Jessie Ng

good analysis here, if aturmaju manage to sign the 20m project, the price likely to skyrocket from here

2019-01-23 17:10

Mamat_Win

Read what this guy said, dah boleh beli icps ni...

Posted by tonyS > Jan 18, 2019 01:01 AM | Report Abuse

I think if mother share RM 0.60, reasonable ICPS price will be around RM 0.41, cause conversion top up RM 0.19. The price different of Mother share and ICPS should around RM 0.19. For example, if mother share RM 0.60 and ICPS RM 0.20, then investor will probably go for ICPS, cause can top up RM 0.19, total cost RM 0.39 and sell it RM 0.60 for profit. The risk is, ICPS conversion takes one to two weeks. But if the counter fundamental is good, suppose the share price won't drop too much during few weeks. Even if it does, you still holding a mother share with lower cost. Well, losing money maybe, but not as 'hurt' as those RM 0.60. Investment always come with risk. :)

In other words, if ICPS price different more than RM 0.19 compare with mother share, sooner or later, the price gap will narrow down to around RM 0.19.

So those who want to TP from ICPS, will just sell it, no need to convert into Mother share for profit.

One thing good about ICPS compare with Warrant is, upon maturity, warrant will lapse and warrant holder lose all money. As for ICPS, it will mandatory convert into mother share by combining 20 ICPS into 1 mother share. At least investor get something compare with higher risk warrant.

Those who have faith with Q4 and 2018 financial result, perhaps will hold the share and wait for next wave. I check back the corporate exercise happen last year for Aturmju, apparently their timber business cannot profit already, very high chance they diversify to IT business then convert into technology counter. Major reason is Timber business keep losing money, IT business make huge profit, another reason is Technology counter usually get way higher PE ratio, if I not mistaken, should be around 22 times.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/malaysia/bursa-malaysia-price-earnings-rat...

Industrial counter PE ratio only 16 times.

From their ICPS prospectus, it mentioned that unbill invoice around RM 4.4M. Another RM 9 M project in discussion. Q3 profit RM 186K. Assuming their Q4 profit few Million, very likely this Aturmaju will turn into profit counter after so many years of losses. The IT diversification only happen during Q3 2018. During two quarter, they can make this kind of result, very good already. High hope for 2019. Now the uncertain is the MoU that just announced yesterday, RM 20M yearly sales is very good figure, provided Aturmaju can successfully sign the contract. If is remain only MoU.... then too bad. So those who wanna bet on this MoU and their 2018 profit, can go ahead to buy in. I myself will probably wait till at least the RM 20M project signed or they announce profit Q4 result (preferably few Million profit, if only couple of ten thousand, may not so attractive, IMO). My risk tolerance kind of low, haha. Low profit , low risk suit me more. Also if the RM 20M project contract signed, by looking at the technology counter PE ratio, Aturmaju share price still have huge room to increase, so no hurry.

Happy trading mate.

2019-01-24 09:38