It showed buyers and it showed market thinks the fall is overdone.  Hence, I believe majority odds we'll see RM2 before end of FYE2025 if not earlier.  

Another reason to be bullish is the bear trap in April 2024.  So, the next path of least resistance should now be up and we saw that today.  It is also one of the laggard stocks that haven't moved up much yet in this bull market, hence, we can reasonably expect in a bull market for other stocks to catch up.  As Buffet says - a rising tide raise all boats.

Disclaimer:  As usual, you are fully responsible for your investment decisions.  In particular know your reasons to enter and your reasons to exit the trade.

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DividendGuy67

After my post, SPTOTO posted a good Mar 2024 (Qtr3) results. TTM EPS improved, which bodes well for upcoming dividends. I think 10 sen is safe, i.e. another 2 sen dividend. At an average buy cost of 1.53, that equals 6.6% dividend yield on cost, which is nice, excluding future price gains. I think the bias is on the upside for future earnings, which will be nice for future dividend growth too. If we have caught the multi-decade bottom, there's nothing much more than we can do as we have bought ourselves a future annuity income stream (via dividends) that should keep growing over time, providing us with alternative passive income stream that is superior than FD or EPF.

2024-06-09 22:00

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