[duitKWSPkita] put warrants [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
[duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
duitKWSPkita
Publish date: Tue, 17 Mar 2015, 12:00 AM
duitKWSPkita
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HELPING THOSE LESS FORTUNATE
-- please offer your love and compassion, or make a charitable donation of time or money, to bring sunshine into the lives of those less fortunate....
Know your products well to trade, hedge & be ahead of markets!
-- please offer your love and compassion, or make a charitable donation of time or money, to bring sunshine into the lives of those less fortunate....
Know your products well to trade, hedge & be ahead of markets!
Disclaimer for Duit's publication
This publication is for general discussion only. It does not form part of any offer or recommendation, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person. Before committing to an investment, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the sharing for you. If you do not wish to seek financial advice, please consider carefully whether the finding is suitable for you.
Dear All Existing and Potential Traders,
Today, I would like to share with you about my understanding of FBMKLCI put warrants. Ideally, the products that offered in Bursa Malaysia are HB/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/J/K/L/M with the total of twelve (12) products. There are four products most widely traded in the market named FBMKLCI- HB/HG/HJ/HK simply because they have bigger trade volume.
I would like to share with you about some important notes and which may become your reference in future. Part A will explain more on the usage of put warrants while Part B provides you the technical info to maximise your profits. Lastly, Part C will share with you some Q&A that I have encountered it through my friends.
Bursa jie jie ask you to play put warrants with them. Please dont get trapped! Unless you familiar with the products.
If you think put warrant is just like Baccarat either 50%-50% WIN or LOSE. Then you are ready to lose all your money.
Based on my observation and after vet through these four months trading profile. I personally think PUT WARRANTS cannot be treated as investment tool but it can only serve us as speculation tool should we believe in near term there will be a massive market crash. Again, the key terms here are MOMENTUM and MARKET CRASH WITHIN SHORT PERIOD. Should these two criteria not exist your put warrants will be fluctuating all the time and serve no meaning.
Contents:
A. Put warrants can be traded as below:
1) Insurance
2) Speculation
3) Zig-zag trading
4) Others
B. Must know for put warrants trading:
1) Expiry date
2) Critical level (psychology support) of KLCI
3) Correlation
C. Question & Answer
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A1) Put warrants can be traded as an insurance to protect your gain from existing portfolio if you think there is a major correction in short period. Try to imagine when you play blackjack in the casino. You may need to think twice to buy "insurance" should you get 1st & 2nd cards (total 20 points) while the Dealer got her 1st card as ACE (Figure 1). On the other hand, you are not advisable to purchase any insurance should your first hand cards neither 20 nor great chance to hit 19 or 21 so you will not lose 2 bets at the same time - insurance and table bet (Figure 2). For some mathematic reasons I would like to advise the trader to buy the put warrants not more than 50% of your paper gain amount. Example, when you have paper gain of RM55k from PANAMY and NESTLE, you should not buy the put warrants more than RM22.5k.
Figure 1: You may consider to buy insurance to protect your gain.
Figure 2: No point to lose 2 sets of money since your chance to win the dealer is so slim
A 2) Many people are not aware that in Wall Street or other financial streets', those smart traders will organize the mathematical game in a profitable way.
For example today's KLCI index closed at 1800 pts and I predict KLCI will either rally extremely to 1900 pts or crash to 1600 pts extremely within 6 months. I will then speculate in both call warrants FBMKLCI- CK RM0.150 & FBMKLCI-HK RM0.130. After 6 months if the market crashes to 1600 pts I would get CK-RM0.000 but earn big from HK-RM0.350. Best still if the index shoots up to 1900 pts after 6 months I would have earned CK- RM0.420 and lose HK-RM0.020. Both cases also present to us how big the gain would be from the speculation if and only if the market reacts very extremely within short period. Sadly to say, your Bursa land does not provide this potential to you because the product seller CIMB has better market analyst to come out with SURE WIN products to earn your money.
A 3) Zig-zag trading means traders are looking for thin margin (few bids) for their contra play. This is the most common play as we are able to read the Europe market and US future development before we place our order at 4:30pm everyday. Experts and smart traders will tell you how they gain from zig-zag play and I believe most of the smart traders can achieve more than 92% accuracy on this kind of speculation. Of course one must read the external and internal economical & finance developments to produce the best risk factored prediction. For zig-zag traders they actually dont mind if the market goes up or down as long as they fulfill day trading for living.
A 4) Others mean some may buy because of friend or remisier's influence. They have no clear objective on how they want to make with the put warrants. Again, my humble advice for you all - waiting for durian runtuh without any intention is not a good habit in the investment field as it will widen your exposure to LOSE MONEY!
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B 1) Expiry date is classified as one of the most critical parameters in determining the product movement. Since put warrant is not an investment product so I believe no one will increase his interest to speculate in it towards the expiry date. Hence, you will notice the trade volume will be decreased over the time towards its expiry date. It is very risky for those who wants to dispose his put warrants as he may not be able to sell 1 or 2 bids lower but possibly to sell it by 20% discount from yesterday's closing price. That's why important key indicators like premium and gearing play very crucial role to tell when to stop your bet.
B 2) Critical level also can be called as psychological level of KLCI index is also considered as the prime determinant in put warrants speculation decision. Figure 3 presents to you that we have about 6 critical levels to monitor should you want to maximize your put warrants gain.
For example FBMKLCI -HG together with its exercise price of 1800. You will notice that the buying interest is not as attractive as FBMKLCI- HB (exercise price 1880) when the KLCI index is above 1800 points. It is because above the 1800 line FBMKLCI-HG can be valued as blank paper (no value) so would you want to bet on losing money item? However, when the KLCI index plunge down to 1799 pts the interest of speculation on FBMKLCI-HG getting higher because it has the value for speculation thereafter. The same theory is applied to FBMKLCI-HJ (exercise 1730) & FBMKLCI-HK (exercise 1735). I must say sorry that in this write up I am not going to explain in detail how high high the chances are that the KLCI index will breache 1730 points. Again, it is possible "if".....................
Figure 3: Critical level of KLCI index versus expiry date and exercise price of Top 4 put warrants
B 3) This is the most tricky part in that most of the traders are not even interested to analyze it with statistical approach. Once you master the intangible secret winning strategy well you can beome like a guru in put warrants field. Correlation mean how high the inter correlation between KLCI vs FMBKLCI- H(products). I can share with you that when I plot the graph with different prices the correlation R square will also give you different outcomes. There are two critical parts here which include pricing inputs and timeframe.
Once you go through the simulation you will find out some of the put warrants are overvalued while some are still undervalued. That's why you always see me highlighting "I will only buy this and that put warrants at what specific price."
If you dont mind I advise you to simulate the pricing as below:
KLCI index vs Put-warrant:
1) Use median index & price for both
2) Use day closing index & price for both
3) Use Highest index & price for both
4) Use lowest index & price for both
5) Use Lowest index of KLCI vs Highest price of put warrant
I dont mind to tell you that simulation No.5) can give you the best understanding on WHY WHY WHY and if you split the timeframe into before and after January 6' 2015 then you will benefit from more interesting outcomes. Enjoy your simulation game, if you want to strive for 15 WINS in a row you must put some effort into it. Trust me, MONEY will be rewarded should you be really committed and dedicated in all rounded thorough analysis. Figure 4 gives you some idea on the trendline looks like.
Figure 4: Correlation before and after January 6' 2015. You figure out.
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C. Question & Answer
1) Can you tell me which put warrant has the best value to invest.
Sorry, no such thing. It changes from time to time
2) Is it possible for my FBMKLCI-HK to breakeven before expiry date if I have bought it at very high price.
Answer is YES and NO. Not that straight away can be explained here.
3) If US market down tonight sure we will make money tomorrow.
Partially correct. You need to evaluate whether your Boleh Land willing to follow US market movement and secondly you need to understand whether your put product is within or out of the critical level. Lastly, Overvalued or Undervalued will talk louder in all cases.
4) Cant think of any now. Can I ask you further in i3?
YES. Feel free to approach me should you need any guideline in put warrants. I am not really very good in put warrants but I will try my best to accomodate you.
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My intention to do this write up is to highlight to you what are the analysis you need to perform before the speculation activity. Friendly reminder to laddies and gentlemen BETTING is not right! If you wish to speculate then please speculate with complete feasibilty study in backgound job to reduce your risks.
Sorry for any incovenience caused.
Warmest Regards,
duitKWSPkita
More articles on [duitKWSPkita] put warrants [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 50 of 59 comments
Thank you very much for the effort, Duit.....appreciate it....though I need more understanding skill to digest it...
2015-03-17 13:09
hahahaha......
must not support///// bad must feedback to me. As for public publishment, we are holding accountability and responsibility.
When free I will produce my next write up. Hope readers can feedback to me. I suspect my write up's quality actually. I jz cannot create rubbish to the public forum right...
2015-03-18 18:59
whatever come out from you will be words of wisdom
there will never be rubbish
2015-03-18 19:27
Ohhh no. U made me nervous.
Ok ok. I shall improve my skill of presentation in my next write up.
2015-03-18 19:35
DUIT Bro. Really a very good write up. Your intentions to help people are beyond greatness. You are the "Robin Hood' for investors here. :) :)
" Knowledge is POWER but only When Shared"
Thank You DUIT. Goodnight and wish to read more of your articles.
2015-03-18 22:45
Hi LyyInvestor......
Thanks for reading. Please feedback to me anything so I have chance to imrpove my presentation skill and serve u better in my next write up.
2015-03-18 22:57
DUIT. Honestly speaking nothing else to improve. I believed when a person have a pure intention and passion to help as much peoples as possible , then the knowledge and informations that are presented will be very well organized and furnished perfectly. Hopefully more DUIT will appeared in i3.
2015-03-18 23:11
Thanks for your motivation words. I will continue to provide good findings to the community.
Cheers brother...
2015-03-18 23:14
Anyway there are already few individuals in this i3 that have same intentions as DUIT. Thank you to Connie, Trustme , Icon888, simon84, Purebull, Rchi, Tjhldg , Matrixcool, Profitman, LC Chong, ChineseTea , Alpha Trader. Sorry for those that i have missed out. You all are very good person with pure heart that help people without asking for return. Salute you all. Wish you all stay Healthy , Happy and Wealthy always. Cheer and goodnight. :) :)
2015-03-18 23:19
LyyInvestor bro, I never hope for anything except hoping to see you become one of the mentioned name in ppl's list. You will! I believe in you 100%.
2015-03-18 23:23
Morning DUIT bro and Thank you .
That is my intention as well and that is why i am stalking them. :) :) Still in the learning process . Wanna learn from the experienced and successful person. :) :)
Hope you all have a wonderful day ahead . Cheers ...
2015-03-19 08:59
Hi Duit, thousand thanks for sharing your knowledge and analysis. I have learnt much. God bless.
2015-03-20 10:01
My pleasure rl2014.......
Thanks for reading. I promise to improve better.
2015-03-20 10:02
Abang Duit kita percaya 100% cun gila. Monday kita 100% support ini macam kita buy put warrants...jangan jual just buy sampai guna margin. Ini tips banyak cun punya 100% gurenti tak salah, kita not forget Duit sifu ini macam
2015-03-28 12:19
Duit1mdb friend,
Don't pijak me ma. I know u wanna kill me off. I never say I'm 100% Chun Chun.
I wrote the article becoz several frens queried me why I said market is bearish. I need answer them although I MIGHT BE 100% WRONG. AT LEAST THEY KNOW I GOT NO INTENTION TO CHEAT THEIR MONEY!
REPEAT! DONT TRUST ME BLINDLY. TAKE IT AS READING MATERIAL.
duit1mdb, if it bring trouble to you. I apologize for that.
Warmest regards,
Duit
2015-03-28 14:11
Sifu Duit sangat humble tapi tips cun. Kita serang short futures and buy put warrants. Gerenti untung 100%. KLCI pasti menjunam mulai besok. Macam cakap Sifu Duit, klci menjunam sampai 1670. Kaya kita nanti
2015-03-29 11:41
If follow duit from this blog how much money has one made? Next time when a blog created must put counter price as well.
2015-03-29 12:36
Dear duit1mdb,
Nice to see your reply again. I think I have to handle your comment carefully and professionally.
Few things must be highlighted to you:
1) duit is humble? Not the key point here
2) nobody certify how accurate of duit's stock analysis
3) duit never propose to short futures and buy put warrants
4) duit never say KLCI index sure plunge
5) duit noted on your prediction of KLCI index 1670, your prediction well noted.
Please do not abuse the resources of the public forum.
I sincerely looking forward to seeing your cooperation.
Warmest regards,
Duit
Posted by duit1mdb > Mar 29, 2015 11:41 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit sangat humble tapi tips cun. Kita serang short futures and buy put warrants. Gerenti untung 100%. KLCI pasti menjunam mulai besok. Macam cakap Sifu Duit, klci menjunam sampai 1670. Kaya kita nanti
2015-03-29 13:18
Dear donfollowblindly,
Thanks for your presence in this critical time.
Well said. It is my principle do not follow people's call/proposal/recommendation/tip blindly.
I never hear anyone made money from duit's buy call. So, I won't be able to responsible for your gain/loss should you react upon this write up.
Sorry will write to you in slower pace. Was busy with some VVIP at Grandprix F1 Sepang.
Chat again.
2015-03-29 13:31
Jangan panic. Buy put warrants and short futures. Sifu Duit sudah buat research very cun. Trust 100% untung. Klci jatuh menjunam, sekarang naik tipu saja
2015-03-30 11:16
Selamat pagi dan selamat sejahtera Tuan duit1mdb,
Apa dah terjadi dengan awak? Kenapa sentiasa lupa baca komen ku di atas je?
Seperti biasa duit ingin menguruskan perkara Tuan dengan berwaspada dan lebih teliti kerana dari segi penglibatan atas 11 komen menunjukkan "niat" yang jelas sekali. TERIMA KASIH ATAS KESUDIAN TUAN BUKA SATU AKAUN BARU UNTUK KOMEN DALAM BLOG DUIT.
Dua perkara perlu dijelaskan di sini!
1) tAK PERLU lah nak ingatkan orang ramai sini duit akan gagal dalam analisa tersebut. Biar la rakan-rakan menentukan pilihan mereka untuk "LONG" atau "SHORT" futures. Cuma ingatan satu saja, kalau awak nak beli PUT WARRANTS sekarang maka awak akan terdedah kepada kerugian besar!!!!!!!! AKu tak pasti la, mungkin sesiapa yang pakai lutut(knee) untuk berfikir akan IKUT DUIT BELI PUT WARRANTS PADA MASA KINI.
2) Usahlah nak tumbangkan Duit sedangkan semua orang dah tau Duit seorang pelabur yang masih cetek pengetahuan dalam dunia pelaburan. Selain itu, memang tak perlu sia siakan usaha Tuan bagi menyindir/mengejek Duit bila masa KLCI naik mendadak.
Tuan duit1mdb, anda amat dialu-alukan untuk bergiat aktif di sini tapi seperti mana yang di sifatkan di atas usahlah sia-sia keusahaan anda dalam menumbangkan DUIT. Duit selaku orang baru tak pernah bimbang akan kegagalan, dan tak pernah fikir MENGAKU KISILAPAN adalah perkara yang memalukan. Dalam proses pembelajaran, berani untuk bertanggung KESILAPAN and sentiasa waras dengan PUNCA KESILAPAN akan mempercepat lagi process pembelajaran.
AKhir sekali, semoga anda Berjaya di semua lapangan tak kira kaunter saham, long futures atau short futures.
Sekian terima kasih,
duit
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 30, 2015 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
Sekarang ini masa kita buy put warrants and short futures. Ini Sifu Duit ada bagi warning klci menjunam stat this week
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 30, 2015 11:20 AM | Report Abuse
Word from Sifu Duit :-
As a market opportunist I will take proactive step to prepare for the immediate downturn start from next week.
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 30, 2015 11:16 AM | Report Abuse
Jangan panic. Buy put warrants and short futures. Sifu Duit sudah buat research very cun. Trust 100% untung. Klci jatuh menjunam, sekarang naik tipu saja
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 29, 2015 11:41 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit sangat humble tapi tips cun. Kita serang short futures and buy put warrants. Gerenti untung 100%. KLCI pasti menjunam mulai besok. Macam cakap Sifu Duit, klci menjunam sampai 1670. Kaya kita nanti
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 29, 2015 11:40 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit has spoken, besok kita short futures and buy put warrants. Memang untung 100% dari tips Sifu Duit Kita senang jadi kaya
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 02:40 PM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit, wah so humble. Trust 100%. You memanng cun bagi tip 100% untung. Terima kasih...Monday mesti short futures and buy put warrants HK 0.10
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 02:04 PM | Report Abuse
You apa tau Calvin, ini Duit cun kao kao, gerenti 100% untung start Monday. Short futures and buy put warrants. Nanti menyesal bila index jatuh menjunam start Monday. Trust Duit, untung 100%
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remember Bonesai? now comes the Eyecon8888
Mar 28, 2015 01:51 PM | Report Abuse
Kita tau Duit sifu very cun, sudah bagi tips cun Monday ramai-ramai short futures and buy put warrants. Kita support 100% sama Duit
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 28, 2015 01:48 PM | Report Abuse
Chunweilah, support 100%, kita buy put warrants and short futures Monday ni, ya?
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] put warrants FBMKLCI - HB/HG/HJ/HK [trade, hedge & be ahead of markets]
Mar 28, 2015 12:19 PM | Report Abuse
Abang Duit kita percaya 100% cun gila. Monday kita 100% support ini macam kita buy put warrants...jangan jual just buy sampai guna margin. Ini tips banyak cun punya 100% gurenti tak salah, kita not forget Duit sifu ini macam
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Blog: [duitKWSPkita] KLCI Index: The view of market opportunist?
Mar 28, 2015 12:14 PM | Report Abuse
Abang Duit tips kao kao, kita short futures, buy put warrants harga 0.10 Monday ni...place your bet...kita kuat percaya sama duit
2015-03-30 12:42
Sifu Duit sudah cakap hari ni dia beli HG. Kita tolong sama tolong. Sudah ada tip cun apa lagi. Short futures and buy put warrants gerenti untung 100%
2015-03-31 10:14
Selamat pagi sifu duit1mdb,
Apa khabar? Semoga anda dalam keadaan BEST GILA.
Kenapa Tuan nak datang cabar setipa hari? Sekiranya anda sudi sila maklumkan apa yang perlu saya lakukan supaya dapat menjauhi daripada gangguan anda.
Ribuan terima kasih disertakan bagi meyempurnakan permintaan tersebut
Posted by duit1mdb > Mar 31, 2015 10:14 AM | Report Abuse
Sifu Duit sudah cakap hari ni dia beli HG. Kita tolong sama tolong. Sudah ada tip cun apa lagi. Short futures and buy put warrants gerenti untung 100%
2015-03-31 10:23
do you mind explain further undervalue and ovevalue using hb and hg since you have shown their corelation, thanks.
2015-04-01 00:00
Tuan duit1mdb,
Selamat tengah hari Tuan, Tuan dimaklumkan bahawa sikap & perlakuan Tuan tidak memuaskan kerana Tuan diam diam untung duit tanpa kongsikan berita baik tersebut. Mahupun HG awak untung nipis sebanyak 5.6% iaitu kenaikan sebanyak RM0.005 daripada RM0.090 ke RM0.095.
Sepatutnya Tuan kongsikan berita yang memberangsangkan ini kepada kami supaya penonton (tak untung apa apa) seperti kami akan memberi dorongan kepada Tuan di spanjang perlawanan.
semoga maju jaya!
Sekian, terima kasih.
duit1mdb Sifu Duit sudah cakap hari ni dia beli HG. Kita tolong sama tolong. Sudah ada tip cun apa lagi. Short futures and buy put warrants gerenti untung 100%
2015-04-01 12:27
twobits:
belum count belum tau.... rasa tak perlu count sebab tak perlu tau.... at 1830 RM0.130/RM0.135 reasonable lo..............
why??
Posted by twobits > Apr 3, 2015 03:13 PM | Report Abuse
duit: based on CI 1830 index, how much is FBMKLCI-HB worth right now?
2015-04-03 15:16
HB - exercise price 1880. conversion ratio 667
1880 - 1830 = 70 / 667 = 0.075
HB price now = 0.125
2015-04-03 15:41
still got time so less ppl throw it... HK and HJ short of time so bit massive later
2015-04-03 15:44
Seafood duit1mdb,
Sure Ada beli... Die hard supporter ma...
Fortunately I cut loss Liao.. Loss about 50% of the latest Range Rover. The red color one. Now I hide myself in Holland... A small little hut beside canal.
2015-05-15 12:16
AR?
Ok ma Holland. Top 7 in Europe zone... I dunno about you. I m ok in Netherlands
2015-05-15 12:33
Hahahaha...seafood di Holeland Ipoh mah bukan Holland...seafood manyak dreaming
2015-05-15 12:41
Aiya....oi seh....
WA memang regular Netherlands ma.... Everytime loss money also go Holland ma......
WA selalu di Netherlands n London ma.... Bukan ipoh ma..
ipoh pernah pergi sekali last time
2015-05-15 12:44
congradddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd
in your speculationnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
2015-05-29 12:41
Wakakakakak...
I wanna congrad themmmmmmmmmm
No proud at all.... Think they proud of their pockets lo... Correct... My timing worse than everything.
Accept ur point... Thanks ya F22Raptor
2015-05-29 12:48
F22Raptor...
I love you very much.... Didn't you see suddenly I jump out to update my blog? I seldom do that right? Love you very much... You are my lucky star. Jz now jz BET with 2 of my associates that F22RAPTOR will jump out within 3 days to comment..
Alamakkkkk..... Good news is I menang whole week lunch... I can order watever I like.... Brother you are my lucky star... I decide when I wanna to 'use' you!
Another thing from my fren. Congrad has nothing to do with Proud....cannot mess up, if not very sour!
Posted by F22Raptor > May 29, 2015 12:45 PM | Report Abuse
Your timing off by two n half months,nothing to be proud of.wakakakaka
2015-05-29 12:57
Alamak..
So bad... Kena reject on the spot..
Then I can only say I thank you.
2015-05-29 13:18
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lan Yong How
though I still need to learn about put warrants Ifind your article very comprehensive,and I take this opportunity to thank you for all your sharing in different ways.DR. DUIT YOU ARE THE BEST.
2015-03-17 10:14