Investing: Know Everything

Safety Margin (安全系数)

YOLO123
Publish date: Wed, 11 Nov 2020, 12:31 PM
YOLO123
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Investing: Know Everything is a page that share lots of investing knowledge, especially on a company's fundamental. However, some technical analysis will also be included if necessary, making the page more approachable to all investors.

More information, visit: https://www.facebook.com/InvestingKnowEverything/

The writer believes that when investors see great companies that sided with high valuation or PE ratio, it is always so tempted to buy that stock. However, do remember that a stock won’t worth an infinite amount, there is always an intrinsic value for a stock. Investors can also argue that the company’s future is very bright that when they earn more in the future, the PE ratio will be dragged down to a reasonable amount. Having a good imagination and belief is a good thing when investing, but never let it affect your judgement.

 

Take a look at TESLA, it went to their peak price at USD 498 (price after share splitting). However, their PE ratio by that time is over a 1000 times, and you will need to bear the paper loss when it dropped to around USD 330. If investors are more patient, they are able to buy the stock at a much cheaper price, where it is so low that the price was never met in the next few months. Furthermore, it is better to buy after their result has been released, as their PE ratio dropped and have something to prove to the investors that they can be profitable, even in the future.

 

Investors will then ask, if we wait every stock to drop until their intrinsic value, or else we won’t buy, wouldn’t we missed out some high potential stocks? To be honest, we will obviously miss some stocks that may continue their uptrend and skyrocket. However, although we missed that chance, it does not lead you to lose money, but grabbing a wrong chance do. The writer would rather prefer to buy a stock at their reasonable price, rather than chasing those that has immense valuation. Always remember, “it is less painful for investors to not make money, than losing money.”

 

笔者相信当投资者看到高估值的好公司时,总会有想冲进去的冲动。但是,笔者也曾经说过一个股总有它的合理价,更不可能值一个天数。当然,投资者也可以说此公司有很好的未来,而当未来的赚幅大大提升时,它的估值便会被拉低到合理的地步。对此笔者想说的是拥有好的想象力以及信任是投资路上不可缺少的,但是这并不能影响你的判断。

 

我们拿特斯拉 (TESLA) 来分析,它的股价曾经飙升到498美金 (拆股后的价钱)。但是,它当时的估值已经超过了1000倍,而且投资者必须承受他过后跌倒330美金的账面损失。如果投资者有足够的耐心,他们便能够再更低价买到这家公司,此低价是低到过后的几个月都不曾达到的低点。除此之外,在业绩出炉后才买入公司的股份会是比较好的选择,因为如果赚幅足够高,它的估值将被大大拉低而也能给予投资者它们能在未来保持赚幅的信心。

 

投资者或许会问,如果每个股我们都等到他们达到合理价再入场,那岂不会是错过很多高潜力的股票吗?说实话,这是当然的,毕竟一些股会继续他们的上升趋势而股价一飞冲天。但是,就算失去了这个机会,我们也并不会亏钱,但抓错机会却会让我们有机会蒙受亏损。比起高估值的公司,笔者会更倾向于买在公司的合理价上。要记得:“对投资者来说,亏钱会比少赚一些钱来得更痛。”

 

 

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