23/4/2018

FCPO Jul 18

Previous Close: 2408 -1

Thunderstorms, heavy rain and strong winds expected over Sabah and Terengganu on Friday, according to warning by Malaysian Meteorological Department. Heavy and prolonged rain can cause floods, disrupt harvest and transport of palm fruits. Also, money managers have increased their bearish soy oil bets by 8,028 net-short positions to 40,827, weekly CFTC data on futures and options show. The net-short position was the most bearish in a year (Bloomberg). Sentiment were largely mixed and market is awaiting latest production data for direction.

In weekly chart, market closed with indecision candle while the whole week range were lower than 50% range or previous week Bearish Marubozu candle. This indicate the trend remain bearish. Daily ATR at 36, volatility remain low as 5 years average at 40. Hourly chart remain in a range, market likely to test previous high 2434 as Dalian palm olein trading with +0.2% changes.

FCPO spread remain neutral as cost of carry changes remain uncertain. CPO forward curve have priced in rising production and reflect contango currently.

*Event to monitor*

1-20 Apr MPOA

1-20 Apr SPPOMA

Announcement of potential export tax suspension

*Wave & Fibo projection*

Major Impulsive Swing  : Bearish with target at 2311

Minor Swing       : Correction size between 2450 to 2414, price below this zone remain bearish while above 2450 indicate trend reversal.

Current Swing   : Correction size between 2403 to 2385

*Classic Support & Resistance*

Resistance:  2450 2434

Support:   2402, 2385

*Recommend Trading Plan for the day*

1.            Buy 2410 if price open without gap, stop 2403, TP1 2417, TP2 2424

*FCPO Margin Requirement*

Intraday     MYR 2250

Overnight  MYR 4500

Spread       MYR 1000

Disclaimer: This message is for information purpose only. Reproduction or dissemination to third party is prohibited. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor shall it be constructed as an offer/solicitation or recommendation to buy/sell any derivatives. Investors should make their own informed decisions by consulting your own independent advisor(s) before investing. We accept no responsibility or liability for loss or damage that may arise from the reliance of this message. For the full information regarding the derivatives mentioned herein please refer to the relevant website.

To get more information on local and foreign futures markets, u can join us at telegram and Facebook. 

Join link: https://t.me/investorsdoctoracademy 

Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/investorsdoctoracademy/