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UMC - Entry Filled, What's Next?

DividendGuy67
Publish date: Mon, 29 Jul 2024, 07:47 PM

On 4 July, I posted this article on UMC here.  

  • I identified the Accumulation Zone as between 62 to 63 sen.
  • After posting, I entered a GTC Buy Order at 63 sen, at the accumulation zone.  

Today, 25 days later, my GTC Buy Order was filled at 63 sen.

  • My position sizing remains small, less than 1% capital.
  • This is necessary to avoid accumulation risk.   Accumulation risk arises when you have several open trades on the same side, in Bursa, I only trade from the long side and so my portfolio is exposed to lower prices, hence, important to keep this small.  

So, what's next?  Here's what I see.

In my article, I mentioned it is important to be precise when trading UMC, because the time-frame is shorter instead of the long term investing.  With shorter time-frames, I cannot use Monthly nor Weekly charts, and have to use Daily charts.   

When trading in shorter time-frames (which I don't recommend, because this is no longer stepping over 1 foot hurdle - more like jumping over 2-3 foot hurdles), I use the standard RSI indicator.  

  • It is comforting that when I didn't look, the buy trade was executed when RSI was oversold, at Support zone.
  • This gives me some comfort that I have bought close to bottom, but no guarantees.  Say 70% chance.

Where is the next Sell Zone?

It's still developing, because the swing is not yet final.  Tentatively, maybe 71 sen.  If hit 71 sen, that's a profit of 71 / 63 = 12.7% gross before transaction costs.  It's not that great for a swing trade, but not that bad either if can fill this within 1-2 months.

If price makes a lower low, then, the chart will be redrawn, and the next sell zone will change.

Summary and Conclusion

I'll check the chart again later.  If the bottom of the swing is around 62 sen, I won't update the chart as it's not material.   However, if price crashes below that (30% chance), then, I'll update it again.

For ease of trading, assuming majority chance Support will hold, I have already queued to sell half at 71 sen for convenience.

As an aside, I don't watch intraday price ticks.

Disclaimer:  As usual, you are solely responsible for your own trading and investing decisions.




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