>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I think closing ones mind off and having a confirmation bias is very dangerous.

But at the same time being too open minded and positive can lead to buying companies that have no path to profitability.

Like Peter lynch says, you don't have to be at ground zero. You can buy walmart ten years after IPO and still make a 500 bagger, after seeing ten years of growth results.

For me when applying my pikachu theory, the best time to go in is always only after the new story begins or they add new capabilities.

I bought Uniqlo at 44k yen, after a huge drop in April causing the share price to be affordable, but the company itself has been making headway versus h&m, inditex and other fast fashion companies with their online/offline concept paying dividends. Today it is 84k yen.

I bought stoneco at 20 back in 2019 due to their digital banking license approval and the growth of their business and added more at 52. Obviously as I told Frankie I sold 30% at 75 to keep a buffer for future drops... Today it is 84.

I bought palantir at 14 and 15 as they did their direct listing, and obviously after 17 years when they finally added some sales staff... Their price today is 26.

So the big secrets are to be an unwilling seller, to know the TAM and how much growth left to give, and to know where the profits are coming from in the future.

As my partnership now only has this 3 foreign stocks in our portfolio, it is highly focused.

Giving out dividend and withdrawals out to partners over the Xmas selling stne at 75 should give them an idea of the power of delayed gratification ( losing 10% by selling early instead of holding for a long period of time).

Philip Farms:

What are the big mental models?

Octopus effect. The idea of giving someone free things or a product of very high value and cheap rates, because it becomes a gateway or links into users paying money for other products in the ecosystem. Things like Google, most freemium online games, tencent, etc. Being sticky has its uses.

Look at the free products that everyone uses, WeChat, Instagram, Facebook, Gmail, Maps... Are they really free? Of course not, the key things to remember are extreme scalability and the ability to link users to the most important revenue: advertisement dollars.

Pikachu theory. Every growth company has a relatable company that went on the same growth path and has added new capabilities. Similar to how a Pikachu and raichu would have different abilities after "leveling up", so too do companies in the field. Using this comparative growth analysis, we can study growth patterns of companies like 

Olam---->Wilmar---->archer Daniels

Ql------> CP------> Tyson

Serbadk----->Schlumberger----->exxon

By investing in companies right after they have added new capabilities and new TAM, there is uncertainty of growth capabilities but backed with results that give confidence for future growth.

Super Mario effect. By framing investment losses as lessons to learn from instead of something to lose sleep at night, you will be able to change the mindset of losing into learning. By realizing that everything has a learning curve, and learning to handle stress, you can maximize effort and time into improving your investing effort. If you look at it in this manner, you will quickly realize selling too early or buying too late is not the problem. The problem is emotional investing or not even understanding that each stock is represented by a company in the real world that is surrounded by competitors, hardships and challenges