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KLCI waves
KLCI waves 87 - IS KLCI HIT THE LOW YET ?
hotstock1975
Publish date: Sun, 05 Dec 2021, 11:44 PM
hotstock1975
0 101
Elliot wave analysis to measure price behavior for projecting next price actions
Monthly Time Frame
To recap from session 82, KLCI had made an attempt to penetrate 1610 but failed and retraced below 1566 again. These was indicating that weakness was still ahead for a month at least. Currently, we would see it would consolidate within a bigger range in between 1494 and 1610. No doubt that 1610 was still the major resistance to watch if KLCI need to advance upward convincingly.
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For the past one month, KLCI continued to move lower to test and stay above the lower range of 1494. Therefore, 1494 is still the major support to watch.
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On wave counts perspective, Primary Wave 1 could be formed after 5 Higher Degree of Impulsive Bull Waves had been structured from March to Dec 2020. No doubt that Primary Wave 2 correction is underway which expected to be a prolong waves unless a unknown catalyst emerged to re-write the extension waves within. Therefore, smaller time frame would be monitor closely for any unexpected waves incurred. Subsequent minor waves would be elaborated further in daily time frame.
To reiterate, the Double Top Formation (DB range) structure formed in between July 2014 and April 2018 could be overwritten by Primary Wave 3 Bull Run when Primary Wave 2 Correction end.
The new Super Cycle Bull Wave is still valid and expecting some knee jerk reactions along the prolong cycle.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Monthly levels listed below was broken:
Resistance : 1510-1514, 1524, 1533, 1538, 1566, 1601.65, 1610, 1627, 1643
Support : 1500, 1494, 1465
Weekly Time Frame
To recap from prior session 86, selling momentum continued after 2 weeks of consolidation and broke down from the consolidation range. Besides that, the last immediate support 1515 was breached as well which indicated there could be continuous selling pressure in coming weeks. No doubt that, the prior gap down created was still enforcing weaknesses and caution was required until a solid reversal to cover up the gap.
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For the past one week, KLCI continued to move downward after breaching 1515. Even it was able to close above 1500 after tested 1491, the momentum is still weak and will retest to breach 1500 for achieving lower level. Therefore, the next critical support will be 1484. Let's check the temperature of the trend.
TREND indicators
1) -DMI (red line) continued heading up with greater margin indicates bear strength is increasing with greater pace and penetrated above R1 indicates bear may continue.
2) +DMI (blue line) continued heading down with greater margin indicates bull strength is decreasing with greater pace.
3) ADX (pink line) curved up implying that the volatility of the current trend is increasing but still low and weak.
Therefore, the summations of the 3 signals above is still implying Bear strength is in favor. -DMI has crossed above +DMI for the fifth week with -DMI penetrated above R1 indicating the Bear strength is getting stronger. Besides that, ADX showing sign of the volatility of current trend is getting stronger but still weak and not firmed yet. Since Gap Down levels are still yet to be tested, I am still expecting KLCI to be consolidating in between revised ET1 and ET2 in Medium Term which bias to the downside as any rebound would not be as solid trend reversal. Therefore, caution is still required unless Gap (1545.99-1559.66) is able to be closed OR revised ET1 or 1610 could be penetrated to the upside CONVINCINGLY.
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From wave count perspective, the Higher Degree of Correction wave would be prolong with Multiple WXYXZ complex waves before a new set of Higher Degree of Bull Wave take place. Besides that, wave D has been justified to end at 1604.98 and wave E might be in its way to the downside. Therefore, Wave Z is still not been realized yet. Subsequent minor waves would be elaborated further in daily time frame.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Weekly levels listed below was broken:
Resistance - 1633, 1642, 1650, 1700, 1720
Immediate Resistance - 1505, 1515, 1524, 1531, 1538, 1546-1560 (Gap), 1564, 1571, 1575, 1580, 1590, 1595, 1600, 1610, 1615, 1619, 1627
Immediate Support - 1500, 1484-1488
Support - 1474-1476, 1466, 1452, 1447, 1436, 1407
Daily Time Frame
To recap from session 86, new catalyst had initiated another selling after 2 weeks of consolidation and broke down below SP line emerged. On wave counts perspective, wave D had been revised which ended at 1613.35 and formed by sub minuette wave abc as labelled. If it was valid, wave E had currently started with the existing sub minuette waves 1-2-3-4 and wave 5 were being structured with few possible targets as labelled.
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For the past one week, KLCI has once attempted to return above SP line but failed and initiated another minor gap down. It indicates that weakness is still ahead with consistent momentum to the downside. Even the sub minuette wave 5 has met the complete counts, the target of sub minuette wave 5 has exceeded the first minimum criteria of 1501 and expecting sub minuette wave 5 could be extended to lower lever to meet the remaining possible downside target to achieve 5th wave extension.
As usual, i am still leaving Wave Z alone since the assumption of new corrective wave above is still yet to be justified with wave E is still in the run unless there is an new catalyst to drive KLCI to penetrate above ET1 or 1610 Convincingly for new wave structure.
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To reiterate, Wave Z could be formed in various correctives wave structure (Zig-Zag, Flat, Diagonal and etc) with momentum changes.
Since Multiple Complex Wave emerged, the new set of Higher Degree of 5 Waves Bull Run or Primary Wave 3 have yet to be seen until all corrective waves are served convincingly unless Wave X1 (1646.24) is penetrated. Thus, Higher Degree of Correction is still being prolong by these Multiple Complex Waves WXYXZ.
All waves' count and projected target are generated based on past/current price level and it may be subjected to vary if degree of momentum movement change.
Prevailing trend could be emerged if Daily levels listed below was broken:
Resistance - 1639, 1645, 1650, 1662, 1679, 1685, 1700, 1720
Immediate resistance - 1505, 1510-1511, 1515, 1522-1518, 1531, 1537, 1543, 1545.99 (Lower Gap), 1556-1557, 1559.66 (Upper Gap) ,1566, 1570, 1573, 1581, 1590-1593, 1599-1602, 1608-1610, 1615, 1620, 1625-1628
Immediate Support - 1500, 1495, 1490, 1484-1488
Support - 1475 , 1461-1466, 1452, 1435
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Patient is required for the SUPER CYCLE Bull Run.
=================================================================================
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