• Exports contracted by 5.5% yoy in November

• Imports slips 3.6% yoy

• Trade surplus at 15-month low

• Largest trade surplus for the period of January to November since 2009

• Broad-based declines across all three major export sectors

• Imports decline due to weaker capital goods

• Brakes are still on global trade

• Outlook on US-China trade war improved but we remain cautious on export performance

Malaysia’s exports in November 2019 dropped 5.5% yoy to RM80.8bn, compared to a 6.7% drop in October. Re-exports was valued at RM13.0bn registering a decline of 18.4% yoy and accounted for 16.1% of total exports. Domestic exports also recorded a decrease of 2.6% or RM1.8bn to RM67.8bn. Imports also slipped 3.6% yoy to RM74.3bn. Given a lower rate of decline in imports relative to exports, trade balance posted its weakest surplus at RM6.5bn – a 15-month low – following a record high surplus of RM17.3bn in October. On annual basis, trade surplus dipped by 23.1% as opposed to RM8.5bn registered in November 2018. Total trade in November 2019 decreased by 4.6% yoy to RM155.1bn.

On a mom basis, exports declined 10.8% whilst imports logged a growth of 1.4%. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports decreased 11.2% and imports up 4.8%.

Malaysia’s trade surplus in January to November 2019 was valued at RM124.7bn, expanded by 10.6% compared to RM112.8bn registered for the same period of 2018. This was the largest trade surplus recorded for the period of January to November since 2009. Against the backdrop of challenging global economic conditions and ongoing trade tensions, Malaysia’s total trade over the past 11 months declined by 3.0% to RM1.7tn. Exports during this period registered a decrease of 2.1% to RM899.9bn and imports contracted by 3.9% to RM775.2bn.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 6 Jan 2020