Bursa Stock Talk
Tan Teng Boo now sees KLCI and S&P 500 hitting 2,400 and 3,000 in medium term
bursastocktalk
Publish date: Sun, 19 Feb 2017, 08:19 PM
This is on hindsight.
Tan Teng Boo had been bearish since April/May 2011.
He was still bearish on the equity markets last week, foreseeing KLCI possibly hitting 800-900 points and S&P 500 touching 1,350 in medium term. Just a week later, he made an unprecedented and very drastic revisions in index forecasts, revising his KLCI mid term possible target to 2,400, and S&P 500 to 3,000 from 1,350.
(See previous posting: another extreme forecast that went wrong.)
He was persistent on his bearish view and missed the the run-ups in stock markets.
Icap's average return since inception is still decent, thanks to exceptionally strong performance of the fund in the initial years.
Personally, I prefer a semi-log graph to linear graph in fund performance chart like this. It gives better depiction of a fund performance as the fund size grows. (In linear chart, a 30sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM3 looks more impressive than a 10sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM1, even though both having the same 10% growth.)
His global fund is not that lucky.
After about 9.5 years, the Global Fund generated a cumulative return of 5.9%, or at an annual compound rate of 0.6%. The fund's performance dipped below its benchmark, giving up the outperformance the fund had been enjoying since inception.
The International Value fund has a moderate cumulative return since inception, at a CAGR of 4.21%. It underperformed both benchmarks.
He had been reminding us the investing rule of never lose money. For a 50% loss in an investment, you need a 100% to make up the earlier loss.
Tan Teng Boo had been bearish since April/May 2011.
"Since April/May 2011, I have been bearish on equities globally, including that of Bursa Malaysia. My bearish views have not changed one iota" (source).
(See previous posting: another extreme forecast that went wrong.)
He was persistent on his bearish view and missed the the run-ups in stock markets.
Icap's average return since inception is still decent, thanks to exceptionally strong performance of the fund in the initial years.
Personally, I prefer a semi-log graph to linear graph in fund performance chart like this. It gives better depiction of a fund performance as the fund size grows. (In linear chart, a 30sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM3 looks more impressive than a 10sen increase in NAV from a reference price of RM1, even though both having the same 10% growth.)
His global fund is not that lucky.
He had been reminding us the investing rule of never lose money. For a 50% loss in an investment, you need a 100% to make up the earlier loss.
More articles on Bursa Stock Talk
DXN - Record Earnings, Quarterly Dividend Increases Further
Created by bursastocktalk | Apr 24, 2024
Crescendo - Potential Beneficiary of Data Center, JB-Singapore RTS (Update)
Created by bursastocktalk | Apr 01, 2024
KENANGA (6483) - A Growth Stock With Decent Dividend Yield?
Created by bursastocktalk | Jan 22, 2024
CRESNDO - Potential Beneficiary of Data Center, JB-Singapore RTS
Created by bursastocktalk | Dec 12, 2023
CANDIDLY SPEAKING: AGM of Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad (AIRPORT)
Created by bursastocktalk | Jun 01, 2023
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 78 comments
Tan Teng Boo is nothing but a fake.
Icap investors better sell Icap & put your money into FD! Can earn higher than icap.
2017-02-20 14:45
Tiam Tiam Booshit said
KLCI
1100 bearish
1300 bearish
1500 bearish
1700 bullish,bullish, bullish?????
What nonsense fund manager.
2017-02-20 15:03
TTB must have felt the wrath of Trump
Now he want to make Klci great again
;)
2017-02-20 15:12
I enjoy bad mouth about him.... As he is too proud and arrogant. As if nobody can make money from stock market except him.
2017-02-20 15:14
this is a rollover bull run...the Malaysian mkt is in dire need of fresh funds but question is who the foreign funds heck wants to earn ringgit which depreciates against all currencies imaginable? So it all boils down to left hand pass to right hand and vice versa. Syiok sendiri so they say. But if u believe in this story there might still have so worthless ringgits to be made after all....bcoz as long as the rollover machinery doesn't stops the fat hopes still exists. BUT these are good months to SELL into the rollover rally. REMEMBER rolling stones gathers no moss.
2017-02-20 15:45
This guy is a joker seriously, imagine market crash after he say bullish XD
2017-02-20 16:09
It's still not too late for TTB to change his mind entirely...a very good news. Anyway, we have been waiting him to add more power to push up the share price of the counters that we bought earlier. lol
2017-02-20 16:18
I nono why TTB attract so much attention. I think most of the portfolios in this forum competition easily beat him.
2017-02-20 17:08
I think most of the people here badmouthing TTB as they jealous of his ability to make RM6M-RM7M fee every year since 2011/2012 for doing nothing
2017-02-20 17:11
instead of condemning him, maybe we should be thankful to him as his revised outlook for market to 2400 helped KLSE to push thro 1711 successfully today and give much more needed momentum to break 1730 and beyond!! TQVM TTB!!
2017-02-20 18:05
Wat the, he can move the market? Must be a joke. He should be condemned. What unitholder get for years listening to his bear song? Then change tune for no apparent reasoning? Unitholder get negative return on their fd, lesser than fd face value if they opt out now. Tan boo boo get his ego trip for years.
2017-02-20 18:10
actually his previous' provision measure is unhealthy to the market, but now he change his mind, it's a good sign.
2017-02-20 19:36
Many Sifu in 13 investors have made tons of money since KLCI climbed from 1100 to current 1700 from year 2011 to 2016. Our so called warren buffet of Malaysia Tiap Tiap Booshit just wake up and his tune out of sudden changed from bearish to bullish without much concrete basis.
Is he a cong cam fun manager .
2017-02-20 20:18
only stupid listen to him ,give me 1 B fund , take the fees as manager everyone also "gu shen"
2017-02-20 21:58
when suddenly bears become bullish....in a way push the market..huge profits for all.
2017-02-20 22:01
I read the newsletter (chinese version) from icapital & TTB took 6 pages (from page 13 to page 18) to explain the reasons for changing his view from bearish to bullish.
He used the title “前所未有的修改” for the article.
My opinions are:
No.1 - all the reasons given by him were well known to many of us in i3 & nothing special & new, such as brexit, Trump's presidential win, China's factory output increased, blah blah blah, he is just trying to 自圆其说。
No.2 - Real Warren Buffet continue buy shares without looking too much on the market condition, we all seen that from news, WF bought shares every year. So do many sifus in i3, But NOT for TTB. TTB hold cash when market has been tough (He is nothing if compared to many sifus in i3 in term of returns)
No.3 - TTB may be very smart in asking people to put money to earn FD type return & earn himself 6mil a year BUT he is definitely a loser in stock market for past 5-8 years!
“You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ.” – Warren Buffett
2017-02-20 22:10
Why bother to subscribe toilet paper from TiamTiam Bullshit.
I3 investors forum with many Sifu around has provided clues on many stocks worth investing.
From year 2011 to 2016, he suggested to sell while KLCI was low,
Year 2017, KLCI has just cross 1700, he started to suggest a buy.
Isn't it a true sell low buy high kaki.
Watch out, Icap BHD investors , see where your your "fun manager" will bring you for a roller coaster ride.
2017-02-21 06:20
TTB lost his touch .he talks about macro economy and predicts crashes,
wow, he predicts.....
he talks about sports car nowdays and nothing else
2017-02-21 06:25
Posted by ttgipoh > Feb 21, 2017 06:25 AM | Report Abuse
TTB lost his touch .he talks about macro economy and predicts crashes,
wow, he predicts.....
he talks about sports car nowdays and nothing else
His forecast has not come true, he already bah tahan.
he is nothing different from layman in the streets , shouting sell for no reasons, now shouting buy when others are saying our KLCI is looked expensive if compare with SGX or Hk stock exchange market.
Of course, he is only good in his England writing, can tell a point in a long winded story,
just to confuse his readers .
2017-02-21 07:11
What a turn around...........now to come back as another person, cut away ALL the hair, change the voice, and the job (?), and the name too.
Not a single person above has anything nice to say.
Leave him be. Everyone has to cari makan
2017-02-21 10:46
TTB is a capable investor but he was trapped by he himself for the past few years. He was being too cocky when everything was going on smoothly according to his plan. Showing no appreciating and being too arrogant. Imagine what would happen to him after making a wrong decision and the whole public know about this....denying all the way to keep his egoism la....He is not a politician. lol
2017-02-21 11:45
TTB has to accept the blame for being ultra conservative ( not taking any risk whatsoever ) for the past 4-5 years. saying prices are above his target price. cheap, reliable and of below fair value ???
where got this type of bargain buys. if TTB thinks he can outsmart the market. He is wrong ( the past 4-5 years )Mr Market has other plans.TTB ICap is not performing ( but he still control Icap and charge his fees.) his ICap is funded by other people money
2017-02-21 11:54
Icap keeps dropping.
TTB - Spend some money buy back the shares and jack up the price lah!
U had 6-8m/year- still not enough and want others to suffer because of you kah?
2017-02-21 12:48
senile old man.... every newsletter say market going down to 500-800 points. now suddenly say 2400. zzzzz... go fly kite lah. what kind of analyst like that.
2017-02-22 11:21
Tiam-Tiam bullshit just sticks his grandmother tahi in his toilet papers, yet so many of his loyalists love it. Some more has to subscribe . Hahahaha.....
Anyway, I think is a good lesson for his blind loyalists.....
2017-02-22 12:20
TTB believe DJIA to close at 24,000 one day
And at the same time Klci will benefit from it since hot money will flow to the other market
But he may be mistaken because Trump will bring back all the jobs to the State and leaving nothing left to the other country. We will see only DJIA market going up and up while the rest of the world drooling at it.
2017-02-22 12:32
When the last bear also moving to the buy side, we may be entering a danger zone
2017-03-23 14:55
Post a Comment
Featured Posts
Apps
Top Articles
1
save malaysia!
2
Good Articles to Share
3
4
THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
5
save malaysia!
6
7
8
Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Eversendai Corporation made a remarkable comeback in FY2023 - Koon Yew Yin
#
Stock
Score
Daily Stocks
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
Stock Name
Last
Change
Volume
MQ Trading Signals
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Stock
Time
Signal
Duration
Featured Advertisers / Partners
Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PlsGiveBonus
Buy until me no money already now TTB want to punt the market
:)
2017-02-20 14:43