Important time-tested proven market rules or tips
Jaks - Cup And Handle Chart Formation will form once the share price of Jaks crossed 1.43
OTB
Publish date: Sat, 08 Feb 2020, 10:19 PM
Dear valued readers,
Please look at the technical chart of Jaks nicely, do you know that the chart pattern is called "Cup And Handle Chart Formation" ?
It is very important for the share price of Jaks to cross 1.43 and closes above 1.43, then the share price of Jaks will skyrocket up the roof once the share price stays above 1.43.
Cup And Handle Chart Formation is ready to be formed once the share price of Jaks breaks above 1.43.
The unit 1 of the power plant of Jaks in Vietnam is ready to produce electricity commercially in March 2020, unit 2 will produce electricity commercially in May 2020.
I believe foreign funds will come in to buy up Jaks shares after the power plant is producing electricity commercially.
The reasons why the foreign investors buy power plant 6 months ahead
- Power generation business is unlike other businesses which depends on supply and demand. There is a big variations on product pricing and its cost.
- Power generation business is a contractual business with pricing and others stated upfront in the contract agreements.
- The risks are project delays and unexpected project costs overrun.
- Big Investors will not give a high PER during the early phases due to the aforesaid risks.
- Once the project runs smoothly and near completion, a higher PER will be accorded.
- I am not surprised a PER of 15 will be accorded to both Jaks and MFCB once it started its earning to sell electricity respectively.
- A steady future income or revenue and cash flow for both Jaks and MFCB with good contractual margins.
- The share price of MFCB moved up north rapidly in December 2019 (one month before the power plant in Laos produces electricity commercially in January 2020). I believe the share price of Jaks will follow the same price trend of MFCB.
I recommend to buy Jaks is due to the good prospect of the Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam.
FA report
- I assume all Malaysian operations to be zero value. Evolve Concept Mall is valued at RM300 million, I believe this amount of money is more than enough to cover all losses in Malaysian operations.
- FY 2019, I projected the profit after tax of 113 million. First nine months the total net profit is 91 million, I assume net profit of 22 million in Q4 2019.
- FY 2020, I projected the profit after tax of 150 million. 50 million is the construction profit from power plant and 100 million on the sale of electricity in 2020.
- FY 2021, I projected the profit after tax of 250 million from the sale of electricity only.
| Year | Price | PAT | EPS | PER | Target price | Gain % |
| 2019 | 1.38 | 113 | 0.18 | 7.85 | 1.80 | 30.43% |
| 2020 | 1.38 | 150 | 0.23 | 5.92 | 2.33 | 69.04% |
| 2021 | 1.38 | 250 | 0.39 | 3.55 | 3.89 | 181.74% |
I expect the share price of Jaks will move up north to 1.86 which is 161.8% of Fibonacci Projection. Please refer to the technical chart attached.
I believe the share price of Jaks will move up north in next week because Parabolic SAR had shown a buy signal on 7/2/2020.
Please watch up for this stock to explode in the very near future.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
Thank you.
Ooi
寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人
Disclaimer :
Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative.
Final decision to buy is always yours.
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Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020
Pls taking into account for shorterm oubreak from the wuhanv irus also as there are highly possible for Chineese engineers having difficulty to come back to the site after CNY holiday due to the outbreak.
However, the temporary set back may provide opportunity to add position for jaks.
2020-02-10 09:35
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
probability
Just using a gap of 2 years between the cumulative cash out flow of US$ 1.87 Billion spent for the Power Plant and the first recurring future cash in flow from electricity Sales....estimated annual cash in flow would be RM 1.3 Billion to obtain an IRR of 12% .
The IRR of 12% is derived at an extremely conservative annual plant utilization rate of 6500 hrs.
For sure JAKS will increase their stakes to 40%...and for sure the operating hours will exceed 7200 hrs as it was found for Vinh Tan 1..
..........
IRR increases by approximately 1.4% for every 300 hrs rise in utilization.
This was the reason, the IRR was estimated to be on the mid teens at the initial stage of the project before Andy acquired a partner (CPECC).
After that...there was no need to reveal its true potential.
2020-02-08 22:59