Sslee blog
How to value INSAS?
Dear all,
I wish I have an answer to Philip’ sharp mind and acid tongue critical of INSAS: Please explain clearly why cash rich company selling warrants and doing cash call?
Very simple: You own INSAS for 3 years you should be able to explain very clearly what is happening. Why undervalue company with hundreds of millions of cash is taking advantage of minority shareholders instead of helping them?
Very simple: You own INSAS for 3 years you should be able to explain very clearly what is happening. Why undervalue company with hundreds of millions of cash is taking advantage of minority shareholders instead of helping them?
I will wait until the RI circular make available to shareholders and ask the Board the necessary of cash call RI:
Meanwhile many investors had give up on INSAS and label INSAS as value trap for beginner. I can understand their feeling and do not wish to dispute their claim.
I first bought 10,000 INSAS shares at RM 0.77 on 31/01/2017 and since then besides trading some had topped up INSAS and now my hlebroking portfolio inquiry show:
|
3379
|
1,345,000
|
0.8371
|
0.7600
|
1,125,899.50
|
1,022,200.00
|
-103,699.50
|
-9.21
|
I had penned below 2 blogs on INSAS:
I3 Investment Bloggers day: Love triangle (FA-BS-TA): intrinsic value of INSAS
INSAS Deep Value Investing: Assets value (liquid assets) and Earning play
Today I would like to borrow below article from felicity:
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Is this not the most undervalued stock? (Updated)
Monday, December 9, 2013
Looking at Inari to understand Insas (Revised)
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Insas: When the investor is not properly informed - felicity
In several of my earlier articles, I have mentioned of companies which holds their businesses in form of investments should be at the very least be measured using its book value.
In Buffett's Letter to Shareholder in 2011 Warren shared his thought on share repurchases, and book value valuation.
“We have no way to pinpoint intrinsic value. But we do have a useful, though considerably understated, proxy for it: per-share book value. This yardstick is meaningless at most companies. At Berkshire, however, book value very roughly tracks business values. That’s because the amount by which Berkshire’s intrinsic value exceeds book value does not swing wildly from year to year, though it increases in most years. Over time, the divergence will likely become ever more substantial in absolute terms, remaining reasonably steady, however, on a percentage basis as both the numerator and denominator of the business-value/book-value equation increase.”
My question should we took the standard definition of intrinsic value wholeheartedly: Intrinsic value is the Present value of the investment of all the expected cash flow over the lifetime discounted at the appropriate discount rate. Or question the definition why equity part of asset or at least the current assets minus total liabilities should be added to this intrinsic value?
In this case the intrinsic value of INSAS is Liquid assets – total liabilities + (CF1/ (1+d)^1) + (CF2/(1+d)^2) + ----- +(CFn/(1+d)^n)
-
Where:
-
CF = Cash Flow in the Period
-
d = Discount rate
-
n = The period number
-
This Intrinsic value is actually a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
-
Example of intrinsic value of INSAS is then the Sum of DCF expected cash flow from varies business streams.
-
For INSAS assets rich case, it is my opinion that the liquid assets minus total liabilities should be added to this intrinsic value.
What are the liquid assets of INSAS: Refer latest quarterly report:
As of expected cash flow from varies business streams:
I have my utmost respect for INSAS Board and Management for building up and accumulate so much wealth into INSAS Balance Sheet but I cannot understand why the Board and management did not do something to unlock INSAS values?
And I really do not know why INSAS is so undervalued: Closing price at 25/9/2020 of RM 0.76 value the whole of INSAS only at RM 0.76 X 663,006,342 = RM 503,884,819
When only one of it associate compannies: Inari closing price at 25/9/2020 of RM 2.25
|
Total (units)
|
554,853,575
|
|
Total (%)
|
17.04
|
|
Date of Notice
|
04-Aug-2020
|
Which is worth market value of RM 2.25 X 554,853,575= RM 1,248,420,543
I have said my thought and now you can start to beat me up.
Thank you
Note: During Q4 end 30/6/2020: INSAS sold 5,500,000 Inari shares for RM 9,369,500 cash.
For Q1 end 30/9/2020: INSAS so far already sold 55,000,000 Inari shares for RM 104,906,550 cash.
More articles on Sslee blog
Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 31 of 31 comments
Haha,
I thought I will be beaten to a pulp for promoting INSAS. Very surprise to get one like (TQVM for your encouragement) and one naysayer.
2020-09-28 08:39
At our age don’t stress our brain too much! Go for single product or single sector of business type of company.
2020-09-28 08:48
Dear CCCL,
Age is just a number. We must be young at heart and must not confined our thinking as our brain is limitless.
2020-09-28 09:11
Philip ( buy what you understand)
Dear sslee, you are still very welcome to have a nice discussion without acidity on telegram as we now have a staff working for inari to scuttlebutt information from.
In any case let me give you an example of business sense.
Forget about share price and shares for a minute. Imagine if your late grandfather has a huge business of timber, Palm oil, logistics and semiconductor etc. He passes away and gifts shares in the company to ask his children and grandchildren, yourself included. However, in this case your uncle and his family gets the controlling share of the company. He gets to appoint his children as directors, gets a salary every month, and gets director fees every year. They get to do whatever they want with the company, buy new businesses, each director gets a bmw, declare dividends to shareholders etc.
Herein lies the problem, being an unlisted company, you can only sell the shares amongst you. No one outside will buy it or can value it properly, because company accounts are kept by your uncle and only for directors and managers discretion. Knowing that no one outside will buy it, you have 1 of 2 options: sell it back to your uncle for a low low price, or sell it to your relatives for a lower price.
However, your relatives are not interested to buy it from you, and in fact are willing to sell their shares to you instead, simply because they have heard that your uncle is not able to grow the business your grandfather started, and if in fact selling it's profitable business in semiconductors to fund their lifestyle.
They have also gone into many loss making businesses, your cousin wanted to start a clothing line so your uncle indulged her. Her brother wanted to start a new car rental line, that was also indulged. Then your uncle's brother thought that biotech was the new future, sold more shares and raised cash for that business ( no earnings to date).
All this while, you are thinking, why are they not giving money to the other family members or declaring got earnings from buying core businesses that your grandfather started in semiconductors. And you are thinking, why don't they just buy everyone out fairly with the money in the company.
You see... Your uncle already owns the company. Why does he need to buy your shares?
2020-09-28 09:35
Good morning Philip,
You have improved on your story telling skill and your story is very compelling except INSAS is a public listed company and the current controlling shareholder Dato’ Sri Thong took over a near bankrupt company with negative shareholder fund and inject in stock broker firm. Thro’ prudent and conservative investment INSAS survive through 1997 Asian financial crisis with over hundred million of impairment losses, 2000 dotcom bubble, 2008 Lehman Brothers subprime crisis and now Covid-19 pandemic.
INSAS had growth slowly but surely and along the way INSAS has make some bad investments that did not killed them but their good investment Inari had helped INSAS to growth their others business and net worth to RM 1,750,354,000. So please give credit where credit is due.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/3379.jsp?type=last10fy
I do not wish to speculate about controlling shareholders and their family private life, my intention of this article in on valuation of INSAS.
Thank you
Note: I even joke with Dato’ Wong, I am waiting for warrants expired on 2020 and Inari RM 2.50 before I write to Halim Saad asking him to forget about taking over Plus just take over INSAS to make Billion.
Dato’ Sri Thong and PAC officially only hold 32.96% of INSAS.
2020-09-28 11:04
ss...the worse possible scenario .............so much money still ask for money.................so how now?
2020-09-28 12:12
Philip ( buy what you understand)
The valuation of insas? Yes paper value is 1.7 billion. So what?
But... It has as much utility to you as shareholders of insas as a giant block of gold hidden in the ground. Yes you know it's there, but will you be able to dig it up from the ground? No?
The only utility for you as a shareholder of insas is hoping that the management of insas is able to dig out this block of gold from the ground and hopefully... Just hopefully... Give you a little bit of it.
Sorry I think this post was a waste of time. While you want to keep
talking about valuation, how about the valuation of xinquan of 1 billion? What use is knowing that 1 billion is there if the management is doing actions that are not to the benefit of shareholders?
Meanwhile... A company that is inline with shareholder values, creates VALUE and has ever increasing dividends and assets and business is now worth RM10. Imagine that. If you had bought 670k barely a year ago in January... You would rm1 million today.
Storytelling indeed.
2020-09-29 12:29
Dear Philip,
Many people have advice me just vote with your feet and wise up.
CharlesT has this to say about me:
U r the only person so far i met in I3 who invested in share mkt not to make money but to fight with the co management... I guess u hv too much of money n time.
I invest in share market to make money too but when I make a wrong investment because of fraud or insiders wrongdoing, I will dig out more information and report to SC and Bursa to take actions so as to prevent others people from falling into the same trap.
But if my investment is based on solid/sound facts and figures (INSAS) I will put my money where my mouth is and trying my best to convey minority shareholders interest and concerned to the Board.
No storytelling but facts and figures.
2020-09-29 13:01
Philip ( buy what you understand)
I think I have done all I can to convince you on the value of investing in insas. In fact, the results already shows. I also have done my civic duty in telling you to avoid these kind of waste of money.
How many more years do you have to earn money? Do you really want to waste money for the sake of ego? Or do you think it is time to properly value companies not on the basis of accounts and annual reports, but on the basis of qualitative performance? It's been almost 2 years since my first post, you can compare the performance of my first 4 stocks since 2019
Public Bank 24.6
Ql 6.7
Topglove 5.6
Yinson 4.18
Versus
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/137236.jsp
When you are ready to learn how to make money and drop your ego, you are welcome any time. No ego, no insults, no making fun. Just simple and proper discussion.
Good luck in your investments.
2020-09-29 13:24
Dear Philip,
I have to admit I wish I am as good as you on investment but I am not. Hence I am learning from you and all the Sifu in i3 to improve my investing skill.
I do not have big ego and I’m readily admit my mistakes but INSAS has a special place in my heart as I am doing what I am doing is not for myself but for the 67% non-controlling shareholders.
I have direct contact with Dato’ Wong and trying my best to let him see minority shareholder' point of view. My only regret is not able to get to know controlling shareholder Dato’ Sri Thong as I very much like to meet him and have a good talk with him.
Once again your advice is taken with thanks.
2020-09-29 14:03
The problem of sslee is he is a sohai loh....!!
Insas has propose a good strategy to raise the share price of insas thru a PA rights issue & this sohai sslee when & oppose it loh...!!
He should use his brain to think & talk less not loh...!
Posted by Sslee > Sep 29, 2020 2:03 PM | Report Abuse
Dear Philip,
I have to admit I wish I am as good as you on investment but I am not. Hence I am learning from you and all the Sifu in i3 to improve my investing skill.
I do not have big ego and I’m readily admit my mistakes but INSAS has a special place in my heart as I am doing what I am doing is not for myself but for the 67% non-controlling shareholders.
I have direct contact with Dato’ Wong and trying my best to let him see minority shareholder' point of view. My only regret is not able to get to know controlling shareholder Dato’ Sri Thong as I very much like to meet him and have a good talk with him.
Once again your advice is taken with thanks.
2020-09-29 14:32
haha stockrider,
Still holding on your Netx? Remember to subscribe in full your entitlement.
2020-09-29 14:45
Haha qqq3,
Posted by qqq33333333 > Sep 29, 2020 2:12 PM | Report Abuse
and its their company................
Interest to make it our company by joining force to take-over INSAS?
2020-09-29 14:47
ss..............when was the last time people make money from stock broking shares? How come u go and buy not just Insas but also TA as well?
OLH of OSK long ago swap his OSK for RHB shares........That is called smart.................................
2020-09-29 20:46
nowadays brokerage commission cannot even make money in 2020 bull market..........bear market how?
2020-09-29 20:48
And a money printing machine in Inari.
Do you know what is Insas holding cost in Inari?
2020-09-29 21:15
never mind..........pay off your housing loan and use rest of money buy SCIB/ Kpower..............
2020-09-29 21:31
Inari? Who know what happens to chip supply chain when America attack China supply chain? even CCP don't know.........how can u buy Inari?
2020-09-29 21:33
Good morning qqq3,
I am debt free and cash rich. I like cash rich companies and avoid companies with high debt. I do learn how to vote with my feet and do my own investigation and research.
You must be careful on your comment.
qqq33333333 never mind..........pay off your housing loan and use rest of money buy SCIB/ Kpower..............
29/09/2020 9:31 PM
Someone threatened me with:
{We also noted from your emails that you have made frequent reference to and left your own remarks/comments on the https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/4723.jsp forum based on our responses provided to you.
Upon our further checks on the said forum, we noted that certain selected parts of our responses have been uploaded and posted on to the forum. We are concern in reading the posts in the forum as these may lead to misinterpretation, misleading statements and confusion amongst the readers, as these responses may have been modified and/or selectively posted on the forum (some responses from the company which were selectively posted may potentially lead to other meanings/interpretations as compared to the message that the company is conveying in its original full responses). There seems to be no accountability and boundaries of what is said in the forum by certain parties, some perhaps with ulterior motives. As this forum is not regulated by any authorities, we are concern that this may lead to investors taking advice from unlicensed advisors and be subject to manipulation which may result in these investors losing money.
As you have lodged a complaint with Bursa and the SC, we would also like to highlight this issue and urge the authorities to look into this matter}
I replied with a hard hitting rebuke and another official complaint to SC and Bursa.
2020-09-30 07:33
Dear Hidup-Anwar,
According to leno and stockraider:
Insas has propose a good strategy to raise the share price of insas thru a PA rights issue & this sohai sslee when & oppose it loh...!!
But if you ask my personal opinion then I can only speculate controlling shareholder and PAC only hold 32.96% just short of 0.04% of 33% threshold to make conditional MGO. For MGO the offeror need to show financial means to SC for such offer and beside if offer is make the BOD need to engage independent advisor to make a valuation of INSAS and advise shareholder whether to accept or reject the offer.
My guess is as good as you’re on what will be the BOD recommendation base on offer price is fair/unfair and reasonable/unreasonable.
So for a stop-gap measure the controlling shareholder will hold on and buy up warrants as his save deposit to prevent others from making a take-over.
2020-09-30 09:14
Haha qqq3,
Thank you for your recommendation. Recently I just employ about 250K from my hlebroking trading account buying Jon recommend LCTITAN a cash rich, turnaround, dividend giving and potential growth company
2020-09-30 12:04
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The conglomerate type of company is going down hill..cut loss and move on.
2020-09-27 15:22