Practice Makes Perfect

OSK + RHB Merger (26/12/11)

Chin Kok Tan
Publish date: Mon, 26 Dec 2011, 10:57 AM
Welcome to CK's Mergers & Acquisitions Theme Park - The BEST Has Yet to Come!
Important Date:
29-Sep>> Submitted application to BNM to seek for approval to start negotiations for possible merger.
13-Oct>> BNM approved the application with a valid period of 3 months.
Mid-Jan-2012>> Something must be announced before this date. Either the merger negotiation still on-going or call-off.

Rumors about this deal:
- OSK is looking for 2.5 times of Book Value (refer to table below for more info about BV).
- Unreliable and unindentified sources told that the final deal could be as high as 1.9-2.2 times of OSK's BV.

Payment Methods:
1) Purely Cash (almost not possible, OSK will not interested to sell off the whole stakes)
2) Purely share swap (possible, no cash involved, RHB no need to raise fund)
3) Cash + share swap (ideal case for all the shareholders)

Summary Table from CK:











CK>> I personally think 2.5 times of BV is quite unrealistic. Perhaps we could use the Maybank acquired Kim Eng's deal as benchmark, which is 1.9 times of BV. In my personal point of view (worth not even a single cent, because I'm not analyst, just a trader like those uncles-aunties), it should be at least 1.5 times BV and above because OSK has market territories in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, China, Hong Kong and Cambodia. By acquiring OSK, RHB investment unit would has a direct markets on those territories, this is the main purpose on the entire merger deal.

For your information, merger of traditional banking and investment banking is the current trend in market. On December 2011 itself, we see another two mergers deal are on-going:
1) UOB Singapore proposed to acquire Innosabah Securities Bhd. Malaysia.
2) OCBC Singapore proposed to acquire KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell Bhd. Malaysia.

CK>> Let's see if there will be something more solid details about this deal to be announced on this week, the last week of year 2011. Or else, we should look forward for the announcement on mid-Jan-2012.

SIZE does matter...

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