In the past weekend, new cases in a single day in some countries hit a new high, and the global increase in new crown cases hit the largest in two months, which should bring different guidelines for gold trading and crude oil. Gold prices can get part of the hedging support, but fuel demand may be a threat to oil prices due to the slowdown caused by the epidemic. However, the performance of the trading market on Monday indicated that risk appetite was still continuing, and US stocks set record highs for two consecutive days.

 

This week’s Fed’s decision will be the primary focus of the commodity market. The rest of the time data, including the initial value of US GDP in the second quarter, the number of initial jobless claims and the PCE price index, can also affect the market. Today the Fed has begun to discuss interest rates, and market sentiment has gradually moved closer to caution.

 

The price of gold fell by 6.6% in the first half of this year, but it has rebounded since July. The price of gold will continue to play a demand advantage in hedging inflation and epidemic risks. Therefore, it has been converted to support for gold prices. However, its performance is also affected by the direction of global central bank interest rates. The strong impact of economic recovery.

 

As inflation and nominal interest rates gradually normalize, gold is more susceptible to further increases in real interest rates. After the gold price recorded its first weekly decline in five weeks last week, it closed below the $1,800 mark on Monday, and the performance of gold prices may be biased towards consolidation before the Fed’s decision.

 

Although Powell's press conference this week is still expected to make a dovish stance, the resolution stated that any details are a risk of volatility in terms of gold prices. If there is any statement that speeds up the discussion of tightening policies, or suggests that the possibility of reducing debt purchases or even raising interest rates in the next few months will increase, the price of gold will fall because of the pressure on the interest rate outlook.

 

The spot gold price has been subject to resistance from the 50 moving average since last week. It has been tested many times but failed to break through. The current 10 and 20 moving averages have also acted as an obstacle near the 1800 mark. It is expected that the price will continue to maintain consolidation before the Federal Reserve resolution is announced. The day's closing can return to the 1,800 US dollar mark, and look to the 1808/1810 US dollar as the initial target. If there is a chance to break through, it will look to the 1815/1820 US dollar level. For support, pay attention to last week's low and the current Fibonacci adjustment level of 1789/1786.

 

 

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