My Market Observations
Hope, Fear and Greed Personified in Plantation Stocks
Unless you have been living in a cave, you would have noticed that the stock markets have been tumbling all across the globe. Bursa had a brutal week with the KLCI Index dropping 2.85% for the week while the Dow jones Industrial tumbled 4.5%. The biggest fear gripping the markets are fears of rising interest rates that could eventually lead to a recession worldwide.
So a lot of debate on whether plantation stocks can be an outperformer in this market selloff since the root of inflationary fears this time around is mainly sparked by food inflation. The market seems to be saying no judging by the price action of plantation stocks since the start of the month. in fact the velocity of the selloff has caught many off guard.
Constant promotion of plantation stocks by a certain 'Guru' has been overbearing
I have been a constant reader and fan of I3 for over 7 years but have only recently been starting to write as I feel the need to express my observations and also to share some of my knowledge. So I3 forum has always been one of my first websites I go to when I start my day as I do find it is a very useful platform to get information and exchange of NEW ideas.
However in recent times it feels more like the repeat of a bad movie with a certain individual behaving like the forum belongs to only him. What is the purpose of repeating the same facts over and over again? AND I DO MEAN OVER AND OVER AGAIN!
It reminds me of cult personalities like David Koresh who use the same tactics of brainwashing his disciples using religion or even how a Macau scam operator preying on their victims using fear tactics!
Capitalizing on hope, fear and greed of individual investors
With the rise of food prices worldwide it is understandable and purely logical to deduce that CPO prices will rise and remain high. likewise plantation stocks should by the same logic do well until they price in the positives. So let's just take TSH Bhd's price moves as a base case scenario.
So this Guru started promoting TSH very early on to his credit. He was very right when the price was at RM1.09 in February 2022. CPO prices started moving up exponentially from that point and the plantation stocks moved along in tandem nicely. So the HOPE part of the equation is born. Optimism is alive and well.
So all along the way he advocates a buy till it reaches a high of RM1.89 in April while another heavily promoted counter JTiasa reaches RM1.28 he recommends that his readers bet the ranch or buy kaw kaw as this is a 'sure thing' going to reach RM3.00 for both TSH and JTiasa by year end! Enter the GREED phase!
Is this really a responsible way promoting stocks which are deemed a risky investment asset class? Seeing that he claims he has many die hard followers and he has an impeccable track record? To begin with there are no sure things in life except death and taxes. That is a FACT!
Using strong selling phrases like buy kaw kaw and chun chun calls or having certitude This appeals to the retail crowd whom many have FOMO. If one is a responsible Guru, he should always put a caveat on any investment advise like a risk management plan or stop loss policy. Some might argue on hindsight it was easy to say that an all in buy call at RM1.89 was not bad since we would not be able to call a top but I would say if a stock has already gone up 70% in a a span of 3 months that one should be wary on chasing it or one should buy on a retracement only,
Welcome to the FEAR phase
So TSH has dropped from a high of RM1.89 to the current level of RM1.24. Now fear and disbelief is starting to set in. That's a drop of 35% in a short time of 6 weeks. Does not feel like a sure thing does it? Even though one might say that its just paper losses but I assure you being down 35% is not a pleasant to any investor, let alone many who are not millionaires. That's why giving advise to buy kaw kaw is so flawed as one should always have good risk management like having a cut loss policy or having funds to dollar cost average.
What is really happening in the markets?
So playing the blame gain is easy when things don't go well. Dirty Investment banks with call warrants, manipulators etc. To start with not all plantation companies have call warrants but all have seen similar or even bigger magnitude sell offs like JTiasa and Subur Tiasa.
The simple reason is that the market sentiment is just bad. Many investors are shunning stocks and are taking money off the table and when that happens the best performers in the market will also not be spared.
Furthermore there is a big fear that demand will eventually be crippled by high commodity prices. In fact CPO prices have started to come down and closed below RM6000 per tonne on Friday, dropping 8% for the week.
To give you an example of how things can look if a fear of a recession happens, look at 2008 . The last time CPO price hit an all time high was in March 2008 at RM4486 while crude oil was trading at USD120 per barrel. By December 2008 CPO price was trading at RM1400 while crude slumped to USD40! As you will remember September 2008 was when the subprime market blew up.
What should Investors do now?
I am not a guru so i cannot advise you on that. However I do believe in risk management especially not risking more that 5% of my capital in a certain trade idea or cutting loss if a stock drops more than 15%. I also believe in taking profits when they are outsized and when there are warning signs driven by price charts. Good luck and stay strong my fellow I3 investors!
More articles on My Market Observations
Rex Bhd is a laggard in the Food and Beverages Sector but may not be for much longer?
Created by skoh888 | Jun 02, 2022
Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 55 comments
Commodities price operate based on supply and demand.
Stock market on fear and greed.
Can anyone time the market?
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
2022-06-12 14:15
sslee.....read the article properly. It's not about timing the market. It's about putting in risk management system and not buy blindly with no plan. Get it??
2022-06-12 14:19
I would also add that buying when everyone is fearful has always worked well....however fear levels can reach extremes before market bottoms.....that's the difficult part
2022-06-12 14:21
no...hope in the stock market is not based on faith and ignorance...maybe that's yours
2022-06-12 14:22
hope is when you buy with the excitement that something great is going to happen....then when it happens it turns into greed and then when things burn it turns to fear
2022-06-12 14:24
BTW why do you have Chow Yun Fatt's face in your profile? you obviously don't look anything like him....unless you love God of The Gambler movies so much hence the faith
2022-06-12 14:26
Hahahaha,
Chow Yun Fatt photo is just to remind me, you do not need to be Warren Buffett to use his quote or make money from the market.
something great is going to happen....FAITH
then when it happens it turns into greed and then when things burn it turns to fear....IGNORANCE
2022-06-12 14:39
skoh888 big bro...
I am pretty sure you didn't pen this article out of pure ultruism...it's more of venting your unbridled frustration...probably you lose big time betting on these stocks promoted by this certain person which is the target of your article.Well,if that's the case...it's a manifestation of your own greed...nothing more..nothing less!!.
2022-06-12 15:30
Keep on writting,
You are not wrong looking at stock prices movement based on human emotion but sooner or later you need to look into fundamental factors that drive stock prices based on a company's earnings and profitability from producing and selling goods and services.
2022-06-12 20:33
demand destruction will be across the board.
non food items like gloves will be especially hard hit.
Treat all revenue growth forecasts especially gloves as fantasy.
6.3 million people died from covid
no company will be spared even plantations
if you buy, must hold
2022-06-12 22:27
Spot on ! a leap of faith in investment is a sure thing of putting your head on a chopping board (Chinese proverb). Try to get the msg instead of this intentions. Essentially he is telling to let the profit run n cut the losses short . Ur advice is appreciated . Maybe u can be generous enuf to share how u overcome personal psychology n diffuculty in execution.
@Skoh888 No risk management or no caveat emptor is like a man jumping into the sea with no life jacket on
2022-06-13 03:10
Think like this
Director Tan Aik Pen bought Tsh at Rm1.09 we followed him buy
He bought all the way up Rm1.79 we followed him buy
Now Tsh at Rm1.24 what happened to Director Tan Aik Pen?
He also no life jacket ?
And at Rm1.64 another Director Tan Aik Yong bought 16 million shares
He also no life jacket?
Listen :
A value investor buy because of Value
If he has established the intrinsic value of Tsh to be Rm2.00 and above he dares to buy as long as prices are below Rm2.00
So after buying at Rm1.79 and price corrected he is not afraid to buy more as prices get cheaper he gets even more value
There is no such thing as cutting loss if you are investing longer term if you know what you are doing
Unless you are not sure and only do short term trading
This is the difference between successful long term investing (only 10% succeed) and traders (90% who will consistently lose money)
2022-06-13 08:04
@Calvintan....that's why you are in the 10% category with such great long term picks like NETX! I also own TSH but my average price is nothing like yours through risk management
2022-06-13 08:55
You are a narcissist who just needs to be glorified and be right. I am mostly wrong but I just wanna be profitable unlike u
2022-06-13 08:57
No.
You forgot other buy calls of Calvin
Texchem
Ancom
Bonia
Ijmplant
Bplant
Nylex
Opcom
All the Ogse bull run 2019
Dayang, Penergy, Uzma and Carimin
All the glove bull run (2020)
Supermax , Topglove, Kossan others
Why you conveniently forget all the Super buys of those bulk success time?
2022-06-13 09:12
This is the simple truth
Nothing to be proud of
Of course I made wrong calls as well but please do not cherry pick
See all in it's true context
I have been in i3 forum since Sept 2013 and people who are reasonably minded can see
2022-06-13 09:23
so what if you have been here since 2013? you own the forum? Many here have been investing longer than you...arrogant
2022-06-13 09:25
There is a saying
"Great minds talk about ideas. Good minds talk about things.
Weak minds talk about people
2022-06-13 09:27
Name-calling is a form of argument in which insulting or demeaning labels are directed at an individual or group.
2022-06-13 09:32
Not productive to engage in a game of semantics. ppl will know which methods suit them best. I wan to pose a Q what would happen to our mkt n in particular TSH if Japanese Yen depreciate to 150-180 to one US $ ?
2022-06-13 10:42
Hi beginner 777...well JPY does not really have any bearing on plantation earnings....the more sensitive pair would be USD/RM......if RM depreciates vs USD like in 1998 then CPO prices should go up provided there is no demand destruction...
2022-06-13 11:28
great article! good points and rightfully calling out a con artist. Kudos
2022-06-13 16:09
The article is well written because it serves as a good warning to newbies who innocently come to i3 forum and follow these so called sifus and get burnt badly. Then that turns them away from becoming investors which the market sorely needs
2022-06-13 18:25
I miss the days when i3 used to have such prolific and honest writers like ICON888 and KCCHONG. Hopefully SKoh888 will continue to write and bring i3 back to its good old days
2022-06-13 18:27
I believe what Calvin really wants to say isn’t about buying any counter on whatever premise (TA, FA, worldwide scenario…)
I believe he’s saying protect your capital
2022-06-13 18:42
VTrade
Belum fear la
Ppl fear wont muncul in forum
^
How true is this based on my observation in 2020 March crash.
2022-06-13 19:22
Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥
All the buy calls by Calvin are just to hype up the stocks he has taken position in. Just look at Netx. He cannot change, nor can we expect him to change. So much for all the religious insinuations in his posts.
Be truthful and post with the right intentions.
2022-06-13 19:59
You need to take everything you read in i3 with a pinch of salt because every writer only tell you one side of the story with exaggeration.
So happy reading and writing.
2022-06-14 08:51
@sherlockman...thank you for the kind words and encouragement. Totally agree with you on the lack of good writers nowadays as they have their own agendas of misleading and conning poor newbies
2022-06-14 08:56
Exodus 19 -
At Mount Sinai
8 The people all responded together, “We will do everything the Lord has said.” So Moses brought their answer back to the Lord.
9 The Lord said to Moses, “I am going to come to you in a dense cloud, so that the people will hear me speaking with you and will always put their trust in you.” Then Moses told the Lord what the people had said.
10 And the Lord said to Moses, “Go to the people and consecrate them today and tomorrow. Have them wash their clothes
11 and be ready by the third day, because on that day the Lord will come down on Mount Sinai in the sight of all the people.
18 Mount Sinai was covered with smoke, because the Lord descended on it in fire. The smoke billowed up from it like smoke from a furnace, and the whole mountain[b] trembled violently.
19 As the sound of the trumpet grew louder and louder, Moses spoke and the voice of God answered him.
20 The Lord descended to the top of Mount Sinai and called Moses to the top of the mountain. So Moses went up
IF these events can be proven wrong (is a fairy tales), then the Bible can be forgotten.
The Commandments were given to Moses. The people have the clinical death even before the 2nd Commandment. There were great fear among the people, thick cloud, smoke, shaking violently
2022-06-14 12:26
BTW, the father-in-law of Moses is Jethro.
Exodus 18 -
Jethro Visits Moses
7 So Moses went out to meet his father-in-law and bowed down and kissed him.
(Do we kiss our fathers-in-law?)
Jethro suggested to Moses to delegate his heavy duty alone to his people..
14 When his father-in-law saw all that Moses was doing for the people, he said, “What is this you are doing for the people? Why do you alone sit as judge, while all these people stand around you from morning till evening?”
15 Moses answered him, “Because the people come to me to seek God’s will. 16 Whenever they have a dispute, it is brought to me, and I decide between the parties and inform them of God’s decrees and instructions.”
17 Moses’ father-in-law replied, “What you are doing is not good. 18 You and these people who come to you will only wear yourselves out. The work is too heavy for you; you cannot handle it alone. 19 Listen now to me and I will give you some advice, and may God be with you. You must be the people’s representative before God and bring their disputes to him. 20 Teach them his decrees and instructions, and show them the way they are to live and how they are to behave. 21 But select capable men from all the people—men who fear God, trustworthy men who hate dishonest gain—and appoint them as officials over thousands, hundreds, fifties and tens. 22 Have them serve as judges for the people at all times, but have them bring every difficult case to you; the simple cases they can decide themselves. That will make your load lighter, because they will share it with you. 23 If you do this and God so commands, you will be able to stand the strain, and all these people will go home satisfied.”
24 Moses listened to his father-in-law and did everything he said.
The principle of delegation in a society/organization was firstly learned from Jethro..
2022-06-14 13:11
I always avoid articles that include quotations which are religious in nature. Reason being... "What Is There To Prove or support your views being tight or wrong . Readers are mindful of the truth ,as time goes by .
2022-06-14 16:37
this is why i3 is crap. full of nonsense, finger pointing n chat shit... move on to other platform better. find better community to surround urself with...
2022-06-14 22:08
Why U curse n condemn i3 like i3 is your biggest enemy ! All in i3 are free to express their opinion including U lah.
2022-06-15 09:34
baseless cursing and shaming without basis is disgusting. Go around other threads on i3 and you can see it all over. These are valid points raised and if you don't get it's either you did not take comprehension lessons or you are just another die hard koresh follower like so many
2022-06-15 09:52
Tak tau sini pun ada talk
Unicorn
2020 itu fear ini post blog belum keluar.
1998 thanos buat separuh ppl hilang bukan sekadar fear
2022-06-26 00:08
risk and fear are the same , the weapon is timing , and the master is discipline....
-The J ? (2022) -
2022-06-26 01:09
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
skoh888
I did give credit where credit is due like the guru's call to buy at RM1.09 in February
2022-06-12 13:48