• Exports and imports rebounded to register a positive growth of 2.7% and 0.9% in December

• 4Q19 trade surplus up by 0.6%

• 2019 exports decreased by 1.7%; imports declined by 3.5%

• Trade surplus continued to register double-digit growth for 3 consecutive years

• Global trade picks up amidst US-China Phase One trade deal

• Exports to be vulnerable with the new outbreak of Coronavirus

Malaysia’s exports in December 2019, increased 2.7% yoy to RM86.4bn. Re-exports was valued at RM14.3bn registering a decline of 0.3% yoy and accounted for 16.6% of total exports. Meanwhile domestic exports recorded an increase of 3.3% or RM2.3bn to RM72.1bn. Imports marginally increased 0.9% yoy to RM73.8bn. Given a higher rate of exports relative to imports trade surplus was recorded at RM12.6bn, higher by 14.7% yoy. Total trade in December 2019 recorded a growth of 1.9% yoy to RM160.2bn.

On a mom basis, exports grew 6.8% whilst imports decreased 0.6%. The trade surplus registered an increase of RM6.0 billion or 90.3% as compared to the previous month. On seasonally adjusted terms, exports also increased 8.5% and imports down 1.6%.

Total trade for 4Q19 contracted by 3.6% to RM479.2bn compared with 4Q18. Exports decreased by 3.3% to RM257.9bn and imports dropped by 4.0% to RM221.4bn. This resulted in a trade surplus of RM36.5bn, up marginally by 0.6%. Compared to 3Q19, trade, exports and imports increased by 4.1%, 4.4% and 3.7%, respectively.

In 2019, Malaysia’s trade surplus continued to register double-digit growth for 3 consecutive years, widening by 11% to RM137.4bn compared to RM123.8bn in 2018. This was the largest trade surplus since 2009, representing Malaysia’s achievement of 22nd consecutive year of trade surplus. In tandem with softer global demand amid trade tensions and unfavourable external economic conditions, total trade contracted by 2.5% to RM1.84tn. Exports decreased marginally by 1.7% to RM986.4bn, from the preceding year while imports declined by 3.5% to RM849.0bn.

Source: BIMB Securities Research - 4 Feb 2020