CGS-CIMB Research

Bursa Market Outlook: Can KLCI Hold Above the 50-day EMA?

sectoranalyst
Publish date: Mon, 05 Aug 2024, 09:09 AM
CGS-CIMB Research

Selling pressure weighed on Asian stock markets last Friday while Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-5.81%) took the hardest hit. The local benchmark FBMKLCI (KLCI) plunged 13.20pts or 0.81% to end the day at 1,611.05. The index dropped 1.83pts or 0.11% week-on-week. All sectors suffered losses for the day with construction (-5.03%), technology (-4.61%) and property (-3.80%) were among the biggest drags. Trading volume increased to 5.17bn (up from 3.51bn on Thursday) while trading value rose to RM3.98bn (up from RM2.71bn previously). Market breadth stayed negative for four days in a row as 155 gainers hammered by 1316 decliners.

Last Friday’s gap down sent the KLCI to retest the 50-day EMA with a long black candle. Can the index hold above the said EMA? The advance/decline ratio (A/D ratio) may be a ‘telling’ clue on the direction of the market. At Friday’s rate, the A/D ratio either signals that the current consolidation is finding its footing here at the 1,603-1,614 band or it is signalling the start of a deeper and longer correction. Any close below the dotted trend line (at 1,606) will likely confirm that the latter scenario is taking place. On the upside, 1,628 and 1,638 acts as resistances. NOTE: Our portfolio has reverted to risk-off mode this week.

Gainers: 155
Losers: 1316
Unchanged: 267

DOW: 39,737.26 (-1.51%)
S&P500: 5,346.56 (-1.84%)
NASDAQ: 16,776.16 (-2.43%)
FTSE100: 8,174.71 (-1.31%)
DAX: 17,661.22 (-2.33%)
HSI: 16,945.51 (-2.08%)
STI: 3,381.45 (-1.12%)
KLCI: 1,611.05 (-0.81%)

USD: 4.4970 (-1.58%)
AUD: 2.9271 (-1.81%)
SGD: 3.3772 (-1.08%)
EUR: 4.8660 (-1.20%)
GBP: 5.7285 (-1.71%)
JPY: 3.0677 (0.29%)
CNY: 0.6272 (-0.55%)
HKD: 0.5761 (-1.47%)

WTI: 73.52 (-3.66%)
Brent: 76.81 (-3.41%)
GOLD: 2,443.24 (-0.12%)
3rd MONTH FCPO: 3,917.00 (1.21%)
Msia 10 yr bond yield: 3.7070 (0.32%)
US 10 yr bond yield: 3.7904 (-4.67%)
ICE LIBOR USD 3M: 5.5037 (0.02%)
Bitcoin Futures: 63,450 (-4.51%)
Source: Bloomberg

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