Is the worse of the stock market is approaching or the worse is almost over? 

As what we do everytime, the stock market are based upon fundamental or have the thinnest connection to reality and that even without massive imtervention and manipulation.

Stock market reflect the emotions of the participants---- it is nothing else? Any other connection like price earning ratio and all the other financial metrics are all illusional? Will you be screaming that your stock that has low PE drop back to new lows, and one of your favorite stock defy the laws and climb to new highs regardless of it's highly rated PE drop back to it's lowest price and shoot up sky rocket high again?

This is so bullish or so frightening? 

Before you go on please understand and reminded here again. This is not an investment advice , it's free and an amateur opinion and nothing else. 

With the stock market rally in the first two quarters of 2014, any discussion of a crash in 2014 strikes a cognitive dissonance. If the policy makers in major economies promising to keep interest rates to zero rate by 2099, or whatever dates signifies forever, the prospects of ever higher in every assets prices never seen brighter.

But the nagging question remains, if everything is so great, why does the Western major economies need to keep the interest rates near zero forever?

As the result, there are two mutually forecast floating around. One: The Great Bull Market will runs for years to come, so no worries, and Two: The market is exhibiting bubble like characteristics that presage another crash. 

So which forecast is likely the correct one?

Analyst from every stripe, fundamental, quantitative and technical pumps out of data and charts to support one forecast and another, and economist of behavioral, macro and its weigh in with their prognostication as well. All sorts of complexities are spun with a by product of producing results and research that are worth paying for and is all become as clear as....mud.

Without getting too fancy, we can't help but to notice that this phrase is characterized by steeply ascending Bull Market that last around five years. This then collapse and retrace most of the previous rise within a period of time. 

The reason why these Bull phases only rise about five years are of course open for debate, but what is clear is that some causal factors arise at about the five years mark that cause the market to reverse sharply. The ensuing have lasted in between 2.5 years and 1.5 years. I believe its only three advances and two declines to me, but the regularity of these advances and declines is noteworthy. 

According to the charts of broader major indices,  there are nothing to explain the highs and lows in the stock market has become so exaggerated in the new normal scenario. 

Many have attempted to correlate key dynamics of the US and the global economy to the stock market gyrations. There's a handful of indications are often offered up as important for the Major market. That is Bond market, TLT Japanese yen, gold and the US dollars. Now comes another oil price.

If there are some correlation between the SPX and TLT, that's isn't very visible. How about the Japanese yen? Once again there are no correlation to the indexes that is obvious enough to be useful. Some know the gold and yen is tightly correlated, but as we all know correlation are not causation, which means that some underlying causes could be causing the yen and gold to act on similar fashion. Then the US and yen? Yet again now.The oil prices? Now serves a new correlation but no concrete prove to forecast a continuation of bull and bear market in the longer term view.

In other cases the problems with correlation is they can end without a warning. Since neither one can forecast a continuing Bull or crash. 

While it is interesting to correlate on multiple levels, this cyclical data points are rather sparse for decision on whether to sell or hold major positions in the stock market. And they did not provide any forecast of the amplitude of any high and low.

Forecasting in advance that the last years beyond this five years of advancing pattern is equivalent to forecasting the phrase is now ending and the beginning of a much longer Bull advances is beginning. This may be bold to tell now, as there's little historical data to give it much weight.

Or stripped of complexity, the chart suggest the current run has toped up and retraced most to the advance from 2009.

The significant crash in 2014. But who dared to determine the likelihood of a crash similar magnitude to 2000-2002 and 2008- 2009 and why a strategy of selling risky asset into the strength and holding cash until the income producing assets go on sale seems prudent at this time?

I don't think so. Unless I didn't see any interventions coming from those who created this mess and either act or show an initiative/massive intervention of another round of new quantitative products to feed on the hungry rich and their cronies.

Who knows?

Till then. 

P/s: The nation is poor precisely because it has been ruled by narrow minded elite that has organized the society for their own benefits at the expense of the vast mass of people. Sounds like any country you know?

# if your hard earned money is managed by the right people and the right entity, no bears can get near you.