i3gambler

My Fair Value Calculation ~ BKAWAN, KLK, SIMEPLT, SWKPLNT, TAANN

i3gambler
Publish date: Sun, 19 Jun 2022, 05:09 PM

01) Refer to the above screen shot.

02) Must have the CPO price profile for fair value estimation.

03) I believe CPO price will converge to 10 years average (net of cost inflation).

04) The green dot pointed by the blue arrow and beyond is my prediction.

05) The convergence is quite as fast as it was shooting up.




06) Refer to the above screen shot, EPS estimation on SWKPLNT.

07) Do the same to BKAWAN, KLK, SIMEPLT and TAANN.




08) Refer to the above screen shot.

09) Now I have estimated EPS for the next 5 years.

10) All 20 nos of estimated EPS to be discounted back (by 8%) to present value.

11) Assume fair PE ratio of 12, 20, 25, 12, and 15 (at the 20th quarter) to BKAWAN, KLK, SIMEPLT, SWKPLNT and TAANN.

12) For example, Fair Value at 20th quarter for BKAWAN = 0.5308*4*12 = 25.48, discount back (by 8%) to present value.

13) This is how I get the present Fair Value, BKAWAN=29.67, KLK=27.40, SIMEPLT=3.86, SWKPLNT=3.11 and TAANN=5.37.



    

Important Notes:

14) No Buy or Sell Call, consult your dealer for advice.

15) Invest at your own Risk.

16) I am currently holding some BKAWAN and SWKPLNT, and may Buy or Sell any time I wish.




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1 person likes this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

i3gambler

Aiya, look like CPO will plunge faster than what I have predicted earlier.

2 months ago

calvintaneng

as long as Sunflower oil, soyoil and canola oil holding up the short term downside of palm oil will see rebound

As for Simeplant it has 3.3 Million acres of plantation lands

many of it's palm oil lands in peninsula are freehold and book value only Rm10k to Rm12k per acre

current market value Rm200,000 per acre if sold

2 months ago

i3gambler

True, the value of SIMEPLT is in its estate lands in Peninsula,
That is why I give fair PE of 25 times to SIMEPLT versus KLK's 20 times.

2 months ago

Raymond Tiruchelvam

excellent analysis, and i see that your cpo price averaged at 5,560 which is reasonable, but i believe average will be lower at between 4,600-4,850.... nevertheless, still in profit position and able to declare dividend..... but sime seems to be on lower side while TAann seems to be on higher side.

2 months ago

i3gambler

By 31.03.2027
My prediction is that CPO will be around the current 10 years average (Net of Cost Inflation), i.e. 2800.

The meaning of Net of Cost Inflation is that,
If the cost in 2027 is x% higher than now,
Then the actual CPO would be (1+x%)*2800 in 2027.

BKAWAN and SWKPLNT would be the cheapest now and also in 2027.

I give different fair PE Ratio for the following reasons:

1) 12 times for BKAWAN,
Excellent management,
But fund managers are not interested to invest, as the trading volume is low,
Difficult for Fund managers to buy and sell.

2) 20 times for KLK,
Excellent management.

3) 25 times for SIMEPLT,
Biggest plantation company and own big estate lands in Peninsula.

4) 12 times for SWKPLNT,
Small company,
Pay good dividend,
Excellent management from TAANN,
Sarawak Government might help to get Indonesia worker,

5) 15 times for TAANN,
Mid Cap company,
Pay Good dividend
Excellent management,
There are fund managers interested to invest in this company.


1 month ago

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